The Brewer-Dobson mean circulation and its variability are investigated in the ERA-Interim over the period 1989-2010 by using an off-line Lagrangian transport model driven by analysed winds and heating rates. <br><br> At low and mid-latitudes, the mean age of air in the lower stratosphere is in good agreement with ages derived from aircraft, high altitude balloon and satellite observations of long-lived tracers. At high latitude and in the upper stratosphere, we find, however that the ERA-Interim ages exhibit an old bias, typically of one to two years. <br><br> The age spectrum exhibits a long tail except in the low tropical stratosphere which is modulated by the annual cycle of the tropical upwelling. The distribution of ages and its variability is consistent with the existence of two separate branches, shallow and deep, of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Both branches are modulated by the tropical upwelling and the shallow branch is also modulated by the subtropical barrier. <br><br> The variability of the mean age is analysed through a decomposition in terms of annual cycle, QBO, ENSO and trend. The annual modulation is the dominating signal in the lower stratosphere and is maximum at latitudes greater than 50° in both hemispheres with oldest ages at the end of the winter. The phase of the annual modulation is also reversed between below and above 25 km. The maximum amplitude of the QBO modulation is of about 0.5 yr and is mostly concentrated within the tropics between 25 and 35 km. It lags the QBO wind at 30 unit{hPa} by about 8 months. The ENSO signal is small and limited to the lower northen stratosphere. <br><br> The age trend over the 1989–2010 period, according to this ERA-Interim dataset, is significant and negative, of the order of −0.3 to −0.5 yr dec⁻¹, within the lower stratosphere in the Southern Hemisphere and south of 40° N in the Northern Hemisphere below 25 km. The age trend is positive (of the order of 0.3 yr dec⁻¹) in the mid stratosphere but there is no region of consistent significance. This suggests that the shallow and deep Brewer-Dobson circulations may evolve in opposite directions. <br><br> Finally, we find that the long lasting influence of the Pinatubo eruption can be seen on the age of air from June 1991 until the end of 1993 and can bias the statistics encompassing this period

Abstract. The stratospheric circulation determines the transport and lifetime of key trace gases in a changing climate, including water vapor and ozone, which radiatively impact surface climate. The unusually warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event aligned with a disrupted Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) caused an unprecedented perturbation to this circulation in 2015–2016. Here, we quantify the impact of the alignment of these two phenomena in 2015–2016 on lower stratospheric water vapor and ozone from satellite observations. We show that the warm ENSO event substantially increased water vapor and decreased ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO disruption significantly decreased global lower stratospheric water vapor and tropical ozone from early spring to late autumn. Thus, this QBO disruption reversed the lower stratosphere moistening triggered by the alignment of the warm ENSO event with westerly QBO in early boreal winter. Our results suggest that the interplay of ENSO events and QBO phases will be crucial for the distributions of radiatively active trace gases in a changing future climate, when increasing El Niño-like conditions and a decreasing lower stratospheric QBO amplitude are expected.

The stratospheric circulation is an important element of climate as it determines the concentration of radiatively active species like water vapor and aerosol above the tropopause. Climate models predict that increasing greenhouse gas levels speed up the stratospheric circulation. However, these results have been challenged by observational estimates of the circulation strength, constituting an uncertainty in current climate simulations. Here, we quantify the effect of volcanic aerosol on the stratospheric circulation focusing on the Mount Pinatubo eruption and discussing further the minor extratropical volcanic eruptions after 2008. We show that the observed pattern of decadal circulation change over the past decades is substantially driven by volcanic aerosol injections. Thus, climate model simulations need to realistically take into account the effect of volcanic eruptions, including the minor eruptions after 2008, for a reliable reproduction of observed stratospheric circulation changes.

