Effective long-term wildlife conservation planning for a species must be guided by information about population vital rates at multiple scales. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations declined substantially during the twentieth century, largely as a result of habitat loss and fragmentation. In addition to the importance of conserving large tracts of suitable habitat, successful conservation of this species will require detailed information about factors affecting vital rates at both the population and range-wide scales. Research has shown that sage-grouse population growth rates are particularly sensitive to hen and chick survival rates. While considerable information on hen survival exists, there is limited information about chick survival at the population level, and currently there are no published reports of factors affecting chick survival across large spatial and temporal scales. We analyzed greater sage-grouse chick survival rates from 2 geographically distinct populations across 9 years. The effects of 3 groups of related landscape-scale covariates (climate, drought, and phenology of vegetation greenness) were evaluated. Models with phenological change in greenness (NDVI) performed poorly, possibly due to highly variable production of forbs and grasses being masked by sagebrush canopy. The top drought model resulted in substantial improvement in model fit relative to the base model and indicated that chick survival was negatively associated with winter drought. Our overall top model included effects of chick age, hen age, minimum temperature in May, and precipitation in July. Our results provide important insights into the possible effects of climate variability on sage-grouse chick survival.

Abstract. Species conservation efforts often use short-term studies that fail to identify the vital rates that contribute most to population growth. Although the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) is a candidate for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is sometimes referred to as an umbrella species in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome of western North America, the failure of proposed management strategies to focus on key vital rates that may contribute most to achieving population stability remains problematic for sustainable conservation. To address this dilemma, we performed both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses of a life cycle model based on a 12-yr study that encompassed nearly all sage-grouse vital rates. To validate our population models, we compared estimates of annual finite population growth rates (λ) from our female-based life cycle models to those attained from male-based lek counts. Post-fledging (i.e., after second year, second year, and juvenile) female survival parameters contributed most to past variation in λ during our study and had the greatest potential to change λ in the future, indicating these vital rates as important determinants of sage-grouse population dynamics. In addition, annual estimates of λ from female-based life cycle models and malebased lek data were similar, providing the most rigorous evidence to date that lek counts of males can serve as a valid index of sage-grouse population change. Our comparison of fixed and mixed statistical models for evaluating temporal variation in nest survival and initiation suggest that conservation planners use caution when evaluating short-term nesting studies and using associated fixed-effect results to develop conservation objectives. In addition, our findings indicated that greater attention should be paid to those factors affecting sage-grouse post-fledging females. Our approach demonstrates the need for more long-term studies of species vital rates across the life cycle. Such studies should address the decoupling of sampling variation from underlying process (co)variation in vital rates, identification of how such variation drives population dynamics, and how decision makers can use this information to re-direct conservation efforts to address the most limiting points in the life cycle for a given population.

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Effects of climatic variation and reproductive trade-offs vary by measure of reproductive effort in greater sage-grouse.Ecosphere 5(12):154. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00124.1Abstract. Research on long-lived iteroparous species has shown that reproductive success may increase with age, until the onset of senescence, and that prior reproductive success may influence current reproductive success. Such complex reproductive dynamics can complicate conservation strategies, especially for harvested species. Further complicating the matter is the fact that most studies of reproductive costs are only able to evaluate a single measure of reproductive effort. We systematically evaluated the effects of climatic variation and reproductive trade-offs on multiple reproductive vital rates for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse), a relatively long-lived galliforme of conservation concern throughout western North America. Based on over a decade of field observations, we hypothesized that reproduction is influenced by previous reproductive success. We monitored hen reproductive activity from 1998 to 2010, and used generalized linear mixed models to assess effects of climate and previous reproductive success on subsequent reproductive success. Reproductive trade-offs manifested as chronic effects on subsequent reproduction and were not apparent in all measures of subsequent reproduction. Neither nest initiation nor clutch size were found to be affected by climatic variables (either year t À 1 or t) or previous reproductive success. However, both nest and brood success were affected by climatic variation and previous reproductive success. Nest success was highest in years with high spring snowpack, and was negatively related to previous brood success. Brood success was positively influenced by moisture in April, negatively associated with previous nest success, and positively influenced by previous brood success. Both positive and negative effects of previous reproduction on current year reproduction were observed, possibly indicating high levels of individual heterogeneity in female reproductive output. Our results support previous research in indicating that climatic variability may have significant negative impacts on reproductive rates.

Greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse) adult hen and juvenile survival have been shown to have significant influence on population growth rates. However, assessing the sensitivity of population growth rates to variability in juvenile survival has proven difficult because of limited information concerning the potentially important demographic rate. Sage‐grouse survival rates are commonly assessed using necklace‐type radio transmitters. Recent technological advances have lead to increased interest in the deployment of dorsally mounted global positioning system (GPS) transmitters for studying sage‐grouse ecology. However, the use of dorsally mounted transmitters has not been thoroughly evaluated for sage‐grouse, leading to concern that birds fitted with these transmitters may experience differential mortality rates. We evaluated the effect of transmitter positioning (dorsal vs. necklace) on juvenile sage‐grouse survival using a controlled experimental design with necklace‐style and suture‐backpack very high frequency (VHF) transmitters. To evaluate the effects of temporal variation, sex, and transmitter type on juvenile sage‐grouse survival, we monitored 91 juveniles captured in south‐central Utah from 2008 to 2010. We instrumented 19 females with backpacks, 14 males with backpacks, 39 females with necklaces, and 19 males with necklaces. We used Program MARK to analyze juvenile survival data. Although effects were only marginally significant from a statistical perspective, sex (P = 0.103) and transmitter type (P = 0.09) were deemed to have biologically meaningful impacts on survival. Dorsally mounted transmitters appeared to negatively affected daily survival (βtransmitter type = −0.55, SE = 0.32). Temporal variation in juvenile sage‐grouse daily survival was best described by a quadratic trend in time, where daily survival was lowest in late September and was high overwinter. An interaction between the quadratic trend in time and year resulted in the low point of daily survival shifting within the season between years (27 vs. 17 Sep for 2008 and 2009, respectively). Overall (15 Aug–31 Mar) derived survival ranged 0.42–0.62 for females and 0.23–0.44 for males. For all years pooled, the probability death was due to predation was 0.73, reported harvest was 0.16, unreported harvest was 0.09, and other undetermined factors was 0.02. We observed 0% and 6.8% crippling loss (from hunting) in 2008 and 2009, respectively. We recommend the adoption of harvest management strategies that attempt to shift harvest away from juveniles and incorporate crippling rates. In addition, future survival studies on juvenile sage‐grouse should use caution if implementing dorsally mounted transmitters because of the potential for experimental bias. © 2014 The Wildlife Society.