A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992-2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May-30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading to the recent attenuation in population growth of Snow Geese.
Strong seasonality of high‐latitude environments imposes temporal constraints on forage availability and quality for keystone herbivores in terrestrial arctic ecosystems, including hyper‐abundant colonial geese. Changes in food quality due to intraspecific competition, or food availability relative to the breeding phenology of birds, may have consequences for growth and survival of young. We used long‐term data (1993–2014) from the Karrak Lake nesting colony in the Canadian central arctic to study relative roles of density and phenological mismatch (i.e. days between seasonal peaks in vegetation quality and hatching) as drivers of annual variations in gosling survival among lesser snow Anser caerulescens caerulescens and Ross's geese A. rossii. Survival of Ross's goslings was consistently higher compared to snow geese. For both species, annual gosling survival was greatest when phenological mismatch was minimal and when nesting population size was low. We also examined gosling structural size (1999–2014) in relation to density and mismatch hypotheses to understand whether changes in survival were preceded by a parallel response in growth stemming from a density‐dependent effect on annual forage conditions. After controlling for sex, age and random effects of capture group and year × species, structural size of both snow and Ross's goslings was reduced in years when phenological mismatch was greater. However, there was no significant evidence that body size of goslings was negatively related to breeding population size at the colony. Our results lend support to the notion that both broad‐scale changes in seasonality from observed and predicted warming in the arctic and, to a lesser extent, density‐dependence on brood‐rearing areas may result in changes to offspring quality or survival, with implications for population recruitment.
Climate change is resulting in warmer temperatures that are negatively impacting corals. Understanding how much individuals within a population vary in their thermal tolerance and whether this variation is heritable is important in determining whether a species can adapt to climate change. To address this, Acropora cervicornis fragments from 20 genetically distinct colonies collected from the Coral Restoration Foundation Tavernier nursery (Florida, USA) were kept at either ambient (28 ± 1°C) or elevated (32 ± 1°C) temperatures, and mortality was monitored for 26 d. Both broad-sense (H2) and narrow-sense (h2) heritability of thermal tolerance were estimated to determine the amount of genetic variation underlying survival to elevated temperature. To understand the physiological basis of thermal tolerance, tissue from both treatments was taken 12 h after the start of the experiment to investigate gene expression at the mRNA and protein level between tolerant and susceptible colonies. Results revealed that this population has considerable total genetic variation in thermal tolerance (H2 = 0.528), but low variance in relatedness among colonies prevented us from making any conclusions regarding h2. Despite high transcriptomic variability among and within colonies, 40 genes were consistently and significantly different between tolerant and susceptible colonies, and could be potential biomarkers for thermal tolerance should they be verified in a larger sample. Overall, the results suggest that this population has substantial genetic variation for traits that directly impact thermal tolerance; however, their response to projected increases in temperature will depend on more precise estimates of the additive components of this variation (h2).
The Hawaiʻi Coral Disease database (HICORDIS) houses data on colony-level coral health condition observed across the Hawaiian archipelago, providing information to conduct future analyses on coral reef health in an era of changing environmental conditions. Colonies were identified to the lowest taxonomic classification possible (species or genera), measured and assessed for visual signs of health condition. Data were recorded for 286,071 coral colonies surveyed on 1819 transects at 660 sites between 2005 and 2015. The database contains observations for 60 species from 22 genera with 21 different health conditions. The goals of the HICORDIS database are to: i) provide open access, quality controlled and validated coral health data assembled from disparate surveys conducted across Hawaiʻi; ii) facilitate appropriate crediting of data; and iii) encourage future analyses of coral reef health. In this article, we describe and provide data from the HICORDIS database. The data presented in this paper were used in the research article “Satellite SST-based Coral Disease Outbreak Predictions for the Hawaiian Archipelago” (Caldwell et al., 2016) [1].
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