The age of stratospheric air is calculated over 22 yr of the ERA-Interim reanalysis using an off-line Lagrangian transport model and heating rates. <br><br> At low and mid-latitudes, the mean age of air is in good agreement with observed ages from aircraft flights, high altitude balloons and satellite observations of CO₂ and SF₆. The mid-latitude age spectrum in the lower stratosphere exhibits a long tail with a peak at 0.5 yr, which is maximum at the end of the winter, and a secondary flat maximum between 4 and 5 yr due to the combination of fast and slow branches of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and the reinforced barrier effect of the jet. At higher altitudes, the age spectrum exhibits the footprint of the annual modulation of the deep Brewer-Dobson circulation. <br><br> The variability of the mean age is analysed through a decomposition in terms of annual cycle, QBO, ENSO and trend. The annual modulation is the dominating signal in the lower stratosphere and in the tropical pipe with amplitude up to one year. The phase of the oscillation is opposite in both hemisphere beyond 20&deg; and is also reversed below and above 25 km with maximun arising in mid-March in the Northern Hemisphere and in mid-September in the Southern Hemisphere. The tropical pipe signal is in phase with the lower southern stratosphere and the mid northern stratosphere. The maximum amplitude of the QBO modulation is of about 0.5 yr and is mostly concentrated within the tropics between 25 and 35 km. It lags the QBO wind at 30 hPa by about 8 months. The ENSO signal is small and limited to the lower northen stratosphere. <br><br> The trend is significant and negative, of the order of −0.3 to −0.5 yr dec^&minus;1, within the lower stratosphere in the Southern Hemisphere and under 40&deg; N in the Northern Hemisphere below 25 km. It is positive (of the order of 0.3 yr dec^&minus;1) in the mid stratosphere but there is no region of consistent significance. This suggests that the shallow and deep Brewer-Dobson circulations may evolve in opposite directions. It is however difficult to estimate a reliable long-term trend from only 22 yr of data. For instance, a positive trend is found in the lower stratosphere if only the second half of the period is considered in agreement with MIPAS SF₆ data excepted in the northern polar region and at high altitude. <br><br> Finally, it is found that the long lasting influence of the Pinatubo eruption can be seen on the age of air from June 1991 until the end of 1993 and can bias the statistics encompassing this period. In our analysis, this eruption shifts the trend towards negative values by about 0.2 to 0.3 yr dec^&minus;1

Abstract. An accelerating Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a robust signal of climate change in model predictions but has been questioned by trace gas observations. We analyse the stratospheric mean age of air and the full age spectrum as measures for the BDC and its trend. Age of air is calculated using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data to assess the robustness of the representation of the BDC in current generation meteorological reanalyses. We find that the climatological mean age significantly depends on the reanalysis, with JRA-55 showing the youngest and MERRA-2 the oldest mean age. Consideration of the age spectrum indicates that the older air for MERRA-2 is related to a stronger spectrum tail, which is likely associated with weaker tropical upwelling and stronger recirculation. Seasonality of stratospheric transport is robustly represented in reanalyses, with similar mean age variations and age spectrum peaks. Long-term changes from 1989 to 2015 turn out to be similar for the reanalyses with mainly decreasing mean age accompanied by a shift of the age spectrum peak towards shorter transit times, resembling the forced response in climate model simulations to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. For the shorter periods, 1989–2001 and 2002–2015, the age of air changes are less robust. Only ERA-Interim shows the hemispheric dipole pattern in age changes from 2002 to 2015 as viewed by recent satellite observations. Consequently, the representation of decadal variability of the BDC in current generation reanalyses appears less robust and is a major uncertainty of modelling the BDC.

The present precipitation and temperature patterns and expected future changes (2073–2098) in Africa are investigated using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 2‐Earth System (HadGEM2‐ES) under the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) protocols for historical and future emission scenarios simulations. In a CMIP5 multimodel analysis, the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation simulated by HadGEM2‐ES were very close to the multimodel ensemble mean. HadGEM2‐ES temperature simulation compares well with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis over the 1979–2004 periods, except for a summer overestimation in Central Africa, and a winter underestimation in tropical West Africa. The precipitation simulation compared well with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data from 1979 to 2004 over the entire Africa, except in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the model fails to capture adequately the transition phase of the monsoon circulation. The dry regimes over Northern Africa as well as the wetter regime occurring over Central Africa, which is mainly regulated by the ITCZ displacement, and during the austral summer of Southern Africa, are also fairly reproduced by the HadGEM2‐ES model. The model projects for the end of the 21st century a rainy South Africa, a change of the flood/drought cycle in the Tropics and a warming over the whole continent, varying from 3 to 7 °C. HadGEM2‐ES performance for Nigeria shows good reproduction of precipitation seasonal cycles for some locations, outside the ITCZ. However, the comparison with in situ measurement in Ilorin and Lagos shows the model is not being able to reproduce the precipitation annual cycle. Future projections for Nigeria exhibit warming everywhere and an enhancement of precipitation, especially in the northern part of the country.

