As part of a World Health Organization-led effort to update the empirical evidence base for the leishmaniases, national experts provided leishmaniasis case data for the last 5 years and information regarding treatment and control in their respective countries and a comprehensive literature review was conducted covering publications on leishmaniasis in 98 countries and three territories (see ‘Leishmaniasis Country Profiles Text S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22, S23, S24, S25, S26, S27, S28, S29, S30, S31, S32, S33, S34, S35, S36, S37, S38, S39, S40, S41, S42, S43, S44, S45, S46, S47, S48, S49, S50, S51, S52, S53, S54, S55, S56, S57, S58, S59, S60, S61, S62, S63, S64, S65, S66, S67, S68, S69, S70, S71, S72, S73, S74, S75, S76, S77, S78, S79, S80, S81, S82, S83, S84, S85, S86, S87, S88, S89, S90, S91, S92, S93, S94, S95, S96, S97, S98, S99, S100, S101’). Additional information was collated during meetings conducted at WHO regional level between 2007 and 2011. Two questionnaires regarding epidemiology and drug access were completed by experts and national program managers. Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence ranges were estimated by country and epidemiological region based on reported incidence, underreporting rates if available, and the judgment of national and international experts. Based on these estimates, approximately 0.2 to 0.4 cases and 0.7 to 1.2 million VL and CL cases, respectively, occur each year. More than 90% of global VL cases occur in six countries: India, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is more widely distributed, with about one-third of cases occurring in each of three epidemiological regions, the Americas, the Mediterranean basin, and western Asia from the Middle East to Central Asia. The ten countries with the highest estimated case counts, Afghanistan, Algeria, Colombia, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, North Sudan, Costa Rica and Peru, together account for 70 to 75% of global estimated CL incidence. Mortality data were extremely sparse and generally represent hospital-based deaths only. Using an overall case-fatality rate of 10%, we reach a tentative estimate of 20,000 to 40,000 leishmaniasis deaths per year. Although the information is very poor in a number of countries, this is the first in-depth exercise to better estimate the real impact of leishmaniasis. These data should help to define control strategies and reinforce leishmaniasis advocacy.

BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis is a lethal parasitic disease transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies. The largest focus of VL in Ethiopia is located in the lowland region bordering Sudan, where the epidemiology is complicated by the presence of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers who live under precarious conditions.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe conducted two parallel case-control studies to identify factors associated with VL risk in residents and migrants. The studies were conducted from 2009 to 2011 and included 151 resident cases and 157 migrant cases, with 2 matched controls per case. In multivariable conditional regression models, sleeping under an acacia tree at night (odds ratios (OR) 5.2 [95% confidence interval 1.7–16.4] for residents and 4.7 [1.9–12.0] for migrants), indicators of poverty and lower educational status were associated with increased risk in both populations. Strong protective effects were observed for bed net use (OR 0.24 [0.12–0.48] for net use in the rainy season among residents, OR 0.20 [0.10–0.42] for any net use among migrants). For residents, living in a house with thatch walls conferred 5-fold and sleeping on the ground 3-fold increased risk. Among migrants, the risk associated with HIV status was borderline significant and sleeping near dogs was associated with 7-fold increased risk.Conclusions/SignificancePreventive strategies should focus on ways to ensure net usage, especially among migrant workers without fixed shelters. More research is needed to understand migration patterns of seasonal labourers and vector bionomics.

We conducted a case-control study to evaluate risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis during an epidemic in a previously unaffected district of Ethiopia. We also collected blood and bone marrow specimens from dogs in the outbreak villages. In multivariable analyses of 171 matched case-control pairs, dog ownership, sleeping under an acacia tree during the day, and habitually sleeping outside at night were associated with significantly increased risk. Specimens from 7 (3.8%) dogs were positive by immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and both enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), whereas Leishmania DNA was detected in 5 (2.8%) bone marrow aspirates (from 3 seropositive and 2 seronegative dogs). Insecticide-treated nets may only protect a portion of those at risk. Further research on the vectors, the role of the dog in the transmission cycle, and the effect of candidate interventions are needed to design the best strategy for control.

