Customer demand for electrical energy continues to increase, so electrical energy infrastructure must be developed to fulfill it. In order to generate and distribute electrical energy cost-effectively, it is crucial to estimate electrical energy consumption reasonably in advance. In addition, it is necessary to ensure that customer demands can be met and that there is no shortage of electricity supply. This study aims to determine the estimated long-term electricity use with a historical Energy Sold (T1) database in kW accumulated over several periods from 2008 to 2017. The ARIMA method with the Seasonal-ARIMA (SARIMA) pattern is used in forecasting analysis. The ARIMA method was chosen because it is considered appropriate for forecasting linear and univariate time-series data. The results of this study indicate that the MAPE (%) error rate is relatively low, with a result of 7,966, but the R-Square reaches a value of -0.024 due to the lack of observational data.
A major factor in the power system operation is the desire to maintain system security. System security involves a design to keep the system operating in the event of interference or failure. Interferences in electrical power systems are divided into generator, transmission, and load. Failure or interference of the transmission network results in a contingency of the transmission lines that can cause voltage in the bus and overload in the transmission lines, so it is very necessary to overcome the problem with a contingency analysis simulation to find solutions to problems caused by the disconnection of the transmission line. One of the contingency analysis methods is the 1P1Q (performance contingency index) method where the 1P1Q method lists the worst contingency impact on the electric power system to help engineers to solve problems and determine their next steps when contingencies occur. In the study, the Newton raphson's methods were used to determine the power flow in electrical systems at normal conditions or contingency. Calculating the value of the contingency index in times of interference or failure using the 1P1Q method. The results show that the worst impact or highest-ranking performance index for the Madura 150 kV electric power system occurs in the infinity-base scenario where two lines are overloaded and exceed the maximum value limit of the transmission line power of the infinity-gilitimur channel of 157.5 MW with a maximum value limit transmission line of 92,359 MW and gilitimur-bangkalan of 149 MW with a maximum value limit of transmission line of 88,616 MW. So there is prevention with load shedding of 87,638 MVA with scenario 6 in table 4:24 of load shedding on the bus Sampang, Sumenep, Pamekasan because by shedding loads of 95,528 MVA the power flowing at infinity-gilitimur becomes 72.9 MW.
The availability of electrical energy is an important issue. Along with the growth of the human population, electrical energy also increases. This study addresses problems in the operation of the electric power system. One of the problems that occur is the power imbalance due to scale growth between demand and generation. Alternative countermeasures that can be done are to prepare for the possibility that will occur in the future or what we are familiar with forecasting. Forecasting using the multiple linear regression method with this research variable assumes the household sector, business, industry, and public sectors, and is considered by the influence of population, gross regional domestic product, and District Minimum Wage. In forecasting, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). MAPE evaluation results show a value of 0.142 % in the household sector, 0.085 % in the business sector, 1.983 % in the industrial sector, and 0.131 % in the total customer sector.
The challenges of the future of education are increasingly complex. The position of educators in the era of the industrial revolution 4.0 tends to be a facilitator who provides the latest information regarding the development of science. Merdeka Learning is an independent and versatile higher education learning model designed to create an unrestricted creative learning community. This development research resulted in teaching material in the form of learning modules and videos for the Operations and System Stability course. The process of developing modules/teaching materials uses the ADDIE development model, namely Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluating. The teaching materials developed are suitable for students to use based on the results of the formative test data and the Likert scale with 86%-100% being very good criteria. In the one-on-one trial, the percentage of expert eligibility was 94.5% for digital modules, and 92% for learning videos. In a small group trial taken from 7 TE 2017 and TE 2018 students, the percentage of eligibility results was 94% for digital modules, and 94.5% for learning videos. Meanwhile, in the field trials taken from 76 students of TE 2017 and TE 2018 the results of the feasibility percentage were 91% for digital modules and 90% for learning videos.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.