This paper examines the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia over the period from the first quarter of 1997 and the last quarter of 2015. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run and short-run relationships among the series. The research hypothesis is accepted and the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia is established and confirmed. The research results reveal unidirectional Granger causality from financial development to international trade at the 10% significance level, and negative long-run and the positive short-run relationships between financial developments and international trade in Croatia.
The objective of this paper is to analyze the governments spending-economic growth nexus and examine the asymmetries in the adjustment process between the two in the Croatian and Slovenian economy. The baseline relationship model between the variables of interest is grounded on the assumption of Wagner's Law and Keynesian hypothesis. A possible nonlinear asymmetric effect of governments spending and GDP toward their long-run equilibrium is tested for each case. The test results indicate the presence of nonlienarity in the relationship between public spending and GDP in Croatia and Slovenia as well. Eventually, country specific threshold cointegrating relationship between the considered variables are estimated and tested. The results reveal well suited threshold vector error correction model with significantly different error correction adjustments in normal and stress regimes for each of the two sample country.
This paper examines the relationship between gross domestic product and exports of goods and services in Croatia between 1996 and 2012. The research results confirmed unidirectional Granger causality from the exports of goods and services to gross domestic product. Following the Engle-Granger approach to cointegration, long-term equilibrium as well as short-term correlation between the observed variables was identified. Exports of goods and services and gross domestic product (GDP) in Croatia move together. If the two observed variables move away from equilibrium, they will return to their long-term equilibrium state at a velocity of 24.46% in the subsequent period. In accordance with the results, we found evidence supporting the export-led growth hypothesis in Croatia. As the outcomes indicated, to recover the economy, Croatia should put more emphasis on the development of exporting sectors.
This paper employs a quantile regression approach to explore the determinants
and properties of international foreign exchange reserves in Serbia and
North Macedonia, at various foreign exchange levels. The observed period
covers quarterly data for 2005q1-2019q1. The results reveal
quantile-dependent determinants of foreign exchange reserves and enable
comparison between the two countries, showing co-movements between monetary
policy and economic fluctuations. Following the estimates obtained in this
research, the paper compares the role of foreign exchange reserves in Serbia
and North Macedonia.
This research examined the sustainability of merchandise trade flows between Croatia and other European Union (EU) member states. Merchandise exports and imports were disaggregated into bilateral merchandise trade flows between Croatia and nineteen EU trading partners for the period 1999-2014. Following Granger-causality and cointegration tests for panel data, we specified the model to be estimated. Using a pooled mean group (PMG) estimator for dynamic heterogeneous panel data, the relationship between Croatian merchandise export and import was assessed empirically. Research results revealed unsustainable Croatian merchandise exports and imports vis-à-vis nineteen EU partners.
This paper aims to examine some of the macroeconomic drivers of nonperforming loans (NPL) in Croatia. Unemployment rate, industrial production index, construction works volume and the number of tourist arrivals were evaluated as the drivers on a quarterly data sample from 2008q4 to 2020q4. Following quantile regression approach, unemployment rates and construction works volume appeared as significant drivers of NPL in Croatia. Furthermore, empirical findings from this paper suggest asymmetric effects on NPL from its drivers. While decrease in construction works volume and increase in unemployment rates were found to correspond with increase in NPL, an increase in construction works volume and decrease in unemployment rates were not correlated with decrease in NPL. Consequently, the paper brings implications for credit institutions in Croatia within the context of COVID-19 pandemic crises.
This paper aims to examine drivers of Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) in Croatia. The intention of this study is to examine and analyse the effect of Return on Equity (ROE), Non-performing Loans (NPL), and Gross domestic product (GDP) on Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) in the Croatian banking sector. The population of this study is Croatian banking sector from q3 2016 to q3 2021. Empirical results suggested real GDP growth rates and NPL levels as LCR drivers in Croatia while effects from ROE were not empirically supported. The results of this study indicate NPLs and GDP simultaneously affect LCR. Consequently, the study has implications for banks in Croatia.
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