We present the fifth edition of the TimeTree of Life resource (TToL5), a product of the timetree of life project that aims to synthesize published molecular timetrees and make evolutionary knowledge easily accessible to all. Using the TToL5 web portal, users can retrieve published studies and divergence times between species, the timeline of a species’ evolution beginning with the origin of life, and the timetree for a given evolutionary group at the desired taxonomic rank. TToL5 contains divergence time information on 137,306 species, 41% more than the previous edition. The TToL5 web interface is now ADA-compliant and mobile-friendly, a result of comprehensive source code refactoring. TToL5 also offers programmatic access to species divergence times and timelines through an application programming interface, which is accessible at timetree.temple.edu/api. TToL5 is publicly available at timetree.org.

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Global sequencing of hundreds of thousands of genomes of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, SARS-CoV-2, has continued to reveal new genetic variants that are the key to unraveling its early evolutionary history and tracking its global spread over time. Here, we present the heretofore cryptic mutational history and spatiotemporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 from an analysis of thousands of high-quality genomes. We report the likely most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, reconstructed through a novel application and advancement of computational methods initially developed to infer the mutational history of tumor cells in a patient. This progenitor genome differs from genomes of the first coronaviruses sampled in China by three variants, implying that none of the earliest patients represent the index case or gave rise to all the human infections. However, multiple coronavirus infections in China and the USA harbored the progenitor genetic fingerprint in January 2020 and later, suggesting that the progenitor was spreading worldwide months before and after the first reported cases of COVID-19 in China. Mutations of the progenitor and its offshoots have produced many dominant coronavirus strains, which have spread episodically over time. Fingerprinting based on common mutations reveals that the same coronavirus lineage has dominated North America for most of the pandemic in 2020. There have been multiple replacements of predominant coronavirus strains in Europe and Asia and the continued presence of multiple high-frequency strains in Asia and North America. We have developed a continually updating dashboard of global evolution and spatiotemporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 spread (http://sars2evo.datamonkey.org/).

Widespread sequencing efforts are revealing unprecedented amount of genomic variation in populations. Such information is routinely used to derive consensus reference sequences and to infer positions subject to natural selection. Here, we present a new molecular evolutionary method for estimating neutral evolutionary probabilities (EPs) of each amino acid, or nucleotide state at a genomic position without using intraspecific polymorphism data. Because EPs are derived independently of population-level information, they serve as null expectations that can be used to evaluate selective forces on alleles at both polymorphic and monomorphic positions in populations. We applied this method to coding sequences in the human genome and produced a comprehensive evolutionary variome reference for all human proteins. We found that EPs accurately predict neutral and disease-associated alleles. Through an analysis of discordance between allelic EPs and their observed population frequencies, we discovered thousands of novel candidate sites for nonneutral evolution in human proteins. Many of these were validated in a joint analysis of disease-associated variants and population data. The EP method is also directly applicable to the analysis of noncoding sequences and genomic analyses of nonmodel species.

Computational prediction of the phenotypic propensities of noncoding single nucleotide variants typically combines annotation of genomic, functional and evolutionary attributes into a single score. Here, we evaluate if the claimed excellent accuracies of these predictions translate into high rates of success in addressing questions important in biological research, such as fine mapping causal variants, distinguishing pathogenic allele(s) at a given position, and prioritizing variants for genetic risk assessment. A significant disconnect is found to exist between the statistical modelling and biological performance of predictive approaches. We discuss fundamental reasons underlying these deficiencies and suggest that future improvements of computational predictions need to address confounding of allelic, positional and regional effects as well as imbalance of the proportion of true positive variants in candidate lists.