Assessment of Cereal Self-sufficiency and Food Balance Projection in Afghanistan

Abstract

Aims: Afghanistan is overwhelmed with food insecurity, thus severe food shortages in which a large percentage of the population lacks reliable access to food supplies. Cereals such as wheat, rice, and maize play a vital role in the country's food security due to their importance in terms of consumption and production quantity. This paper estimates cereal self-sufficiency and then makes a food balance forecast of the three major food crops - wheat, rice, and maize - cultivated in Afghanistan over six-decades (1979 – 2030).
 Methodology: Descriptive statistics, ARIMA model, and coarse metric technique were employed to analyze the data from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), United States Department of Agriculture PSD Database (USDA), and United Nations World Population Division databases to determine cereal self-sufficiency and food balance forecast.
 Results Econometric analysis demonstrated that (1) Afghanistan is not yet self-sufficient in meeting grain consumption. (2) The production and consumption ratio declined from 0.9 to 0.55 from 1979 to 2030. (3) The gap of theoretical food imbalance will increase, and by the year 2030, cereal production will likely be sufficient for only 49.8 percentage of inhabitants, leaving a high shortage equivalent to the amount required by 24.4 million people. (4) Per capita cereal production will possibly decrease from 120.8 kg to 95.4 kg per person between 2018 and 2030.
 Conclusion: By evaluating the quantitative food balance and the growing population change, this study presents an analysis of the emerging threat to Afghanistan's food security. Therefore, we recommended that the Afghanistan government should increase the size of public agricultural expenditure, improve the level of agriculture infrastructure, increase the cultivation area of cereals, and continue to introduce policy to achieve higher yield.

Food Insecurity and Related Factors among Farming Families in Takhar Region, Afghanistan

“…Food insecurity stems directly from long-term and short-term factors such as conflict, COVID-19, poverty, low productivity of agriculture, climate change, soil erosion, lack of proper planning, lack of adequate infrastructure, macroeconomic imbalance, population growth, food supply, inequality, rising food prices, and unemployment, among others [13,14,19,20]. The outcomes of these factors influence the food stability and livelihoods of millions of people.…”

“…The majority of grain crops are used for self-consumption due to the inadequate production capacity. Afghanistan still imports large quantities of grain, which results in food price variability and variation in food stability [19]. Moreover, the food stability supplies are increasingly impacted by weather variability through changes in the production and price of food.…”

“…However, Afghanistan faces problems in reaching food security: their production remains low and hampered by several elements such as a lack of agricultural inputs, credit access, extension service, farmer organization, and market access [25][26][27]. Additionally, the appearance of new problems, such as conflict, increases household vulnerability to food insecurity through deep economic recessions, unemployment, increased inflation, and eroded finances for social security and health [17,19]. Conflict affects the food supply chain from production, harvesting, processing, marketing, and transportation in locations where farming is the main income source.…”

Rice Self-sufficiency in Bhutan: An Assessment

“…Self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) is defined as the percentage of food consumed that is produced domestically and is calculated as below. The similar concept was also employed to study cereal sufficiency and food security in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar [16], Afghanistan [24] and Africa [17]. :…”

Potato Waste Reduction Mechanisms: A case study in Abshar district of Panjshir Province, Afghanistan

“…Afghanistan's agricultural sector supports almost 75 per cent of the overall population's livelihoods and contributes around 28 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, Agriculture's growth is vital to drive the country's economy and maintain food supply at the national level (Samim et al, 2021).…”