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) plays important roles in the radiation budget and ozone chemistry and is a valuable tracer for understanding stratospheric transport. Meteorological reanalyses provide variables necessary for simulating this transport; however, even recent reanalyses are subject to substantial uncertainties, especially in the stratosphere. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the consistency among SWV distributions simulated using different input reanalysis products. In this study, we evaluate the representation of SWV and its variations on multiple timescales using simulations over the period 1980–2013. Our simulations are based on the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by horizontal winds and diabatic heating rates from three recent reanalyses: ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA-2. We present an intercomparison among these model results and observationally based estimates using a multiple linear regression method to study the annual cycle (AC), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and longer-term variability in monthly zonal-mean H2O mixing ratios forced by variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the volcanic aerosol burden. We find reasonable consistency among simulations of the distribution and variability in SWV with respect to the AC and QBO. However, the amplitudes of both signals are systematically weaker in the lower and middle stratosphere when CLaMS is driven by MERRA-2 than when it is driven by ERA-Interim or JRA-55. This difference is primarily attributable to relatively slow tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere in simulations based on MERRA-2. Two possible contributors to the slow tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere are suggested to be the large long-wave cloud radiative effect and the unique assimilation process in MERRA-2. The impacts of ENSO and volcanic aerosol on H2O entry variability are qualitatively consistent among the three simulations despite differences of 50 %–100 % in the magnitudes. Trends show larger discrepancies among the three simulations. CLaMS driven by ERA-Interim produces a neutral to slightly positive trend in H2O entry values over 1980–2013 (+0.01 ppmv decade−1), while both CLaMS driven by JRA-55 and CLaMS driven by MERRA-2 produce negative trends but with significantly different magnitudes (−0.22 and −0.08 ppmv decade−1, respectively).

Abstract. The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) determines the transport and atmospheric lifetime of key radiatively active trace gases and further impacts surface climate through downward coupling. Here, we quantify the variability in the lower stratospheric BDC induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using satellite trace gas measurements and simulations with the Lagrangian chemistry transport model, CLaMS, driven by ERA-Interim and JRA-55 reanalyses. We show that despite discrepancies in the deseasonalized ozone (O3) mixing ratios between CLaMS simulations and satellite observations, the patterns of changes in the lower stratospheric O3 anomalies induced by ENSO agree remarkably well over the 2005–2016 period. Particularly during the most recent El Niño in 2015–2016, both satellite observations and CLaMS simulations show the largest negative tropical O3 anomaly in the record. Regression analysis of different metrics of the BDC strength, including mean age of air, vertical velocity, residual circulation, and age spectrum, shows clear evidence of structural changes in the BDC in the lower stratosphere induced by El Niño, consistent with observed O3 anomalies. These structural changes during El Niño include a weakening of the transition branch of the BDC between about 370 and 420 K (∼100–70 hPa) and equatorward of about 60∘ and a strengthening of the shallow branch at the same latitudes and between about 420 and 500 K (∼70–30 hPa). The slowdown of the transition branch is due to an upward shift in the dissipation height of the large-scale and gravity waves, while the strengthening of the shallow branch results mainly from enhanced gravity wave breaking in the tropics–subtropics combined with enhanced planetary wave breaking at high latitudes. The strengthening of the shallow branch induces negative tropical O3 anomalies due to enhanced tropical upwelling, while the weakening of the transition branch combined with enhanced downwelling due to the strengthening shallow branch leads to positive O3 anomalies in the extratropical upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS). Our results suggest that a shift in the ENSO basic state toward more frequent El Niño-like conditions in a warmer future climate will substantially alter UTLS trace gas distributions due to these changes in the vertical structure of the stratospheric circulation.