Introduction Substandard and falsified medications pose significant risks to global health. Nearly one in five antimalarials circulating in low-and middle-income countries are substandard or falsified. We assessed the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified antimalarials on children under five in Nigeria, where malaria is endemic and poor-quality medications are commonplace. Methods We developed a dynamic agent-based SAFARI (Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact) model to capture the impact of antimalarial use in Nigeria. The model simulated children with background characteristics, malaria infections, patient care-seeking, disease progression, treatment outcomes, and incurred costs. Using scenario analyses, we simulated the impact of substandard and falsified medicines, antimalarial resistance, as well as possible interventions to improve the quality of treatment, reduce stock-outs, and educate caregivers about antimalarial quality.

Background The early diagnosis and treatment of depression are cancer care priorities. These priorities are critical for prostate cancer survivors because men rarely seek mental health care. However, little is known about the epidemiology of depression in this patient population. The goal of this study was to describe the prevalence and predictors of probable depression in prostate cancer survivors. Methods The data were from a population‐based cohort of North Carolinian prostate cancer survivors who were enrolled from 2004 to 2007 in the North Carolina–Louisiana Prostate Cancer Project (n = 1031) and were prospectively followed annually from 2008 to 2011 in the Health Care Access and Prostate Cancer Treatment in North Carolina study (n = 805). Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate an indicator of probable depression (Short Form 12 mental composite score ≤48.9; measured at enrollment and during the annual follow‐up) as a function of individual‐level characteristics within the longitudinal data set. Results The prevalence of probable depression fell from 38% in the year of the cancer diagnosis to 20% 6 to 7 years later. Risk factors for probable depression throughout the study were African American race, unemployment, low annual income, younger age, recency of cancer diagnosis, past depression, comorbidities, treatment decisional regret, and nonadherence to exercise recommendations. Conclusions Depression is a major challenge for prostate cancer survivors, particularly in the first 5 years after the cancer diagnosis. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate an association between treatment decisional regret and probable depression.

IMPORTANCEExisting recommendations for the diagnostic testing of hematuria range from uniform evaluation of varying intensity to patient-level risk stratification. Concerns have been raised about not only the costs and advantages of computed tomography (CT) scans but also the potential harms of CT radiation exposure.OBJECTIVE To compare the advantages, harms, and costs associated with 5 guidelines for hematuria evaluation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSA microsimulation model was developed to assess each of the following guidelines (listed in order of increasing intensity) for initial evaluation of hematuria: Dutch, Canadian Urological Association (CUA), Kaiser Permanente (KP), Hematuria Risk Index (HRI), and American Urological Association (AUA). Participants comprised a hypothetical cohort of patients (n = 100 000) with hematuria aged 35 years or older. This study was conducted from August 2017 through November 2018.EXPOSURES Under the Dutch and CUA guidelines, patients received cystoscopy and ultrasonography if they were 50 years or older (Dutch) or 40 years or older (CUA). Under the KP and HRI guidelines, patients received different combinations of cystoscopy, ultrasonography, and CT urography or no evaluation on the basis of risk factors. Under the AUA guidelines, all patients 35 years or older received cystoscopy and CT urography. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESUrinary tract cancer detection rates, radiation-induced secondary cancers (from CT radiation exposure), procedural complications, false-positive rates per 100 000 patients, and incremental cost per additional urinary tract cancer detected. RESULTSThe simulated cohort included 100 000 patients with hematuria, aged 35 years or older. A total of 3514 patients had urinary tract cancers (estimated prevalence, 3.5%; 95% CI, 3.0%-4.0%). The AUA guidelines missed detection for the fewest number of cancers (82 [2.3%]) compared with the detection rate of the HRI (116 [3.3%]) and KP (130 [3.7%]) guidelines. However, the simulation model projected 108 (95% CI, 34-201) radiation-induced cancers under the KP guidelines, 136 (95% CI, 62-229) under the HRI guidelines, and 575 (95% CI, 184-1069) under the AUA guidelines per 100 000 patients. The CUA and Dutch guidelines missed detection for a larger number of cancers (172 [4.9%] and 251 [7.1%]) but had 0 radiation-induced secondary cancers. The AUA guidelines cost approximately double the other 4 guidelines ($939/person vs $443/person for Dutch guidelines), with an incremental cost of $1 034 374 per urinary tract cancer detected compared with that of the HRI guidelines. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEIn this simulation study, uniform CT imaging for patients with hematuria was associated with increased costs and harms of secondary cancers, procedural complications, and false positives, with only a marginal increase in cancer detection. Risk stratification may optimize the balance of advantages, harms, and costs of CT.

