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In this study, we evaluate phylogeographic patterns and predictions of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for Eugenia uniflora (Myrtaceae), a widely distributed taxon in the Atlantic forest domain, to understand the effect of past climatic oscillations on the demographic history of this species. An analysis of phylogeographic population structure and demography was conducted on E. uniflora from 46 localities in natural environments across the distribution range of the species based on three plastid markers. ENM was also performed to predict suitable environments and areas of dramatic decrease in future suitability for the species under distinct representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Eugenia uniflora exhibited higher haplotype and nucleotide diversity in the southern part of its distribution than in the northern part. Two divergent lineages were revealed in the phylogenetic analysis of haplotypes, with an estimated divergence at c. 4.9 Mya. The populations in the northern and central regions of the range probably experienced population growth, whereas populations in the southern region are marked by historical demographic stability. ENM results indicate that the distribution of E. uniflora was fragmented in cool periods and was broader and more connected during warm periods during Pleistocene. The results suggest distinct evolutionary histories in southern to northern populations, indicating region-specific responses to changes.

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Phylogenetic niche conservatism can be investigated at multiple scales on an explicit geographical context. Haplotype-based comparative analyses of lineages occupying the same region, and thus subjected to similar environmental factors, allow decoupling shared evolutionary and ecological patterns, as well as multiple dimensions of adaptive diversification. Here we aimed to assess the role of environmental drivers on diversification of subtropical grassland, based on haplotypic diversity of two plant genera. We sampled two closely related and co-distributed grassland plant genera, Petunia and Calibrachoa, across their entire distribution area. Eigenvectors extracted from pairwise distances based on chloroplast DNA haplotypes were used to fit Phylogenetic Signal-Representation (PSR) curves to estimate evolutionary patterns in 19 bioclimatic variables and altitude. The PSR curves showed that altitude, precipitation, and temperature variables changed at different rates with haplotype differentiation. Altitude and temperature traits evolved under conditions closer to a neutral dynamics, whereas precipitation traits differentiated following more complex models. Our results indicated that the diversification in the two genera was more limited by precipitation conditions. Based on these novel findings, we suggest that future studies should test the possible impact of precipitation variables on the process of ecological differentiation in these genera.

The Tropical Niche Conservatism hypothesis is one of the most relevant theories to explain why tropical diversity is high, although the mechanisms underlying this hypothesis require further clarification. A possible research avenue to address the underlying mechanisms includes determining population-level processes associated with such a hypothesis, in particular by trying to identify how adaptation may occur in extreme niche conditions at the edges of species ranges. However, the determinants of molecular diversity at the edges of geographical distributions of tropical taxa are still poorly known. Here we assessed which environmental variables determine diversity in nuclear and plastid genetic markers for populations of four Passiflora species in the southern limit of their geographical distributions. Climatic factors can drive genetic diversity, and their importance varies according to the marker. The primary predictors are variables representing higher temperatures during cold periods of the year and higher precipitation during dry periods. We concluded that, although these species are present in colder areas at the edge of their range, Tropical Niche Conservatism acts as a restraining force on genetic diversity in southern populations of Passiflora.