IMPORTANCEExisting recommendations for the diagnostic testing of hematuria range from uniform evaluation of varying intensity to patient-level risk stratification. Concerns have been raised about not only the costs and advantages of computed tomography (CT) scans but also the potential harms of CT radiation exposure.OBJECTIVE To compare the advantages, harms, and costs associated with 5 guidelines for hematuria evaluation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSA microsimulation model was developed to assess each of the following guidelines (listed in order of increasing intensity) for initial evaluation of hematuria: Dutch, Canadian Urological Association (CUA), Kaiser Permanente (KP), Hematuria Risk Index (HRI), and American Urological Association (AUA). Participants comprised a hypothetical cohort of patients (n = 100 000) with hematuria aged 35 years or older. This study was conducted from August 2017 through November 2018.EXPOSURES Under the Dutch and CUA guidelines, patients received cystoscopy and ultrasonography if they were 50 years or older (Dutch) or 40 years or older (CUA). Under the KP and HRI guidelines, patients received different combinations of cystoscopy, ultrasonography, and CT urography or no evaluation on the basis of risk factors. Under the AUA guidelines, all patients 35 years or older received cystoscopy and CT urography. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESUrinary tract cancer detection rates, radiation-induced secondary cancers (from CT radiation exposure), procedural complications, false-positive rates per 100 000 patients, and incremental cost per additional urinary tract cancer detected. RESULTSThe simulated cohort included 100 000 patients with hematuria, aged 35 years or older. A total of 3514 patients had urinary tract cancers (estimated prevalence, 3.5%; 95% CI, 3.0%-4.0%). The AUA guidelines missed detection for the fewest number of cancers (82 [2.3%]) compared with the detection rate of the HRI (116 [3.3%]) and KP (130 [3.7%]) guidelines. However, the simulation model projected 108 (95% CI, 34-201) radiation-induced cancers under the KP guidelines, 136 (95% CI, 62-229) under the HRI guidelines, and 575 (95% CI, 184-1069) under the AUA guidelines per 100 000 patients. The CUA and Dutch guidelines missed detection for a larger number of cancers (172 [4.9%] and 251 [7.1%]) but had 0 radiation-induced secondary cancers. The AUA guidelines cost approximately double the other 4 guidelines ($939/person vs $443/person for Dutch guidelines), with an incremental cost of $1 034 374 per urinary tract cancer detected compared with that of the HRI guidelines. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEIn this simulation study, uniform CT imaging for patients with hematuria was associated with increased costs and harms of secondary cancers, procedural complications, and false positives, with only a marginal increase in cancer detection. Risk stratification may optimize the balance of advantages, harms, and costs of CT.
Background: Progression trajectories of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are currently not well understood. Objective: To classify patients with incident MCI into different latent classes of progression and identify predictors of progression class. Methods: Participants with incident MCI were identified from the US National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set (09/2005-02/2019). Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR ®) Dementia Staging Instrument-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB), Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ), and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score longitudinal trajectories from MCI diagnosis were fitted using growth mixture models. Predictors of progression class were identified using multivariate multinomial logistic regression models; odds ratios (ORs) and 95%confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. Results: In total, 21%, 22%, and 57%of participants (N = 830) experienced fast, slow, and no progression on CDR-SB, respectively; for FAQ, these figures were 14%, 23%, and 64%, respectively. CDR-SB and FAQ class membership was concordant for most participants (77%). Older age (≥86 versus≤70 years, OR [95%CI] = 5.26 [1.78–15.54]), one copy of APOE ɛ4 (1.94 [1.08–3.47]), higher baseline CDR-SB (2.46 [1.56–3.88]), lower baseline MMSE (0.85 [0.75–0.97]), and higher baseline FAQ (1.13 [1.02–1.26]) scores were significant predictors of fast progression versus no progression based on CDR-SB (all p < 0.05). Predictors of FAQ class membership were largely similar. Conclusion: Approximately a third of participants experienced progression based on CDR-SB or FAQ during the 4-year follow-up period. CDR-SB and FAQ class assignment were concordant for the vast majority of participants. Identified predictors may help the selection of patients at higher risk of progression in future trials.
Introduction: As the identification of Lewy body dementia (LBD) is often confirmed postmortem, there is a paucity of evidence on the progression of disease antemortem. This study aimed to comprehensively assess the course of LBD over time across cognitive, functional, and neuropsychiatric outcomes using real-world data. Methods: Adults with at least one visit to an Alzheimer's Disease Center with a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment/dementia (index date), indication of LBD, and at least one follow-up visit were identified in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center database (September 2005-June 2020). Participant characteristics, medication use, comorbidities, and changes in outcomes were assessed over a 5-year follow-up period and stratified by disease severity based on the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDRÒ) Dementia Staging Instrument-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) score at index. Results: A total of 2052 participants with LBD (mean age at index 73.4 years) were included (mild, 219; moderate, 988; severe, 845). Mean annualized increase over 5 years was 0.9 points for CDR-Global Score, 5.6 points for CDR-SB, 10.4 points for the Functional Activities Questionnaire, and 2.0 points for the Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Questionnaire. Disease progression was greater among participants with moderate and severe LBD at index compared with those with mild LBD. Conclusion: Participants with LBD experienced decline across all outcomes over time, and impairment increased with disease severity. Findings highlight the substantial clinical burden associated with LBD and the importance of earlier diagnosis and effective treatment. Further research is needed to understand the predictors of cognitive and functional decline in LBD which may help inform clinical trials.
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