Egypt’s economic vulnerability to climate change

Abstract

Climate change is likely to have profound economic consequences for Egypt. This study evaluates the potential economic impacts resulting from changes in water supplies, agriculture, air quality, heat stress, and tourism. Other sensitive sectors, including water pollution, energy consumption, and biodiversity, were not assessed. Sea level rise threatens agricultural land and property in the Nile Delta. Higher temperatures can reduce agricultural production, a situation that can be made worse with lower water supplies. As a result, unemployment and food prices may increase, risking increased malnutrition. Human health in Cairo could be adversely affected by increased particulate matter and heat stress, potentially leading to thousands of deaths valued at tens of billions of Egyptian pounds per year. Annual tourist revenues are estimated to decrease as well. Total economic losses for the sectors mentioned above are estimated to reach ~200 to 350 billion Egyptian pounds (EGP; US $36−64 billion), which is equivalent to 2−6% of future gross domestic product. KEY WORDS: Climate change • Egypt • Economy Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher 2.2. Climate change scenarios The scenarios are from Elshamy et al. (2009), who used the A1B emissions scenario (IPCC) to estimate Blue Nile flow. We selected 3 GCMs from Els hamy et al. (2009) that presented the highest, lowest, and intermediate flow levels across the model results. The average change estimated across the 17 models in Elshamy et al. (2009) is a small decrease in flow. The scenarios are (1) large decrease in flow: Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (Canada; CGCM63); (2) small decrease in flow: Max Planck Institute for Meteoro logy (Germany; ECHAM); (3) increase in flow: National Institute for Environmental Studies Medium Resolution (Japan; MIROC-M).We used the 'SimCLIM' tool (CLIMsystems 2011) to develop estimates of changes in temperature and precipitation for Cairo and the High Aswan Dam (HAD) due to climate change (Table 3).The SLR scenarios were developed by the Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) of the Ministry of Water Resources and Industry (Elshinnawy 2008). Elshinnawy (2008) used current SLR trends and estimates of acce lerated eustatic SLR from the IPCC (2007). Elshinnawy (2008) estimated re lative SLR, which includes subsidence in the Nile Delta (Elshinnawy 2008; see also Stanley 1990, Hassaan & Abdra bo 2013), for 3 sites on the Mediterranean in 2025, 2050, and 2075;we used the 2025 estimate for 2030 be cause the 2 periods are close in time. We used the 2075 estimate for 2060 be cause SLR may be much higher than estimated by the IPCC (2007) (e.g. Oppenheimer et al. 2007, Natio nal Research Council 2012. SLR scenarios are displayed in Table 4.

The Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Egyptian Livestock Production

“…In 2007, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation climate change adaptation strategy [50] anticipated that the temperature will increase 1 • C by 2025, which appears likely to be true; similarly, the potential impact of climate change on the Egyptian economy report [51] anticipated an increase between 0.9 and 1 • C by 2030.…”

Evaluation of Soil Quality in Arid Western Fringes of the Nile Delta for Sustainable Agriculture

“…e evaluated area has been reclaimed during the last two decades and is cultivated with diverse kinds of fruits and vegetables [46]. is kind of cultivation is usually associated with an increase of underground water irrigation, and the ongoing climate change put a threat on the soil quality and sustainable agriculture that reduces the economic value of the lands [47,48]. Additionally, the excessive extraction of groundwater for irrigation resulted in land subsidence, which could also affect the integrity of the soil profiles in the area [49].…”

Heat shock proteins as a key defense mechanism in poultry production under heat stress conditions

“…Economically, HS causes severe economic losses estimated at 240 million USA dollars per year in the poultry sector ( Salem et al, 2022 ), representing, for example, about 7% of total HS-caused losses in the French livestock industry in 2003 ( Abdelnour et al, 2020 ; Ashour et al, 2020 ). The European summer thermal waves caused roughly 4 million mortalities in broilers ( Smith et al 2014 ). Therefore, safe solutions must be found to solve the problems related to HS in birds ( Saeed et al, 2019 ; Ezzat el al., 2024 ).…”