This paper focuses on the role of technical analysis in signalling the timing of stock market entry and exit. Test statistics are introduced to test the performance of the most established of the trend followers, the Moving Average, and the most frequently used counter-trend indicator, the Relative Strength Index. Using Singapore data, the results indicate that the indicators can be used to generate significantly positive return. It is found that member firms of Singapore Stock Exchange (SES) tend to enjoy substantial profits by applying technical indicators. This could be the reason why most member firms do have their own trading teams that rely heavily on technical analysis.
This paper uses a new measure of real exchange rates as an indicator of international competitiveness. This new measure involves defining all prices and exchange rates on an appropriately weighted basket of currencies rather than a single currency. The measure is applied to the data for Japan, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. For comparison purposes, we calculate real exchange rates based on purchasing power parity (PPP) for these countries. To check for the relative performance of the two measures, cointegration tests are employed. The results indicate that the new measure tends to be closely related with the export growth for the sample countries, while the PPP-based measure is not. Moreover, the PPP-based real exchange rates tend to understate the measures of competitiveness for these countries. This result has important implications in terms of the levels of these countries' exchange rates as well as the well-known Balassa hypothesis.
This paper provides a new test of the efficiency of the currency option markets for four major currencies -British Pound, Euro, Swiss Frank and Japanese Yen vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. The approach is to simulate trading strategies to see if the well-accepted no arbitrage condition of put-call parity (PCP) holds in a trading environment. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and PhilipsPerron tests are used to check for the presence of unit roots in the data, followed by a formal econometric analysis. The results indicate that the most currency option prices do not violate the PCP conditions, when transaction costs are allowed for.
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