Nowadays, geospatial techniques are a popular approach for estimating urban flash floods by considering spatiotemporal changes in urban development. In this study, we investigated the impact of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes on the hydrological response of the Erbil basin in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). In the studied area, the LULC changes were calculated for 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2019 using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and satellite images. The analysis of LULC changes showed that the change between 1984 and 2004 was slower than that between 2004 and 2019. The LULC analysis revealed a 444.4% growth in built-up areas, with a 60.4% decrease in agricultural land between 1984 and 2019. The influence of LULC on urban floods caused by different urbanization scenarios was ascertained using the HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-HMS models. Over 35 years, there was a 15% increase in the peak discharge of outflow, from 392.2 m3/s in 1984 to 450 m3/s in 2014, as well as the runoff volume for a precipitation probability distribution of 10%, which increased from 27.4 mm in 1984 to 30.9 mm in 2014. Overall, the probability of flash floods increased in the center of the city due to the large expansion of built-up areas.

Aim of the studyThe current paper aims to give a detailed evaluation and analysis of some extreme rainfall events that happened in the last decade in terms of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution, intensity rate, and exceedance probability. Moreover, it examines the effects of each analysed aspect on the resulting flash floods in the studied area. Material and methodsIn their glossary of meteorology, American Meteorology Society (AMS) subdivided rainfall intensity types into four groups (light, moderate, heavy, and violent). Also, for estimating the exceedance probability, lognormal distribution was applied as a statistical model of the precipitation probability distribution function. Results and conclusionsOut of six episodes, five of the analysed events were classified as heavy rainfall. However, the duration of those heavy rainfall events was not more than two hours. Four events of maximum daily rainfall (for a 39-year dataset) were rated at 1-10% of exceedance probability. To conclude, the current study can be an initial step in modelling hydrological events in the studied area, and in the process of transforming precipitation into the outflows of urban basins in the future.

Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) relationships are widely used in water infrastructure design and construction. IDF curves represent the relationship between rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency, and are obtained by analyzing observed data. These relationships are critical for the safe design of flood protection structures, storm sewers, culverts, bridges, etc. In this study, the IDF curves and empirical IDF formulas for the city of Erbil were developed for the first time by employing the annual maximum rainfall data for a period of 39 years (1980–2018), which is the only available recorded data. Statistical techniques such as Gumbel and Log-Pearson Type III (LPT III) were utilized to determine the IDF curves and empirical equations from daily rainfall data for several standard durations and return periods. The correlation between the rainfall intensities obtained from IDF curves and the empirical formula presented a reliable match, with a coefficient of determination of (R2 = 1). The results were compared to previously developed IDF curves and empirical formulas in Iraqi cities to show their reliability. Moreover, the results can be an initial step for authorities to establish required guidelines in the studied area, and in the design process of the storm water infrastructure of urban basins in the future.

One of the most common types of natural disaster, floods can happen anywhere on Earth, except in the polar regions. The severity of the damage caused by flooding can be reduced by putting proper management and protocols into place. Using remote sensing and a geospatial methodology, this study attempts to identify flood-vulnerable areas of the central district of Duhok, Iraq. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique was used to give relative weights to 12 contributing parameters, including elevation, slope, distance from the river, rainfall, land use land cover, soil, lithology, topographic roughness index, topographic wetness index, aspect, the sediment transport index, and the stream power index in order to calculate the Flood Hazard Index (FHI). The relative importance of each criterion was revealed by a sensitivity analysis of the parameter values. This research developed a final flood susceptibility map and identified high-susceptible zones. This was classified anywhere from very low to very high classifications for its potential flood hazard. The generated map indicates that 44.72 km2 of the total land area of the study area in Duhok city has a very high susceptibility to flooding, and that these areas require significant attention from government authorities in order to reduce flood vulnerability.

This paper presents the impact of the choice of building representation techniques and hydrodynamic models on urban flood simulations using HEC-RAS 2-D for the Toce River physical model. To this end, eight numerical models based on previous laboratory experiments were prepared to simulate unsteady urban flooding on each side of building units. Two simplified building layouts (aligned and staggered) were examined, where models were prepared for two different building representation techniques: Building Block (BB) and Building Resistance (BR). Water depth variation computations using the BR and BB techniques were compared to the laboratory measurements and previous studies in the literature. A statistical analysis was performed using both the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient (PPMCC) in order to evaluate the performance of the models. A sensitivity analysis showed that the proper mesh resolution and model parameter values were obtained. As far as the BR technique is concerned, it is well-suited for representing building units in numerical simulations using high Manning coefficients. Furthermore, this study confirms the importance of the BR technique, which should help researchers in using low-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) along with open-source programs. Moreover, the study aims to produce a deeper comprehension of numerical modeling and urban flooding.