Long COVID, or complications arising from COVID-19 weeks after infection, has become a central concern for public health experts. The United States National Institutes of Health founded the RECOVER initiative to better understand long COVID. We used electronic health records available through the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to characterize the association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and long COVID diagnosis. Among patients with a COVID-19 infection between August 1, 2021 and January 31, 2022, we defined two cohorts using distinct definitions of long COVID—a clinical diagnosis (n = 47,404) or a previously described computational phenotype (n = 198,514)—to compare unvaccinated individuals to those with a complete vaccine series prior to infection. Evidence of long COVID was monitored through June or July of 2022, depending on patients’ data availability. We found that vaccination was consistently associated with lower odds and rates of long COVID clinical diagnosis and high-confidence computationally derived diagnosis after adjusting for sex, demographics, and medical history.

Importance: Characterizing the effect of vaccination on long COVID allows for better healthcare recommendations. Objective: To determine if, and to what degree, vaccination prior to COVID-19 is associated with eventual long COVID onset, among those a documented COVID-19 infection. Design, Settings, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of adults with evidence of COVID-19 between August 1, 2021 and January 31, 2022 based on electronic health records from eleven healthcare institutions taking part in the NIH Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Initiative, a project of the National Covid Cohort Collaborative (N3C). Exposures: Pre-COVID-19 receipt of a complete vaccine series versus no pre-COVID-19 vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures: Two approaches to the identification of long COVID were used. In the clinical diagnosis cohort (n=47,752), ICD-10 diagnosis codes or evidence of a healthcare encounter at a long COVID clinic were used. In the model-based cohort (n=199,498), a computable phenotype was used. The association between pre-COVID vaccination and long COVID was estimated using IPTW-adjusted logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards. Results: In both cohorts, when adjusting for demographics and medical history, pre-COVID vaccination was associated with a reduced risk of long COVID (clinic-based cohort: HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.55-0.80; OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.59-0.82; model-based cohort: HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.56-0.69; OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.75). Conclusions and Relevance: Long COVID has become a central concern for public health experts. Prior studies have considered the effect of vaccination on the prevalence of future long COVID symptoms, but ours is the first to thoroughly characterize the association between vaccination and clinically diagnosed or computationally derived long COVID. Our results bolster the growing consensus that vaccines retain protective effects against long COVID even in breakthrough infections.

When simulating multiscale stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in high-dimensions, separation of timescales, stochastic noise and high-dimensionality can make simulations prohibitively expensive. The computational cost is dictated by microscale properties and interactions of many variables, while the behavior of interest often occurs at the macroscale level and at large time scales, often characterized by few important, but unknown, degrees of freedom. For many problems bridging the gap between the microscale and macroscale by direct simulation is computationally infeasible. In this work we propose a novel approach to automatically learn a reduced model with an associated fast macroscale simulator. Our unsupervised learning algorithm uses short parallelizable microscale simulations to learn provably accurate macroscale SDE models, which are continuous in space and time. The learning algorithm takes as input: the microscale simulator, a local distance function, and a homogenization spatial or temporal scale, which is the smallest time scale of interest in the reduced system. The learned macroscale model can then be used for fast computation and storage of long simulations. We prove guarantees that related the number of short paths requested from the microscale simulator to the accuracy of the learned macroscale simulator. We discuss various examples, both low-and high-dimensional, as well as results about the accuracy of the fast simulators we construct, and its dependency on the number of short paths requested from the microscale simulator.

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Computable phenotypes are algorithms that translate clinical features into code that can be run against electronic health record (EHR) data to define patient cohorts. However, computable phenotypes that only make use of structured EHR data do not capture the full richness of a patient’s medical record. While natural language processing (NLP) methods have shown success in extracting clinical features from text, the use of such tools has generally been limited to research groups with substantial NLP expertise. Our goal was to develop an open-source phenotyping software, Clinical Annotation Research Kit (CLARK), that would enable clinical and translational researchers to use machine learning–based NLP for computable phenotyping without requiring deep informatics expertise. CLARK enables nonexpert users to mine text using machine learning classifiers by specifying features for the software to match in clinical notes. Once the features are defined, the user-friendly CLARK interface allows the user to choose from a variety of standard machine learning algorithms (linear support vector machine, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, decision tree, and random forest), cross-validation methods, and the number of folds (cross-validation splits) to be used in evaluation of the classifier. Example phenotypes where CLARK has been applied include pediatric diabetes (sensitivity=0.91; specificity=0.98), symptomatic uterine fibroids (positive predictive value=0.81; negative predictive value=0.54), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (sensitivity=0.90; specificity=0.94), and primary ciliary dyskinesia (sensitivity=0.88; specificity=1.0). In each of these use cases, CLARK allowed investigators to incorporate variables into their phenotype algorithm that would not be available as structured data. Moreover, the fact that nonexpert users can get started with machine learning–based NLP with limited informatics involvement is a significant improvement over the status quo. We hope to disseminate CLARK to other organizations that may not have NLP or machine learning specialists available, enabling wider use of these methods.

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Machine learning (ML)-driven computable phenotypes are among the most challenging to share and reproduce. Despite this difficulty, the urgent public health considerations around Long COVID make it especially important to ensure the rigor and reproducibility of Long COVID phenotyping algorithms such that they can be made available to a broad audience of researchers. As part of the NIH Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Initiative, researchers with the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) devised and trained an ML-based phenotype to identify patients highly probable to have Long COVID. Supported by RECOVER, N3C and NIH’s All of Us study partnered to reproduce the output of N3C’s trained model in the All of Us data enclave, demonstrating model extensibility in multiple environments. This case study in ML-based phenotype reuse illustrates how open-source software best practices and cross-site collaboration can de-black-box phenotyping algorithms, prevent unnecessary rework, and promote open science in informatics.

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