Effects of Landscape-Scale Environmental Variation on Greater Sage-Grouse Chick Survival

Guttery, Michael R.; Dahlgren, David K.; Messmer, Terry A.; Connelly, John W.; Reese, Kerry P.; Terletzky, Pat; Burkepile, Nathan; Koons, David N.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065582

Cited by 53 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…ASY females had higher nest initiation and nest survival, constituted a larger proportion of the population, and had higher reproductive value; thus, ASY females contributed significantly more recruitment into the population. Of note, estimates of chick survival at PM are among the highest reported for sage-grouse (Aldridge and Boyce 2007, Gregg et al 2007, Dahlgren et al 2010a, Guttery et al 2013a, and in addition to focusing more on post-fledging survival, our results suggest that greater attention be paid to the factors driving variation in chick survival (e.g., forb and arthropod abundance, timing of precipitation, habitat conditions; Connelly et al 2000, Guttery et al 2013a) as opposed to focusing on nest survival.…”

Section: Sy Hsmentioning

confidence: 48%

“…We were unable to monitor partial depredation, though partial depredation is a rare occurrence for sage-grouse (Coates 2007). We only used clutch sizes of successful nests during our study, but recognize there is potential for bias if clutch size differed for unsuccessful nests (Schroeder 1997 (Dahlgren et al 2010a, Guttery et al 2013a. Throughout the study period, brood success was estimated as the proportion of broods where ≥1 chick was observed alive ≥42 d post hatch.…”

Section: Field Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Species conservation efforts often use short-term studies that fail to identify the vital rates that contribute most to population growth. Although the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) is a candidate for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is sometimes referred to as an umbrella species in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome of western North America, the failure of proposed management strategies to focus on key vital rates that may contribute most to achieving population stability remains problematic for sustainable conservation. To address this dilemma, we performed both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses of a life cycle model based on a 12-yr study that encompassed nearly all sage-grouse vital rates. To validate our population models, we compared estimates of annual finite population growth rates (λ) from our female-based life cycle models to those attained from male-based lek counts. Post-fledging (i.e., after second year, second year, and juvenile) female survival parameters contributed most to past variation in λ during our study and had the greatest potential to change λ in the future, indicating these vital rates as important determinants of sage-grouse population dynamics. In addition, annual estimates of λ from female-based life cycle models and malebased lek data were similar, providing the most rigorous evidence to date that lek counts of males can serve as a valid index of sage-grouse population change. Our comparison of fixed and mixed statistical models for evaluating temporal variation in nest survival and initiation suggest that conservation planners use caution when evaluating short-term nesting studies and using associated fixed-effect results to develop conservation objectives. In addition, our findings indicated that greater attention should be paid to those factors affecting sage-grouse post-fledging females. Our approach demonstrates the need for more long-term studies of species vital rates across the life cycle. Such studies should address the decoupling of sampling variation from underlying process (co)variation in vital rates, identification of how such variation drives population dynamics, and how decision makers can use this information to re-direct conservation efforts to address the most limiting points in the life cycle for a given population.

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Section: Sy Hsmentioning

confidence: 48%

Section: Field Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

et al. 2016

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“…Burned areas within high and moderate R&R index classes (cool and moist soils) were assigned to respective fast-track and slow-track recovery rates, based on a meta-analysis of sagebrush postfire recovery (30), whereas burned areas within the low R&R index class (warm and dry soils) were assumed to reflect a permanent state transition to invasive grassland (31) ( Table S2). We also considered interactions with precipitation because water availability is integral to ecosystem productivity in cold deserts like the Great Basin (32), and can drive sage-grouse population dynamics independent of wildfire (22,33). Using model-derived parameters of fire effects on λ, we then projected sage-grouse populations 30 y into the future and identified a fire suppression strategy that may slow or halt projected declines.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Coates

Ricca

Prochazka

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

144

183

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Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass–fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

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“…Environmental conditions can result in variable monthly or seasonal survival while maintaining stable annual survival patterns for female sage-grouse (Blomberg et al 2013b). Our understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors influencing this vital rate is just beginning to emerge (Guttery et al 2013), and sage-grouse show large annual fluctuations in vital rates across their range (Crawford et al 2004, Taylor et al 2012. We had small sample sizes and a short study duration, therefore, even though we used an experimental approach, it is unclear what effect natural variation had on our estimates.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) select habitat based on avian predators, landscape composition, and anthropogenic features

et al. 2014

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Effects of Landscape-Scale Environmental Variation on Greater Sage-Grouse Chick Survival

Cited by 53 publications

References 63 publications

Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) select habitat based on avian predators, landscape composition, and anthropogenic features

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