The time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS) products from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been increasingly used in recent years to improve the simulation of hydrological models by applying data assimilation techniques. In this study, for the first time, we assess the performance of the most popular data assimilation sequential techniques for integrating GRACE TWS into the WorldWide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) model. We implement and test stochastic and deterministic ensemble-based Kalman filters (EnKF), as well as Particle filters (PF) using two different resampling approaches of Multinomial Resampling and Systematic Resampling. These choices provide various opportunities for weighting observations and model simulations during the assimilation and also accounting for error distributions. Particularly, the deterministic EnKF is tested to avoid perturbing observations before assimilation (that is the case in an ordinary EnKF). Gaussian-based random updates in the EnKF approaches likely do not fully represent the statistical properties of the model simulations and TWS observations. Therefore, the fully non-Gaussian PF is also applied to estimate more realistic updates. Monthly GRACE TWS are assimilated into W3RA covering the entire Australia. To evaluate the filters performances and analyze their impact on model simulations, their estimates are validated by independent in-situ measurements. Our results indicate that all implemented filters improve the estimation of water storage simulations of W3RA. The best results are obtained using two versions of deterministic EnKF, i.e. the Square Root Analy
Droughts often evolve gradually and cover large areas, and therefore, affect many people and activities. This motivates developing techniques to integrate different satellite observations, to cover large areas, and understand spatial and temporal variability of droughts. In this study, we apply probabilistic techniques to generate satellite derived meteorological, hydrological, and hydro-meteorological drought indices for the world's 156 major river basins covering 2003-2016. The data includes Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) estimates from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, along with soil moisture, precipitation, and evapotranspiration reanalysis. Different drought characteristics of trends, occurrences, areal-extent, and frequencies corresponding to 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month timescales are extracted from these indices. Drought evolution within selected basins of Africa, America, and Asia is interpreted. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is then applied to find the relationship between global hydrometeorological droughts and satellite derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes. This relationship is then used to extract regions, where droughts and teleconnections are
Africa, a continent endowed with huge water resources that sustain its agricultural activities is increasingly coming under threat from impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods), which puts the very precious water resource into jeopardy. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and water storage over the continent, therefore, is paramount in order to inform future water management strategies. This study employs Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the higher order (fourth order cumulant) statistical independent component analysis (ICA) method to study the relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and five global climate-teleconnection indices; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over Africa for the period 2003-2014. Pearson correlation analysis is applied to extract the connections between these climate indices (CIs) and TWS, from which some known strong CI-rainfall relationships (e.g., over equatorial eastern Africa) are found. Results indicate unique linear-relationships and regions that exhibit strong linkages between CIs and TWS. Moreover, unique regions having strong CI-TWS connections that are completely different from the typical ENSO-rainfall connections over eastern and southern Africa are also identified. Furthermore, the results indicate that the first dominant independent components (IC) of the CIs are linked to NAO, and are characterized by significant reductions of TWS over southern Africa. The second dominant ICs are associated with IOD and are characterized by significant increases in TWS over equatorial eastern Africa, while the combined ENSO and MJO are apparently linked to the third ICs, which are also associated with significant increase in TWS changes over both southern Africa, as well as equatorial eastern Africa.
Assimilating Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data into land hydrological models provides a valuable opportunity to improve the models' forecasts and increases our knowledge of terrestrial water storages (TWS). The assimilation, however, may harm the consistency between hydrological water fluxes, namely precipitation, evaporation, discharge, and water storage changes. To address this issue, we propose a weak constrained ensemble Kalman filter (WCEnKF) that maintains estimated water budgets in balance with other water fluxes. Therefore, in this study, GRACE terrestrial water storages data are assimilated into the WorldWide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) hydrological model over the Earth's land areas covering 2002-2012. Multi-mission remotely sensed precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and evaporation products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), as well as ground-based water discharge measurements are applied to close the water balance equation. The proposed WCEnKF contains two update steps; first, it incorporates observations from GRACE to improve model simulations of water storages, and second, uses the additional observations of precipitation, evaporation, and water discharge to establish the water budget closure. These steps are designed to account for error information associated with the included observation sets during the assimilation process. In order to evaluate the assimilation results, in addition to monitoring the water budget closure errors, in-situ groundwater measurements over the Mississippi River Basin in the US and the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia are used. Our results indicate approximately 24% improvement in the WCEnKF groundwater estimates over both basins compared to the use of (constraint-free) EnKF. WCEnKF also further reduces imbalance errors by approximately 82.53% (on average) and at the same time increases the correlations between the assimilation solutions and the water fluxes.
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Link to publication record in Explore Bristol Research PDF-document This is the author accepted manuscript (AAM). The final published version (version of record) is available online via Elsevier at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170817306322?via%3Dihub#! . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher. University of Bristol -Explore Bristol Research General rightsThis document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T Highlights• We assimilate GRACE data to improve a hydrological model estimations over Iran• Ensemble Square-Root Filter is used for data assimilation• We estimate sub-surface water storage changes within the country• Climate and anthropogenic impacts on the water storages are investigated• Independent in-situ measurements are used to evaluate the results 1 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T AbstractGroundwater depletion, due to both unsustainable water use and a decrease in precipitation, has
International audienceThe Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission provides time-variable gravity fields that are commonly used to study regional and global terrestrial total water storage (TWS) changes. These estimates are superimposed by different error sources such as the north–south stripes in the spatial domain and spectral/spatial leakage errors, which should be reduced before use in hydrological applications. Although different filtering methods have been developed to mitigate these errors, their performances are known to vary between regions. In this study, a Kernel Fourier Integration (KeFIn) filter is proposed, which can significantly decrease leakage errors over (small) river basins through a two-step post-processing algorithm. The first step mitigates the measurement noise and the aliasing of unmodelled high-frequency mass variations, and the second step contains an efficient kernel to decrease the leakage errors. To evaluate its performance, the KeFIn filter is compared with commonly used filters based on (i) basin/gridded scaling factors and (ii) ordinary basin averaging kernels. Two test scenarios are considered that include synthetic data with properties similar to GRACE TWS estimates within 43 globally distributed river basins of various sizes and application of the filters on real GRACE data. The KeFIn filter is assessed against water flux observations through the water balance equations as well as in-situ measurements. Results of both tests indicate a remarkable improvement after applying the KeFIn filter with leakage errors reduced in 34 out of the 43 assessed river basins and an average improvement of about 23.38% in leakage error reduction compared to other filters applied in this study
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