Nowadays, geospatial techniques are a popular approach for estimating urban flash floods by considering spatiotemporal changes in urban development. In this study, we investigated the impact of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes on the hydrological response of the Erbil basin in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). In the studied area, the LULC changes were calculated for 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2019 using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and satellite images. The analysis of LULC changes showed that the change between 1984 and 2004 was slower than that between 2004 and 2019. The LULC analysis revealed a 444.4% growth in built-up areas, with a 60.4% decrease in agricultural land between 1984 and 2019. The influence of LULC on urban floods caused by different urbanization scenarios was ascertained using the HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-HMS models. Over 35 years, there was a 15% increase in the peak discharge of outflow, from 392.2 m3/s in 1984 to 450 m3/s in 2014, as well as the runoff volume for a precipitation probability distribution of 10%, which increased from 27.4 mm in 1984 to 30.9 mm in 2014. Overall, the probability of flash floods increased in the center of the city due to the large expansion of built-up areas.
Aim of the studyThe current paper aims to give a detailed evaluation and analysis of some extreme rainfall events that happened in the last decade in terms of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution, intensity rate, and exceedance probability. Moreover, it examines the effects of each analysed aspect on the resulting flash floods in the studied area.
Material and methodsIn their glossary of meteorology, American Meteorology Society (AMS) subdivided rainfall intensity types into four groups (light, moderate, heavy, and violent). Also, for estimating the exceedance probability, lognormal distribution was applied as a statistical model of the precipitation probability distribution function.
Results and conclusionsOut of six episodes, five of the analysed events were classified as heavy rainfall. However, the duration of those heavy rainfall events was not more than two hours. Four events of maximum daily rainfall (for a 39-year dataset) were rated at 1-10% of exceedance probability. To conclude, the current study can be an initial step in modelling hydrological events in the studied area, and in the process of transforming precipitation into the outflows of urban basins in the future.
One of the manifestations of climate changes is the occurrence of a greater number of precipitation events, characterized by greater rain intensity that affects the economic stability of cities. Gdańsk is an example of a city in which such events have occurred since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Due to the altitude differences in the area of Gdańsk city (between -2 m and 180 m a.s.l.), the occurrence of extreme atmospheric precipitation almost immediately causes hydrological effects in the water network consisting of several streams of montane character, which flow eastwards from the plateau of the Kashubian Lakeland. Meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Service (IMGW-PIB) are located in the coastal zone (Port Północny/Northern Port, Świbno) and in the highest part of the city (the Rębiechowo airport). Because this is insufficient, the city of Gdańsk has been expanding the local rain monitoring network since 2001, currently having reliable 10-year observation data sequences. The said network is operated by the Gdańsk Water municipal company.Climate changes resulting in different characteristics of rainfall episodes in Gdańsk naturally influence the determination of the probability of their occurrence. According to the rainfall model developed by Bogdanowicz and Stachy at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, at least 4 rainfall events lasting for over 8 hours in the last 17 years should be classified as a 100-year rain event. One of these extended the parameters of a 300-year rain event; whereas we asses the rain in the year 2016, when even 170 mm of rainfall was recorded on July 14, as at least a 500-year rain event. During this period, several-minute events were also recorded, which also exceeded the parameters of a 100-year rain event.The paper presents precipitation models for the region of Gdańsk. Based on the maximum annual daily rainfall from Rębiechowo meteorological station from the years 1974-2017, an analysis of changes in precipitation values corresponding to certain probabilities of occurrence was conducted. An assessment was also made of the projected decrease in the value of precipitation in relation to hydro-technical constructions, road-engineering structures, and rainwater drainage systems in view of changing legal regulations, as well as the latest trends related to the management of rainwater.
Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) relationships are widely used in water infrastructure design and construction. IDF curves represent the relationship between rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency, and are obtained by analyzing observed data. These relationships are critical for the safe design of flood protection structures, storm sewers, culverts, bridges, etc. In this study, the IDF curves and empirical IDF formulas for the city of Erbil were developed for the first time by employing the annual maximum rainfall data for a period of 39 years (1980–2018), which is the only available recorded data. Statistical techniques such as Gumbel and Log-Pearson Type III (LPT III) were utilized to determine the IDF curves and empirical equations from daily rainfall data for several standard durations and return periods. The correlation between the rainfall intensities obtained from IDF curves and the empirical formula presented a reliable match, with a coefficient of determination of (R2 = 1). The results were compared to previously developed IDF curves and empirical formulas in Iraqi cities to show their reliability. Moreover, the results can be an initial step for authorities to establish required guidelines in the studied area, and in the design process of the storm water infrastructure of urban basins in the future.
In the Vistula Lagoon, storm surges are induced by variable sea levels in the Gulf of Gdańsk and wind action. The rising of the water level in the southern part of the basin, exceeding 1.0 m above mean sea level, can be dangerous for the lowland area of Żuławy Elbląskie, causing the inundation of the polders adjacent to the lagoon. One of the potential possibilities to limit the flood risk is to decrease the water level in the lagoon during strong storm surges by opening an artificial canal to join the lagoon with the Gulf of Gdańsk. The decision to build a new strait in the Vistula Spit was made in 2017. In order to analyze the impact of the artificial connection between the sea and the lagoon during periods of high water stages in the southern part the lagoon, mathematical modelling of the hydrodynamics of the Vistula Lagoon is required. This paper presents the shallow water equations (SWEs) model adapted to simulate storm surges driven by the wind and sea tides, and the numerical results obtained for the present (without the new strait) and future (with the new strait) configuration of the Vistula Lagoon.
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