Aims: Afghanistan is overwhelmed with food insecurity, thus severe food shortages in which a large percentage of the population lacks reliable access to food supplies. Cereals such as wheat, rice, and maize play a vital role in the country's food security due to their importance in terms of consumption and production quantity. This paper estimates cereal self-sufficiency and then makes a food balance forecast of the three major food crops - wheat, rice, and maize - cultivated in Afghanistan over six-decades (1979 – 2030). Methodology: Descriptive statistics, ARIMA model, and coarse metric technique were employed to analyze the data from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), United States Department of Agriculture PSD Database (USDA), and United Nations World Population Division databases to determine cereal self-sufficiency and food balance forecast. Results Econometric analysis demonstrated that (1) Afghanistan is not yet self-sufficient in meeting grain consumption. (2) The production and consumption ratio declined from 0.9 to 0.55 from 1979 to 2030. (3) The gap of theoretical food imbalance will increase, and by the year 2030, cereal production will likely be sufficient for only 49.8 percentage of inhabitants, leaving a high shortage equivalent to the amount required by 24.4 million people. (4) Per capita cereal production will possibly decrease from 120.8 kg to 95.4 kg per person between 2018 and 2030. Conclusion: By evaluating the quantitative food balance and the growing population change, this study presents an analysis of the emerging threat to Afghanistan's food security. Therefore, we recommended that the Afghanistan government should increase the size of public agricultural expenditure, improve the level of agriculture infrastructure, increase the cultivation area of cereals, and continue to introduce policy to achieve higher yield.
The Egyptian cotton sector is considered one of the most important export strategic sectors in Egypt, where the Egyptian government takes many agricultural policies that lead to an increase in exports of that crop to foreign markets, as these policies that the government takes have a major impact on the producers of that crop, and this study examined the impact of Agricultural policies on the Egyptian cotton crop, using the policy analysis matrix to know the effect of government policies on the producers of that crop and also the impact of those policies on Egyptian exports of the cotton crop, and the results showed that when comparing the financial and economic performance of the elements of cotton crop production, the financial performance was less than the economic performance on all cost items except workers' wages [1], indicating that the Government is subsidizing cost items, thereby supporting cotton producers. Comparing the average variable costs of cotton during the study period financially and economically shows that the financial valuation exceeds the economic valuation, with the average variable costs of $418.36 at market prices [2] , amounting to $368.84 at world prices, The results also showed that the Nominal Protection Coefficient for the output of the Egyptian cotton in the period under study (2000-2017) was 0.74, indicating the lack of a fair production policy during that period, perhaps due to the fact that the value of the Nominal Protection Coefficient for the production of the Egyptian cotton crop was lower than the correct one. It also indicated that the value of the Nominal Protection Coefficient for production supplies was 0.92, which indicates a decrease in government support for that crop compared to the value of the effective protection factor of 0.72 during the period under study (2000-2017). This indicates that the factor of the cost of domestic resources for the Egyptian cotton crop is 0.47, and this indicates that the Egyptian cotton has a comparative advantage in foreign markets, the study recommended Maintaining the foreign markets of the Egyptian cotton crop, as it has a global comparative and competitive advantage, and provides the state with foreign exchange, which contributes significantly to the Egyptian national economy.
Agricultural production, like other economic activities, is affected by the success of agricultural economic policies pursued by government from leaving the farmer free to cultivate his land with the desired crops and to take his production and marketing decisions in light of the mechanisms of supply and demand and the movement of prices in the markets without any intervention by the government. Therefore, the government's intervention influences the farmers' desire to grow any of the crops through its agricultural policies by imposing taxes or subsidizing inputs. To achieve the research objectives, we applied the Policy analysis matrix, where is one of the essential modern methods used in policy analysis. Besides, it helps to examine the impacts of government intervention policies across different stages of the flow of goods. In addition, it helps to assess and measure such policies' efficiency in achieving the hoped-for objectives and examine their impacts on producers, consumers, and the macro-level economic conditions. The Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) can be calculated by calculating nominal and effective protection coefficients and then identifying the policy adopted by the government, whether it is a protectionist policy or a policy of direct or indirect taxes on the producers of those crops. Also, the calculation of the cost of domestic resources to determine the relative advantage. Where wheat, maize, rice, and potatoes are among the most crucial strategic food and industrial crops in Egypt.
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