Summary. -An increase in outward orientation in general, and in export-oriented manufacturing in particular is widely indicated as a suitable developmental path for SSA. The logic for this is drawn both from the demonstration effect of China and the earlier generation of Asian NICs, and from theory. However, the entry of China (and to a lesser extent India) into the global economy as a significant exporter of manufactures poses severe problems for export-oriented growth in SSA. This can be seen from SSA's recent experience in the clothing and textile sectors, often considered to be the first step in export-oriented manufacturing growth. Without sustained trade preferences over Asian producers, SSA's clothing and textile industry will be largely excluded from global markets and face significant threats in its domestic market. This has generalizable implications for other sectors, and for other sets of low income producers.
This paper assesses the implications for upgrading of integration into two distinct clothing value chains in Lesotho and Swaziland − the value chain characterised by Taiwanese investment and feeding into the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the value chain characterised by South African investment and feeding into the South African market. These value chains differ with regard to ownership patterns, end markets, governance structures, retailers' demands, and investors' motivations. These different characteristics have crucial impacts on upgrading possibilities, including functional, process and 'local' upgrading. Thus, from the perspective of upgrading and sustainability, ownership patterns, local embeddedness and market diversification matter. The emergence of South Africa as an alternative end market and the different value chain dynamics operating in the South African retailer-governed value chain opens up new opportunities from those of the AGOA/Taiwanese-dominated value chain.
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