The future of food from the sea

Abstract

Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably 1. Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services 2-6. As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean-wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture-to estimate 'sustainable supply curves' that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21-44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36-74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12-25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand.

Farming fish in the sea will not nourish the world

“…This is evident from papers and policy documents with titles such as, Global opportunities for mariculture development to promote human nutrition 24 , How can mariculture better help feed humanity? 27 , Food from the Oceans 7 , and The future of food from the sea 2,3 . Collectively, the literature asserts that increased production of farmed marine food has the potential to enhance seafood consumption by humans 3 .…”

Transdisciplinary Research Priorities for Human and Planetary Health in the Context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

“…These pollutants compound the negative impact of climate change and have direct health consequences, such as disease transmission and ingestion of toxic substances [102]. Future projections are mixed, with some suggesting seafood insecurity could increase, which could contribute to conflicts, especially in the Asia region [60,103]; however, Reference [104] suggests that improved global management of wild fisheries, along with global policy reform and technology improvements, could increase ocean-based yields by 36-74% by 2050.…”

Five priorities for a sustainable ocean economy

“…Manage seafood production sustainably. Currently, fish, crustaceans and molluscs provide only 17% of edible meat 5 . More protein and essential nutrients will be needed to feed the world's rising population, expected to reach almost 10 billion by 2050.…”

“…Land-based agriculture is hard to expand, because doing so would exacerbate climate change, biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Sustainable fisheries and mariculture together, however, might deliver 36-74% higher yields by 2050, meeting 12-25% of the extra meat needed 5 .…”

“…Currently, most mariculture (around 75%) requires feed, typically fishmeal and fish oil. Such production of fed bony fish could be increased somewhat 5 . But there are ecological limits to how much fish and feed could be caught without depleting stocks.…”