Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably 1. Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services 2-6. As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean-wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture-to estimate 'sustainable supply curves' that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21-44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36-74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12-25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand.

We conducted a literature review on the biology, ecology, fishery, and protection of totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), an endemic, threatened fish of the Gulf of Calfornia, Mexico. Reinterpretation and integration of published and unpublished information enabled us to confirm and estimate specific biological parameters of the totooba, make hypothetical constructs of its life history, and to propose ideas for its preservation. In specific, we found (1) that the mean age of first reproduction of male and female totoaba are 6 and 7 years, respectively; (2) that the intrinsic rate of natural mortality was estimated as 0.268 per year and (3) that in the mid 1980s an estimated 120,300 juveniles died each year in the shrimp fishery by‐catch and 6200 adults (26 kg average weight) died due to poaching. The parameters of an individual growth model for juveniles and adults were also estimated. Decreased spring water input from the Colorado River into the Gulf of California may have caused a contraction of the spawning season and a reduction of the carrying capacity of juvenile totoaba. An increase in annual survival during recent years indicates recovery of the stock that might be related to protection of adults. We argue that habitat restoration, which includes the elimination of growth and recruitment over‐fishing, is critical to increasing numbers of totoaba, and thereby lifting the fishing ban, and to the delisting of totoaba.

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