China’s reported cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and AIDS increased from over 50000 in 2011 to more than 130000 in 2017, while AIDS related search indices on Baidu from 2.1 million to 3.7 million in the same time periods. In China, people seek AIDS related knowledge from Baidu which one of the world’s largest search engine. We study the relationship of national HIV surveillance data with the Baidu index (BDI) and use it to monitor AIDS epidemic and inform targeted intervention. After screening keywords and making index composition, we used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. The most correlated search engine query data was obtained by using ARIMA with external variables (ARIMAX) model for epidemic prediction. A significant correlation between monthly HIV/AIDS report cases and Baidu Composite Index (r = 0.845, P < 0.001) was observed using time series plot. Compared with the ARIMA model based on AIDS surveillance data, the ARIMAX model with Baidu Composite Index had the minimal an Akaike information criterion (AIC, 839.42) and the most exact prediction (MAPE of 6.11%). We showed that there are close correlations of the same trends between BDI and HIV/AIDS reports cases for both increasing and decreasing AIDS epidemic. Therefore, the Baidu search query data may be a good useful indicator for reliably monitoring and predicting HIV/AIDS epidemic in China.

HIV-1 CRF08_BC has become a major epidemic in heterosexuals and intravenous drug users (IDUs) in southern China. In order to evaluate the trends of its epidemic and facilitate targeted HIV prevention, we calculated pairwise genetic distance and constructed the genetic transmission networks based on its pol sequences, derived from the National HIV Molecular Epidemiology Survey. We conducted retrospective network analyses to evaluate changes in inferred clusters over time and studied the epidemic and demographic correlates with transmission networks. Of the 1,829 study subjects, 639 (34.9%) were clustered in 151 transmission networks. A trend of decrease in HIV-1 CRF08_BC infected people clustering in the transmission network was noticed with time. Factors associated with increased clustering include IDUs, heterosexual men, young adults and people with lower education (P<0.05 for all). The IDUs, MSM, young adult and person with low education had more potential transmission links as well (P<0.05 for all). The most crossover links were found between heterosexual women and IDUs, with 30.9% heterosexual women linked to IDUs and 45.4% IDUs to heterosexual women. The crossover links heterosexual women were mainly those with middle age and single (P<0.001). This study indicated that the HIV-1 CRF08_BC epidemic was still on going in China with more than one third of the infected people clustered in the transmission networks. Meanwhile, the study could help identify the active CRF08_BC spreader in the local community and greatly facilitate précising AIDS prevention with targeted intervention.

There are great disparities of the results in immune reconstruction (IR) of the HIV-1 infected patients during combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), due to both host polymorphisms and viral genetic subtypes. Identifying these factors and elucidating their impact on the IR could help to improve the efficacy. To study the factors influencing the IR, we conducted a 15-year retrospective cohort study of HIV-1 infected individuals under cART. The trend of CD4 + count changes was evaluated by the generalized estimating equations. Cox proportional model and propensity score matching were used to identify variables that affect the possibility of achieving IR. The tropism characteristics of virus were compared using the coreceptor binding model. In addition to baseline CD4 + counts and age implications, CRF01_AE cluster 1 was associated with a poorer probability of achieving IR than infection with cluster 2 (aHR, 1.39; 95%CI, 1.02-1.90) and other subtypes (aHR, 1.83; 95%CI, 1.31-2.56). The mean time from cART initiation to achieve IR was much longer in patients infected by CRF01_AE cluster 1 than other subtypes/sub-clusters ( P < 0.001). In-depth analysis indicated that a higher proportion of CXCR4 viruses were found in CRF01_AE clusters 1 and 2 ( P < 0.05), and showed tendency to favour CXCR4 binding to V3 signatures. This study indicated the immune restoration impairment found in patients were associated with HIV-1 CRF01_AE cluster 1, which was attributed to the high proportion of CXCR4-tropic viruses. To improve the effectiveness of cART, more efforts should be made in the early identification of HIV-1 subtype/sub-cluster and monitoring of virus phenotypes.

Simultaneous identification of multiple single genes and multi-gene prognostic signatures with higher efficacy in liver cancer has rarely been reported. Here, 1,173 genes potentially related to the liver cancer prognosis were mined with Coremine, and the gene expression and survival data in 370 samples for overall survival (OS) and 319 samples for disease-free survival (DFS) were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Numerous survival analyses results revealed that 39 genes and 28 genes significantly associated with DFS and OS in liver cancer, including 18 and 12 novel genes that have not been systematically reported in relation to the liver cancer prognosis, respectively. Next, totally 9,139 three-gene combinations (including 816 constructed by 18 novel genes) for predicting DFS and 3,276 three-gene combinations (including 220 constructed by 12 novel genes) for predicting OS were constructed based on the above genes, and the top 15 of these four parts three-gene combinations were selected and shown. Moreover, a huge difference between high and low expression group of these three-gene combination was detected, with median survival difference of DFS up to 65.01 months, and of OS up to 83.57 months. The high or low expression group of these three-gene combinations can predict the longest prognosis of DFS and OS is 71.91 months and 102.66 months, and the shortest is 6.24 months and 13.96 months. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and immunohistochemistry reconfirmed that three genes F2, GOT2, and TRPV1 contained in one of the above combinations, are significantly dysregulated in liver cancer tissues, low expression of F2, GOT2, and TRPV1 is associated with poor prognosis in liver cancer. Overall, we discovered a few novel single genes and multi-gene combinations biomarkers that are closely related to the long-term prognosis of liver cancer, and they can be potential therapeutic targets for liver cancer.

The pandemic of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses a huge challenge all countries, since no one is well prepared for it. To be better prepared for future pandemics, we evaluated association between the internet search data with reported COVID-19 cases to verify whether it could become an early indicator for emerging epidemic. After the keyword filtering and Index composition, we found that there were close correlations between Composite Index and suspected cases for COVID-19 (r = 0.921, P < 0.05). The Search Index was applied for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model to quantify the relationship. Compared with the model based on surveillance data only, the ARIMAX model had smaller Akaike Information Criterion (AIC = 403.51) and the most accurate predictive values. Overall, the Internet search data could serve as a convenient indicator for predicting the epidemic and to monitor its trends.