In this research, 15 meteorological stations located in western Anatolia in Turkey were investigated for determining temperature properties. The vegetation season has been determined according to days when the daily temperature was greater than or equal to 8°C. The research area has 3 different vegetation durations as longer (more than 225 days in the western and southern parts), moderate (210-220 days in plateaus around Uşak, Gediz and Demirci), and shorter (180-195 days in the eastern part and less than 180 days in mountainous areas). Then, the vegetation has been reinvestigated according to climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). For this purpose, the daily mean temperatures were raised by 2.6°C and 4.8°C for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In the reinvestigation period, the vegetation period will increase about 15-20 days or over 40 days according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Along with the increase in temperature throughout the research area, growing seasons will be significantly affected, beginning and ending dates of vegetation would shift. Owing to climate change effects, mountainous areas may be affected more than low altitude areas. As a conclusion due to the result of increasing temperature, plant development and distribution will be affected, and new plant species may occur.
The Pleistocene is an important period for assessing the effects of climate change on biological diversity. In the beginning of this period, many tree species disappeared in the flora of Europe, with ongoing, but smaller losses later, and many tree species exhibiting repeated strong range shifts mostly at the end of the period. It is thought that some areas will be more affected from possible climate change. The Mediterranean Basin is the most important among the mentioned sensitive areas. Species with scattered, relict populations in the region would be more affected by future climate change. One such species is Taxus baccata. Taxus baccata, which is distributed throughout the temperate zones of Northern hemisphere, is the only species of Taxus to be naturally distributed in Turkey. Apart from its general dispersal area in the north of Turkey, Taxus baccata is seen in small groups in protected local areas in southern Anatolia. The aim of this study is to determine the potential effects of past and future climate change on the distribution of Taxus baccata in Bolkar Mountains, using species distribution modelling. We studied how the potential distribution has been affected by the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate and the subsequent climate shift to the present, and it can be expected to be affected by future climate change, as represented by a range of future climate change scenarios. For this purpose, Maxent is used for determining the distribution of Taxus baccata. Our Maxent model results show that the AUC values are calculated as 0,85 and 0,80 in sequence. Our results show that the Taxus baccata would have found suitable conditions in the Bolkar Mountains area even during the LGM, pointing to this as an important refuge area. With also find that the potential distribution in Kadincik Valley (on the southern slope of Bolkar Mountains) of Taxus baccata has been reduced with the shift to a Holocene climate, and the distribution in Taurus Mountains is likely diminish even further under future climate change. Our results show that Taxus baccata is a cool-climate relict in southern Turkey and that its distribution is likely to come under further pressure from future climate change. This situation is likely shared with many other temperate plant species persisting with small populations in mountain areas in the region.
Abstract. In this study, we have investigated changes of vegetation in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey approximately for the last 5000 years using pollen analysis . There were some differences in the past vegetation, but principally vegetation structure has shown similarity with the modern one. Main difference appeared with the existence of Betula.
Turkey, which has richer biodiversity than many surrounding countries, takes some measures at the national and international level to carry this feature to the future in a sustainable way. Conservation of biodiversity is to determine the prominent areas in this regard and the determination of species diversity at a local scale depends on scientific studies. One of the biodiversity levels, alpha species diversity provides the information necessary for the conservation of any area, however, it is also very important to know the sensitivity of habitats to external factors. By determining the balance and sensitivity of ecosystems, the conservation concept can be addressed from a holistic perspective by determining the areas where species are distributed in a balanced way as well as biodiversity. In this study, by applying SHE analysis to the alpha diversity values of Kargı and Karpuz Stream valleys, the species richness and Shannon alpha diversity values of the areas, as well as the balance and sensitivity of the species within the community, were investigated. As a result, by adding the number of individuals and their distribution in the sample areas to the plant species diversity data, the regions that should be given priority in protection in these valleys were determined.
Meral AvciDie Genese der türkischen Bourgeoisie -von ihren Anfängen im Osmanischen Reich bis hin zur jüngeren Phase der Gründung der Republik Türkei .
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Anadolu'da Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica ve Juniperus drupacea'nın Son Buzul Maksimumu, günümüz ve gelecekte iklim değişikliklerine olan/olacak tepkilerini tahmin etmektir. Bu amaç kapsamında ele alınan konifer türlerin, küresel iklim değişim senaryolarına bağlı model sonuçlarına göre Anadolu'da zamansal ve mekânsal dağılışları ortaya koyulmuştur. İncelenen türlerin zamansal ve mekânsal dağılışlarında tahminlerde bulunmak üzere fosil polen verileri, günümüz dağılış verileri ve WorldClim'den temin edilen 19 biyoiklimsel değişken kullanılmıştır. Bu değişkenlere PCA yöntemi uygulanmış ve tür dağılış modelleri için 8 değişken belirlenmiştir. Modeller CCSM4 modeli ve gelecek projeksiyonları için RCP 8.5 senaryosu ile üretilmiştir. Modellerin üretilmesi için MaxEnt 3.4.1 ve ArcGIS 10.5 yazılımı kullanılmıştır. Projeksiyonların doğruluklarını ölçen AUC test değerleri ise 0,90'nın üzerindedir. 8 biyoiklimsel değişken içinde modellere en fazla katkı sağlayan değişkenler; Cedrus libani için BIO14 %32,
Understanding how natural ecosystems are and will be responding to climate change is one of the primary goals of ecological research. Plant phenology is accepted as one of the most sensitive bioindicators of climate change due to its strong interactions with climate dynamics, and a vast number of studies from all around the world present evidence considering phenological shifts as a response to climatic changes. Land surface phenology (LSP) is also a valuable tool in the absence of observational phenology data for monitoring the aforementioned shift responses. Our aim was to investigate the phenological shifts of Fagus orientalis forests in Turkey by means of daily MODIS surface reflectance data (MOD09GA) for the period between 2002 and 2020. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated for the entire Turkey extent. This extent was then masked for F. orientalis. These “Fagus pixels” were then filtered by a minimum of 80% spatial and an annual 20% temporal coverage. A combination of two methods was applied to the time series for smoothing and reconstruction and the start of season (SOS), end of season, and length of season parameters were extracted. Trends in these parameters over the 19-year period were analyzed. The results were in concert with the commonly reported earlier SOS pattern, by a Sen’s slope of −0.8 days year−1. Lastly, the relationships between SOS and mean, maximum and minimum temperature, growing degree days (GDD), and chilling hours (CH) were investigated. Results showed that the most significant correlations were found between the mean SOS trend and accumulated CH and accumulated GDD with a base temperature of 2 °C, both for the February–March interval. The immediate need for a phenological observation network in Turkey and its region is discussed.
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