The enhanced Fujita scale category 4 (EF4) Tuscaloosa, Alabama, tornado on 27 April 2011 produced 64 fatalities along its 130-km track. Hybrid survey/interviews were conducted with a sample of 211 Tuscaloosa-area residents to determine how the 27 April tornado might change future shelter-seeking plans. Despite a history of tornadoes in the area, only 47% of Tuscaloosa residents had shelter plans in place prior to 27 April, but 62% intend to change their shelter plans or have shelters plans for the future. Changes in shelter-seeking plans were divided into four groups and discussed according to commonalities. Logistic regression with demographic variables was then used to predict those likely to have shelter plans before 27 April and those likely to change their shelter plans in the future. Among these variables, residents over age 55 [odds ratio (OR) 8.9, 95%; confidence interval (CI): 2.167–36.352] and those having a bachelor's degree (OR 5.1, CI: 1.342–19.316) were more likely to have had shelter plans before 27 April. The most significant variable indicating a change in future shelter-seeking plans is being Hispanic/Latino (OR 5.2, CI: 1.753–15.465). These results may assist National Weather Service (NWS) personnel, broadcast meteorologists, emergency managers, and city planners with the development of targeted warning communication tactics and safety strategies for a future tornado event.
Purpose -The cone of uncertainty (COU) warning graphic has created confusion for people trying to make evacuation and safety decisions. The purpose of this research was to create several alternative tropical cyclone graphics and present them to the public and college students via face-to-face surveys and polling. Design/methodology/approach -Surveys depicting hypothetical landfall scenarios were administered in Pensacola and Jacksonville, FL. Respondents ranked five graphics in order of preference, and were encouraged to discuss their rankings. Following this initial field research, the most popular graphic of these five was compared to a graphic resembling the one used by The Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Comments were recorded for respondents favoring or disliking the Australian graphic in two separate analyses. A final graphic emphasizing post-landfall hazards was also created as a suggestion for future research and evaluated directly against the most popular graphics from field research. Findings -A graphic called the color-probability-cone was the most popular graphic in field research. There were subtle differences in graphic preference resulting from age and gender influences, with only one significant result. Comments from subsequent analyses reveal that the Australian graphic causes mixed reactions. A final analysis with a larger sample of college students revealed that the color-probability-cone was the most popular choice; however, comments reveal that many respondents who had used hurricane graphics before liked the specificity presented by the Australian graphic and the hazards graphic. Originality/value -This research represents a possible initial step in the process of establishing a tropical cyclone warning graphic that is informative, visually appealing, and effective.
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