This study develops a framework using the Lanchester Laws in a hybrid system dynamics model. Two models of the Lanchester Laws are compared. The first is a traditional discrete event simulation and the other is a system dynamics model. System dynamics models are able to represent qualitative aspects of combat that are difficult to capture in a discrete event simulation. This is directly applicable to modeling combat since some key drivers within the expected environment are difficult to model. Additionally, the system dynamics construct allows for the modeling of continuous events and incorporating system feedback. Both of these properties are favored when modeling combat or asymmetrical operations. Results from the discrete event simulation and the system dynamics model are analyzed and contrasted.
This study develops the concepts of fourth generation operations and the associated principles. First, the concept of fourth generation operations is introduced and defined. Fourth generation operations are the evolution and extension of third and fourth generation warfare based on a change of tactics, technology, and combatants. These operations are currently ongoing in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with the global war on terrorism. Based on the framework of US joint doctrine, the supporting principles of fourth generation operations are developed. This requires the introduction of the principle of Population Perception.
In periods of declining budgets, it becomes increasingly important to select the best possible research and development programs to invest in, and then to be able to articulate the rationale for the selection. Competing alternative investments will have a complex tradeoff of costs and diverse benefits, over different time periods and with different levels of certainty. In particular, the Air Force Research Laboratory needs to select which investments to pursue to improve fixed-wing vehicle performance. Multiobjective decision analysis is applied to this problem to produce a decision aid that captures their corporate objectives and allows full analysis of the tradeoffs between alternatives. The decision aid is described in detail and a brief example of its use is presented.
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