A System Dynamics Model for Selected Elements Of Modern Conflict

Artelli, Michael J.

doi:10.5711/morj.14.2.51

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Thus 'what if' speculations may occur with a common audit trail to rationalise insights. This will contrast with cases where features are quantifiable and which could lead to a system dynamics approach, such as for military (Coyle et al 1999;Artelli et al 2009;Homer and Hirsch 2006) and health (Smits 2010) studies. Perhaps the key difference in this work is that we note that our variables are unquantifiable and for this reason literature comparing DES with systems dynamics while useful for comparing model development is of less use in discussion about outputs Robinson 2010, 2009;Brailsford and Hilton 2001).…”

Section: Modelling Based On Functional ('Influence') Diagramsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Empirical modelling methods to identify issues of concern in a two-sided military system

Curtis

Shrivastava

Moon

2014

EURO Journal on Decision Processes

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We propose the notion of a 'substrate' model which can be used as a common and agreed picture to develop issues of concern in the problem-structuring phase of a study. Such a process provides a transparent and defensible means to develop prioritised options for consideration by decision makers. In this paper, we explore two empirical methods, one based on sequential examination of events in a process and the other uses a functional (influence diagram like) approach to explore how system features change with time. An example is taken from a current problem in the military sphere-the two-sided interaction involving the use of, and defence against, improvised explosive devices. In this paper, we illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the two modelling methods, the complementarity of the use of a more concrete 'substrate model' with the 'softer' aspects of problem structuring and the implications of the clients' needs, in particular the position of the study within the typical Defence capability development life cycle. We believe that such empirical methods will have practical application to similar studies at the 'front-end'.

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Section: Modelling Based On Functional ('Influence') Diagramsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Empirical modelling methods to identify issues of concern in a two-sided military system

Curtis

Shrivastava

Moon

2014

EURO Journal on Decision Processes

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“…In a slightly different vein, SD researchers explicitly addressed the feedback between human decision-makers' ability to execute the commandand-control loop with respect to managing supply chains and force deployment using improved information and sensor technology (Bakken & Vamraak, 2003;Lofdahl, 2006). Lastly, Artelli et al (2008Artelli et al ( , 2009 is an exemplar of extending operations research concepts to include psychological and political science constructs. Specifically, they extend the classic Lanchester laws-which define the odds ratio of a larger force winning as a function of its numerical advantage in troops-to include endogenous factors such as troop fatigue and public morale.…”

Section: Conflict Defense and Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lastly, Artelli et al. (2008, 2009) is an exemplar of extending operations research concepts to include psychological and political science constructs. Specifically, they extend the classic Lanchester laws—which define the odds ratio of a larger force winning as a function of its numerical advantage in troops—to include endogenous factors such as troop fatigue and public morale.…”

Section: Literature Review and Open Questions By Clustermentioning

confidence: 99%

Opportunities for system dynamics research in operations management for public policy

Anderson

Keith²,

López³

2023

Production and Operations Management

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Operations management (OM) in the public policy context is extremely complex with many mutually interacting factors characterized by feedback loops, delays and nonlinearities, as well as multiple stakeholders pursuing divergent objectives. Prior researchers have called for a systems approach in these contexts, arguing that standard OM methodologies such as mathematical programming, and queuing theory often cannot fully address these problems. Researchers have employed one such systems approach, system dynamics, successfully for decades for studying OM problems in public policy because it can address such complexity and can also integrate disciplines from outside OM such as political science, epidemiology, ecology, etc. In this paper, we create a roadmap for researchers—both those who are familiar with systems dynamics and those who are not—for the expanded use of system dynamics studying public policy‐related OM problems. We review and organize relevant system dynamics literature in both traditional operations management venues as well as public policy venues unfamiliar to OM audiences. We then identify a set of interesting open questions and potential system dynamics building blocks for answering them by topic. Leveraging this review, we describe under what conditions system dynamics is most appropriate. We then identify several overarching methodological and domain gaps for future research. Finally, we build on previous work to extend a process for using system dynamics with traditional operations management methodologies. It separates model building into two sequential phases: consensus‐building models and detailed operational models. It also incorporates scenario planning and feedback from implementation outcomes.

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“…Liu et al, 2014); soldiers' performance (e.g. Artelli at al., 2009); territory patrol and control (e.g. Coyle, 1996); command and control (e.g.…”

Section: Where Does Sd Combat Modelling Fit Within the Broad Sd Defence Modelling Domain?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These models investigate how socio-cultural (e.g., public opinion) and human cognitive and/or behavioural variables (e.g., soldier morale) affect battlefield performance (e.g. Artelli et al, 2009). Models within this theme also examine how social and cultural factors influence conflict and insurgency (e.g.…”

Section: Recurring Themes Of Sd Combat Modelling Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

System dynamics applications for defence combat modelling: preliminary insights from a literature exploration

2021

MODSIM2021, 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.

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System dynamics (SD) encompasses a suite of conceptual and simulation methods used to study complex system behaviour over time. The structure of an SD model represents the cause-effect relationships and feedback loops in the system. SD models include stocks and flows to map system structure. Stocks, also known as accumulations, characterise the system state and change in response to flows (also known as rates). For example, the number of armoured vehicles involved in a conflict could be represented as a stock that changes in response to the attrition rate. SD causal mapping and conceptual models help teams generate ideas and facilitate shared understanding by developing a coherent representation of the problem. The causal representation of SD models provides a useful means for stakeholders to understand dynamic problems, reason about the effect of changes, and identify potential leverage points. The use of simulation methods to examine dynamic behaviour over time enables assessing alternative decisions under a range of scenarios, evaluating the veracity of different views and providing evidence linking assumptions and outcomes.SD has been used to analyse a range of different defence decisions and topics. In this paper, we focus on combat modelling as an important research and application area in defence modelling. Given the lack of synthesis on the use of SD in combat modelling, this paper provides a preliminary exploration of the topic to identify the most salient points and set the groundwork for future research. We review and synthesise published SD applications in combat modelling to understand how SD models have been used to analyse alternative combat force designs and strategies. The review provides a starting point for researchers who want to understand the SD combat modelling literature and those who want to build SD models to examine combat dynamics.The paper is organised around addressing four research questions: (i) why use SD for combat modelling, (ii) where does SD combat modelling fit within the broad SD defence modelling domain, (iii) what recurrent themes and operationalisation can be found in SD combat models, and (iv) what is the SD combat modelling state of the art? We conclude by identifying promising future research directions, such as: applying SD to explain the impact of new technologies involving the integration of autonomous systems to combat.

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A System Dynamics Model for Selected Elements Of Modern Conflict

Cited by 5 publications

References 8 publications

Empirical modelling methods to identify issues of concern in a two-sided military system

Empirical modelling methods to identify issues of concern in a two-sided military system

Opportunities for system dynamics research in operations management for public policy

System dynamics applications for defence combat modelling: preliminary insights from a literature exploration

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