BackgroundGrowing evidence shows that fixed, nonpersonalized daily step goals can discourage individuals, resulting in unchanged or even reduced physical activity.ObjectiveThe aim of this randomized controlled trial (RCT) was to evaluate the efficacy of an automated mobile phone–based personalized and adaptive goal-setting intervention using machine learning as compared with an active control with steady daily step goals of 10,000.MethodsIn this 10-week RCT, 64 participants were recruited via email announcements and were required to attend an initial in-person session. The participants were randomized into either the intervention or active control group with a one-to-one ratio after a run-in period for data collection. A study-developed mobile phone app (which delivers daily step goals using push notifications and allows real-time physical activity monitoring) was installed on each participant’s mobile phone, and participants were asked to keep their phone in a pocket throughout the entire day. Through the app, the intervention group received fully automated adaptively personalized daily step goals, and the control group received constant step goals of 10,000 steps per day. Daily step count was objectively measured by the study-developed mobile phone app.ResultsThe mean (SD) age of participants was 41.1 (11.3) years, and 83% (53/64) of participants were female. The baseline demographics between the 2 groups were similar (P>.05). Participants in the intervention group (n=34) had a decrease in mean (SD) daily step count of 390 (490) steps between run-in and 10 weeks, compared with a decrease of 1350 (420) steps among control participants (n=30; P=.03). The net difference in daily steps between the groups was 960 steps (95% CI 90-1830 steps). Both groups had a decrease in daily step count between run-in and 10 weeks because interventions were also provided during run-in and no natural baseline was collected.ConclusionsThe results showed the short-term efficacy of this intervention, which should be formally evaluated in a full-scale RCT with a longer follow-up period.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02886871; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02886871 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6wM1Be1Ng).
Background: Identifying individuals who are unlikely to adhere to a physical exercise regime has potential to improve physical activity interventions. The aim of this paper is to develop and test adherence prediction models using objectively measured physical activity data in the Mobile Phone-Based Physical Activity Education program (mPED) trial. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first to apply Machine Learning methods to predict exercise relapse using accelerometer-recorded physical activity data. Methods: We use logistic regression and support vector machine methods to design two versions of a Discontinuation Prediction Score (DiPS), which uses objectively measured past data (e.g., steps and goal achievement) to provide a numerical quantity indicating the likelihood of exercise relapse in the upcoming week. The respective prediction accuracy of these two versions of DiPS are compared, and then numerical simulation is performed to explore the potential of using DiPS to selectively allocate financial incentives to participants to encourage them to increase physical activity. Results: we had access to a physical activity trial data that were continuously collected every 60 sec every day for 9 months in 210 participants. By using the first 15 weeks of data as training and test on weeks 16-30, we show that both versions of DiPS have a test AUC of 0.9 with high sensitivity and specificity in predicting the probability of exercise adherence. Simulation results assuming different intervention regimes suggest the potential benefit of using DiPS as a score to allocate resources in physical activity intervention programs in reducing costs over other allocation schemes. Conclusions: DiPS is capable of making accurate and robust predictions for future weeks. The most predictive features are steps and physical activity intensity. Furthermore, the use of DiPS scores can be a promising approach to determine when or if to provide just-in-time messages and step goal adjustments to improve compliance. Further studies on the use of DiPS in the design of physical activity promotion programs are warranted.
BackgroundDetermining patterns of physical activity throughout the day could assist in developing more personalized interventions or physical activity guidelines in general and, in particular, for women who are less likely to be physically active than men.ObjectiveThe aims of this report are to identify clusters of women based on accelerometer-measured baseline raw metabolic equivalent of task (MET) values and a normalized version of the METs ≥3 data, and to compare sociodemographic and cardiometabolic risks among these identified clusters.MethodsA total of 215 women who were enrolled in the Mobile Phone Based Physical Activity Education (mPED) trial and wore an accelerometer for at least 8 hours per day for the 7 days prior to the randomization visit were analyzed. The k-means clustering method and the Lloyd algorithm were used on the data. We used the elbow method to choose the number of clusters, looking at the percentage of variance explained as a function of the number of clusters.ResultsThe results of the k-means cluster analyses of raw METs revealed three different clusters. The unengaged group (n=102) had the highest depressive symptoms score compared with the afternoon engaged (n=65) and morning engaged (n=48) groups (overall P<.001). Based on a normalized version of the METs ≥3 data, the moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) evening peak group (n=108) had a higher body mass index (P=.03), waist circumference (P=.02), and hip circumference (P=.03) than the MVPA noon peak group (n=61).ConclusionsCategorizing physically inactive individuals into more specific activity patterns could aid in creating timing, frequency, duration, and intensity of physical activity interventions for women. Further research is needed to confirm these cluster groups using a large national dataset.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01280812; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01280812 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6vVyLzwft)
Ongoing student feedback on course content and assignments can be valuable for MOOC instructors in the absence of face-to-face-interaction. To collect ongoing feedback and scalably identify valuable suggestions, we built the MOOC Collaborative Assessment and Feedback Engine (M-CAFE). This mobile platform allows MOOC students to numerically assess the course, their own performance, and provide textual suggestions about how the course could be improved on a weekly basis. M-CAFE allows students to visualize how they compare with their peers and read and evaluate what others have suggested, providing peer-to-peer collaborative filtering. We evaluate M-CAFE based on data from two EdX MOOCs.
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