Patients with cirrhosis and ascites comprise a small population who account for substantial use of hospital services. Markers of disease severity may identify patients at increased risk of early readmission. Alternative models of care should be considered to reduce unplanned hospital admissions, healthcare costs and pressure on emergency services.

Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast China can grow over the medium term is an important one. Using a Cobb–Douglas production function, we decompose the growth of trend GDP into those of the capital stock, labour, human capital and total factor productivity (TFP) and then forecast trend output growth out to 2030 using a bottom‐up approach based on forecasts that we build for each one of these factors. Our paper distinguishes itself from existing work in that we construct a forecast of Chinese TFP growth based on the aggregation of forecasts of its key determinants. In addition, our analysis is based on a carefully constructed estimate of the Chinese productive capital stock and a measure of human capital (based on Chinese wage survey data) that better reflects the returns to education in China. Our results suggest that Chinese GDP growth will slow from around 7% currently to approximately 5% by 2030, consistent with a gradual rebalancing of the Chinese economy characterized by a decline in the investment rate. Moreover, our findings underscore the growing importance of TFP growth as a driver of Chinese growth.

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The 1990s will be remembered in economic history as a decade of currency crises. In September 1992 the exchange-rate mechanism of the European Monetary System came under attack. This was followed by the Mexican currency crisis of December 1994 and, more recently, the Asian and Russian crises. 1 Concern about the possibility of these crises spreading to other countries and the implications this might have for the conduct of monetary policy rekindled interest amongst economists and policy-makers in the determinants of currency crises. There is no consensus in the theoretical literature regarding the causes of such crises. Traditional models suggest that currency crises are caused by deteriorating economic fundamentals, while more recent models link crises to self-fulfilling prophecies and contagion effects. Since different factors are identified as the causes, it is necessary to examine their determinants empirically.This article examines the determinants of currency crises in developing countries. It asks two basic questions: (a) are currency crises linked to economic fundamentals? and (b) is there any evidence of a contagion effect after controlling for the potential effects of economic fundamentals? Using a panel of annual data for 19 developing countries spanning the period 1977-97, it demonstrates that, among the macroeconomic fundamentals considered as predictors of currency crises, the current account deficit is the only variable that can be consistently linked to currency crises. Economic fundamentals such as the growth rate of domestic credit, lending booms, inflation, foreign debt, output growth and high fiscal deficits are generally not significant. In cases where a