[1] A three-dimensional primitive equation numerical model was applied to Lake Michigan on a 2 km grid for 6 consecutive years to study interannual variability of summer circulation and thermal structure in 1998-2003. The model results were compared to long-term observations of currents and temperature at seven moorings and two NOAA buoys. The accuracy of modeled currents improved considerably relative to previous summer circulation modeling done on a 5 km grid, while the accuracy of temperature simulations remained the same. Particle trajectory model results were also compared with satellite-tracked surface drifter observations. Large-scale circulation patterns tend to be more cyclonic (counterclockwise) toward the end of summer as the thermocline deepens and density effects become more important. Circulation in southern Lake Michigan appears to be more variable than circulation in northern Lake Michigan. An important new feature not previously seen in observations was found in southern Lake Michigan: an anticyclonic gyre extending northward from the southern shore of Lake Michigan, sometimes occupying the entire southern basin.
To better understand lateral dispersion of buoyant and nonbuoyant pollutants within the surface waters of large lakes, two lateral dispersion experiments were carried out in Lake Michigan during the stratified period: (1) a dye tracking experiment lasting 1 d; and (2) a drifter tracking experiment lasting 24 d. Both the dye patch and drifters were surface‐released at the center of Lake Michigan's southern basin. Near‐surface shear induced by near‐inertial Poincaré waves partially explains elevated dye dispersion rates (1.5–4.2 m2 s−1). During the largely windless first 5 d of the drifter release, the drifters exhibited nearly scale‐independent dispersion (
K ∼ L0.2), with an average dispersion coefficient of 0.14 m2 s−1. Scale‐dependent drifter dispersion ensued after 5 d, with
K ∼ L1.09 and corresponding dispersion coefficients of 0.3–2.0 m2 s−1 for length scales L = 1500–8000 m. The largest drifter dispersion rates were found to be associated with lateral shear‐induced spreading along a thermal front. Comparisons with other systems show a wide range of spreading rates for large lakes, and larger rates in both the ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, which may be caused by the relative absence of submesoscale processes in offshore Lake Michigan.
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