BackgroundAs part of efforts to reduce maternal deaths in Nigeria, pregnant women are being encouraged to give birth in healthcare facilities. However, little is known about whether or not available healthcare facilities can cope with an increasing demand for obstetric care. We thus carried out this survey as a rapid and tactical assessment of facility quality. We visited 121 healthcare facilities, and used the opportunity to interview over 700 women seeking care at these facilities.FindingsMost of the primary healthcare facilities we visited were unable to provide all basic Emergency Obstetric Care (bEmOC) services. In general, they lack clinical staff needed to dispense maternal and neonatal care services, ambulances and uninterrupted electricity supply whenever there were obstetric emergencies. Secondary healthcare facilities fared better, but, like their primary counterparts, lack neonatal care infrastructure. Among patients, most lived within 30 minutes of the visited facilities and still reported some difficulty getting there. Of those who had had two or more childbirths, the conditional probability of a delivery occurring in a healthcare facility was 0.91 if the previous delivery occurred in a healthcare facility, and 0.24 if it occurred at home. The crude risk of an adverse neonatal outcome did not significantly vary by delivery site or birth attendant, and the occurrence of such an outcome during an in-facility delivery may influence the mother to have her next delivery outside. Such an outcome during a home delivery may not prompt a subsequent in-facility delivery.ConclusionsIn conclusion, reducing maternal deaths in Nigeria will require attention to both increasing the number of facilities with high-quality EmOC capability and also assuring Nigerian women have access to these facilities regardless of where they live.

BackgroundWomen in Nigeria face some of the highest maternal mortality risks in the world. We explore the benefits and cost-effectiveness of individual and integrated packages of interventions to prevent pregnancy-related deaths.MethodsWe adapt a previously validated maternal mortality model to Nigeria. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to Southwest and Northeast zones using survey-based data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions, and could include improved logistics.ResultsIncreasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality, was cost saving in the Southwest zone and cost-effective elsewhere, and prevented nearly 1 in 5 abortion-related deaths. However, with a singular focus on family planning and safe abortion, mortality reduction would plateau below MDG 5. Strategies that could prevent 4 out of 5 maternal deaths included an integrated and stepwise approach that includes increased skilled deliveries, facility births, access to antenatal/postpartum care, improved recognition of referral need, transport, and availability quality of EmOC in addition to family planning and safe abortion. The economic benefits of these strategies ranged from being cost-saving to having incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $500 per YLS, well below Nigeria’s per capita GDP.ConclusionsEarly intensive efforts to improve family planning and control of fertility choices, accompanied by a stepwise effort to scale-up capacity for integrated maternal health services over several years, will save lives and provide equal or greater value than many public health interventions we consider among the most cost-effective (e.g., childhood immunization).

Background & Aims Topical corticosteroids or dietary elimination are recommended as first-line therapies for eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), but data to directly compare these therapies are scant. We performed a cost utility comparison of topical corticosteroids and the 6 food elimination diet (SFED) in treatment of EoE, from the payer perspective. Methods We used a modified Markov model based on current clinical guidelines, in which transition between states depended on histologic response simulated at the individual cohort-member level. Simulation parameters were defined by systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the base case estimates and bounds of uncertainty for sensitivity analysis. Meta-regression models included adjustment for differences in study and cohort characteristics. Results In the base case scenario, topical fluticasone was about as effective as SFED but more expensive at a 5-year time horizon ($9261.58 vs $5719.72 per person). SFED was more effective and less expensive than topical fluticasone and topical budesonide in the base case scenario. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed little uncertainty in relative treatment effectiveness. There was somewhat greater uncertainty in the relative cost of treatments—most simulations found SFED to be less expensive. Conclusion In a cost utility analysis comparing topical corticosteroids and SFED for first-line treatment of EoE, the therapies were similar in effectiveness. SFED was on average less expensive, and more cost effective in most simulations, than topical budesonide and topical fluticasone, from a payer perspective and not accounting for patient-level costs or quality of life.

In the short-term, NACT is a cost-effective alternative compared to PCS in women with AEOC. These results may translate to longer term cost-effectiveness; however, data from randomized control trials continues to mature.

Background There are uncertainties about prostate cancer‐related anxiety's (PCRA) associations with health‐related quality of life (HRQOL) and major depression, and these could affect the quality of mental healthcare provided to prostate cancer patients. Addressing these uncertainties will provide more insight into PCRA and inform further research on the value of PCRA prevention. The goals of this study were to measure associations between PCRA and HRQOL at domain and subdomain levels, and to evaluate the association between PCRA and probable (ie, predicted major) depression. Method We analyzed secondary cross‐sectional data from the North Carolina Prostate Cancer Comparative Effectiveness & Survivorship Study (NC ProCESS—a population‐based cohort of prostate cancer patients enrolled shortly after diagnosis [between January 2011 and June 2013] and followed prospectively). Patient‐reported measures of PCRA and HRQOL from 1,016 enrollees who participated in NC ProCESS’s 1‐year follow‐up survey were assessed. Outcomes of interests were a) linear correlations between contemporaneous memorial anxiety scale for prostate cancer (MAX‐PC) and Short Form 12 (SF‐12) scores, and b) measures of association between indicators of clinically significant PCRA (ie, MAX‐PC > 27) and probable depression during survey contact (ie, SF‐12 mental component score ≤43). Results PCRA measures had notable associations with SF‐12’s mental health subscale (assesses low mood/nervousness [rho = −0.42]) and emotional role functioning subscale (assesses subjective productivity loss [rho = −0.46]). Additionally, the risk of probable depression was significantly higher in participants with clinically significant PCRA compared with those without it (weighed risk ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval 3.6‐7.8; P < .001). Conclusion Prostate cancer patients with clinically significant PCRA should be assessed for major depression and productivity loss.