Abstract. Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease strongly associated with poverty. Treatment is problematic and no vaccine is available. Ethiopia has seen new outbreaks in areas previously not known to be endemic, often with co-infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with rates reaching 5.6% of the cases. The present study concerns the development of a risk model based on environmental factors using geographical information systems (GIS), statistical analysis and modelling. Odds ratio (OR) of bivariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the relative importance of environmental factors, accepting P ≤0.056 as the inclusion level for the model's environmental variables. When estimating risk from the viewpoint of geographical surface, slope, elevation and annual rainfall were found to be good predictors of CL presence based on both probabilistic and weighted overlay approaches. However, when considering Ethiopia as whole, a minor difference was observed between the two methods with the probabilistic technique giving a 22.5% estimate, while that of weighted overlay approach was 19.5%. Calculating the population according to the land surface estimated by the latter method, the total Ethiopian population at risk for CL was estimated at 28,955,035, mainly including people in the highlands of the regional states of Amhara, Oromia, Tigray and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region, one of the nine ethnic divisions in Ethiopia. Our environmental risk model provided an overall prediction accuracy of 90.4%. The approach proposed here can be replicated for other diseases to facilitate implementation of evidence-based, integrated disease control activities.

Abstract. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a vector-borne disease strongly influenced by environmental factors, has (re)-emerged in Ethiopia during the last two decades and is currently of increasing public health concern. Based on VL incidence in each locality (kebele) documented from federal or regional health bureaus and/or hospital records in the country, geographical information systems (GIS), coupled with binary and multivariate logistic regression methods, were employed to develop a risk map for Ethiopia with respect to VL based on soil type, altitude, rainfall, slope and temperature. The risk model was subsequently validated in selected sites. This environmental VL risk model provided an overall prediction accuracy of 86% with mean land surface temperature and soil type found to be the best predictors of VL. The total population at risk was estimated at 3.2 million according to the national population census in 2007. The approach presented here should facilitate the identification of priority areas for intervention and the monitoring of trends as well as providing input for further epidemiological and applied research with regard to this disease in Ethiopia.

Immunosuppression contributes significantly to the caseload of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). HIV coinfection, solid organ transplantation, malnutrition, and helminth infections are the most important immunosuppression-related factors. This review briefly describes the challenges of these associations. East Africa and the Indian subcontinent are the places where HIV imposes the highest burden in VL. In the highlands of Northern Ethiopia, migrant rural workers are at a greater risk of coinfection and malnutrition, while in India, HIV reduces the sustainability of a successful elimination programme. As shown from a longitudinal cohort in Madrid, VL is an additional threat to solid organ transplantation. The association with malnutrition is more complex since it can be both a cause and a consequence of VL. Different regimes for therapy and secondary prevention are discussed as well as the role of nutrients on the prophylaxis of VL in poverty-stricken endemic areas.

In May 2005, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was recognized for the first time in Libo Kemken, Ethiopia, a highland region where only few cases had been reported before. We analyzed records of VL patients treated from May 25, 2005 to December 13, 2007 by the only VL treatment center in the area, maintained by Médecins Sans Frontières-Ethiopia, Operational Center Barcelona-Athens. The median age was 18 years; 77.6% were male. The overall case fatality rate was 4%, but adults 45 years or older were five times as likely to die as 5-29 year olds. Other factors associated with increased mortality included HIV infection, edema, severe malnutrition, pneumonia, tuberculosis, and vomiting. The VL epidemic expanded rapidly over a several-year period, culminating in an epidemic peak in the last third of 2005, spread over two districts, and transformed into a sustained endemic situation by 2007.

Abstract. We assessed the performance characteristics of two rK39 immunochromatographic tests, a direct agglutination test (DAT), and an indirect immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT) in the site of a new epidemic of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in northwestern Ethiopia. The study population was composed of 179 patients with suspected VL and 67 controls. The sensitivities of Kalazar Detect ® , DiaMed-IT Leish ® , DAT, and IFAT in 35 polymerase chain reaction-confirmed VL cases were 94.3%, 91.4%, 91.4%, and 100%, respectively, and the specificities were 98.5%, 94%, 98.5%, and 98.5%, respectively. In a Bayesian latent class analysis of all 246 specimens, the estimated sensitivities were 90.5%, 89%, 88.8%, and 96% for Kalazar Detect ® , DiaMed-IT Leish ® , DAT, and IFAT, respectively; DAT showed the highest estimated specificity (97.4%). Both rK39 immunochromatographic tests perform as well as DAT, and are suitable for VL diagnosis in first-level health centers in this area of Ethiopia.