Before the COVID-19 pandemic there had already been an increase in individual shipment transportation including inner-city areas. During the pandemic and implementation of adopted preventive measures, it has increased by more than 100% in some cities. This presents an unsustainable development, particularly in terms of urban environment. The above-mentioned development has accelerated the research related to optimal allocation of logistics centres considering the last-mile distribution. Unfortunately, the theoretical mathematical model that finds an optimal urban logistics centre location based on the matrix of distance, number, and weight of shipments is not applicable in most cities. Therefore, the following research methodology was chosen in accordance with the approved territorial plan. The authors considered those locations in Bratislava—the capital of Slovak Republic—which are designated, or suitable for building up of an urban logistics centre. These localities were afterwards evaluated in a real-world case study employing methods of mathematical programming (linear programming), the nearest neighbour method, and the Clarke-Wright method. The presented methodology can be applied not only when deciding on the appropriate location of the city logistics centre, but also at optimizing the vehicle routing problem. Taking into account the urban logistics sustainability and the e-commerce growth, it was analysed whether the suggested location of urban logistics centre is feasible to provision examined facilities using electric vehicles. The range of considered electric vehicles of N2 category present in the market tends to be at the limits of distribution routes length for the given case study. Therefore, the article also deals with the fast-charging possibilities of vehicles during handling operations and the use of hybrid freight vehicles in city logistics.
The issue of prediction of financial state, or especially the threat of the financial distress of companies, is very topical not only for the management of the companies to take the appropriate actions but also for all the stakeholders to know the financial health of the company and its possible future development. Therefore, the main aim of the paper is ensemble model creation for financial distress prediction. This model is created using the real data on more than 550,000 companies from Central Europe, which were collected from the Amadeus database. The model was trained and validated using 27 selected financial variables from 2016 to predict the financial distress statement in 2017. Five variables were selected as significant predictors in the model: current ratio, return on equity, return on assets, debt ratio, and net working capital. Then, the proposed model performance was evaluated using the values of the variables and the state of the companies in 2017 to predict financial status in 2018. The results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model created by combining methods, namely RobustBoost, CART, and k-NN with optimised structure, achieves better prediction results than using one of the methods alone. Moreover, the ensemble model is a new technique in the Visegrad Group (V4) compared with other prediction models. The proposed model serves as a one-year-ahead prediction model and can be directly used in the practice of the companies as the universal tool for estimation of the threat of financial distress not only in Central Europe but also in other countries. The value-added of the prediction model is its interpretability and high-performance accuracy.
Prediction of electricity energy consumption plays a crucial role in the electric power industry. Accurate forecasting is essential for electricity supply policies. A characteristic feature of electrical energy is the need to ensure a constant balance between consumption and electricity production, whereas electricity cannot be stored in significant quantities, nor is it easy to transport. Electricity consumption generally has a stochastic behavior that makes it hard to predict. The main goal of this study is to propose the forecasting models to predict the maximum hourly electricity consumption per day that is more accurate than the official load prediction of the Slovak Distribution Company. Different models are proposed and compared. The first model group is based on the transverse set of Grey models and Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli models and the second approach is based on a multi-layer feed-forward back-propagation network. Moreover, a new potential hybrid model combining these different approaches is used to forecast the maximum hourly electricity consumption per day. Various performance metrics are adopted to evaluate the performance and effectiveness of models. All the proposed models achieved more accurate predictions than the official load prediction, while the hybrid model offered the best results according to performance metrics and supported the legitimacy of this research.
Predicting financial distress is one of the most well-known issues in corporate finance. Investors and other stakeholders often use prediction models as relevant tools for identifying weaknesses to eliminate potential threats to business partners. This paper aims to present an effective logistic regression model for a one-year-ahead prediction of financial distress with the minimum set of predictors as a part of risk management. The paper is motivated by various works dealing with the curse of dimensionality phenomenon and the observation that the increasing number of logit-model predictors does not improve the prediction—on the contrary. Monitoring the significance of improvement in the stepwise growth of the predictor set is used to identify the minimal set. Logistic regression with cross-validation is involved in the modelling process. The proposed model is compared with other logit-based models used regionally or globally on the same large dataset, which underlines the model validity and robustness. The proposed logit model contains only two significant predictors and achieves excellent performance metrics compared to other models. The added value of the article lies in a simple application for managers, investors, creditors, financial institutions, and others with a reliable classification of companies into healthy and unhealthy company groups.
This paper proposes a novel method for video quality evaluation based on machine learning technique. The current research deals with the correct interpretation of objective video quality evaluation (Quality of Service – QoS) in relation to subjective end-user perception (Quality of Experience – QoE), typically expressed by mean opinion score (MOS). Our method allows us to interconnect results obtained from video objective and subjective assessment methods in the form of a neural network (computing model inspired by biological neural networks). So far, no unified interpretation scale has been standardized for both approaches, therefore it is difficult to determine the level of end-user satisfaction obtained from the objective assessment. Thus, contribution of the proposed method lies in description of the way to create a hybrid metric that delivers fast and reliable subjective score of perceived video quality for internet television (IPTV) broadcasting companies.
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