Heat tolerance is a trait of paramount ecological importance and may determine a species' ability to cope with ongoing climate change. Although critical thermal limits have consequently received substantial attention in recent years, their potential variation throughout ontogeny remained largely neglected. We investigate whether such neglect may bias conclusions regarding a species' sensitivity to climate change. Using a tropical butterfly, we found that developmental stages clearly differed in heat tolerance. It was highest in pupae followed by larvae, adults and finally eggs and hatchlings. Strikingly, most of the variation found in thermal tolerance was explained by differences in body mass, which may thus impose a severe constraint on adaptive variation in stress tolerance. Furthermore, temperature acclimation was beneficial by increasing heat knock-down time and therefore immediate survival under heat stress, but it affected reproduction negatively. Extreme temperatures strongly reduced survival and subsequent reproductive success even in our highly plastic model organism, exemplifying the potentially dramatic impact of extreme weather events on biodiversity. We argue that predictions regarding a species' fate under changing environmental conditions should consider variation in thermal tolerance throughout ontogeny, variation in body mass and acclimation responses as important predictors of stress tolerance.

Climate change poses a significant challenge to all natural systems on Earth. Especially increases in extreme weather events such as heat waves have the potential to strongly affect biodiversity, though their effects are poorly understood because of a lack of empirical data. Therefore, we here explore the sensitivity of a tropical ectotherm, which are in general believed to have a low warming tolerance, to experimentally simulated climate change using ecologically realistic diurnal temperature cycles. Increasing the mean temperature permanently by 3°C had mostly minor effects on developmental traits in the butterfly Bicyclus anynana. Simulated heat waves (strongly elevated temperatures for some time though retaining the same overall temperature mean), in contrast, caused strong negative effects by prolonging development time (by up to 10%) and reducing body mass (−21%), especially when combined with reduced relative humidity. Detrimental effects were carried over into the adult stage, diminishing subsequent performance. Most strikingly, higher temperatures suppressed adult immune function (haemocytes: −54%, lysozyme activity: −32%), which may potentially change the way species interact with antagonists. Heat waves thus reduced fitness parameters by 10-25% for development time and body mass and by up to 54% for immune parameters even in this plastic and widespread butterfly, exemplifying the potentially dramatic impact of extreme weather events on biodiversity.

Increasing heat stress caused by anthropogenic climate change may pose a substantial challenge to biodiversity due to associated detrimental effects on survival and reproduction. Therefore, heat tolerance has recently received substantial attention, but its variation throughout ontogeny and effects carried over from one developmental stage to another remained largely neglected. To explore to what extent stress experienced early in life affects later life stages, we here investigate effects of heat stress experienced in the egg stage throughout ontogeny in the tropical butterfly Bicyclus anynana. We found that detrimental effects of heat stress in the egg stage were detectable in hatchlings, larvae and even resulting adults, as evidenced by decreased survival, growth, and body mass. This study shows that even in holometabalous insects with discrete life stages effects of stress experienced early in life are carried over to later stages, substantially reducing subsequent fitness. We argue that such effects need to be considered when trying to forecast species responses to climate change.

Background: Dispersal and reproduction are key life-history traits that jointly determine species' potential to expand their distribution, for instance in light of ongoing climate change. These life-history traits are known to be under selection by changing local environmental conditions, but they may also evolve by spatial sorting. While local natural selection and spatial sorting are mainly studied in model organisms, we do not know the degree to which these processes are relevant in the wild, despite their importance to a comprehensive understanding of species' resistance and tolerance to climate change. Methods: The wasp spider Argiope bruennichi has undergone a natural range expansion-from the Mediterranean to Northern Europe during the recent decades. Using reciprocal common garden experiments in the laboratory, we studied differences in crucial traits between replicated core (Southern France) and edge (Baltic States) populations. We tested theoretical predictions of enhanced dispersal (ballooning behaviour) and reproductive performance (fecundity and winter survival) at the expansion front due to spatial sorting and local environmental conditions. Results: Dispersal rates were not consistently higher at the northern expansion front, but were impacted by the overwintering climatic conditions experienced, such that dispersal was higher when spiderlings had experienced winter conditions as occur in their region. Hatching success and winter survival were lower at the range border. In agreement with theoretical predictions, spiders from the northern leading edge invested more in reproduction for their given body size. Conclusions: We found no evidence for spatial sorting leading to higher dispersal in northern range edge populations of A. bruennichi. However, reproductive investment and overwintering survival between core and edge populations differed. These life-history traits that directly affect species' expansion rates seem to have diverged during the recent range expansion of A. bruennichi. We discuss the observed changes with respect to the species' natural history and the ecological drivers associated with range expansion to northern latitudes.

No abstract