En este artículo se evalúa la precisión de los pronósticos generados por tres tipos de modelos para la inflación en México durante el período 1983-2001. Estos modelos son el margen sobre costo marginal (markup), la curva de Phillips clásica aumentada con tipo de cambio y el modelo de la brecha de dinero. Los modelos se comparan entre sí y contra el estándar mínimo del mejor modelo puro de series de tiempo disponible. Los resultados indican que el modelo del margen sobre costo marginal supera ampliamente a los demás mientras que el poder explicativo de la curva de Phillips clásica solamente supera al del modelo puro de series de tiempo si se incluye al tipo de cambio. El modelo de la brecha de dinero no produce buenos resultados, indicando que el paradigma de "dinero pasivo" es aplicable a México. El artículo concluye con una discusión del futuro de estos modelos en un ambiente de inflación baja y estable.
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.The design of the optimal sovereign insurance contract is analyzed when: the sovereign chooses the contract; effort is not contractible; shocks are of uncertain magnitude; the sovereign can save; and the sovereign can default. Under these conditions: i) an ex ante premium leads to higher coverage; ii) the premium increases with the sovereign's incentive to take risks; iii) a deductible is chosen to limit moral hazard; iv) the deductible-to-support ratio is decreasing with the size of the realized shock; and v) the change in the choice of savings when insurance is available is ambiguous, as there is a trade-off between inducing higher effort and increasing the likelihood of default. JEL Classification Numbers: F02, F33, F34, F42
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