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A novel approach to infer diversification dynamics shows that biodiversity is still expanding but at a slower rate than in the past.

With the recent resurgence of vector-borne diseases due to urbanization and development there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of vector-borne diseases in rapidly changing urban environments. For example, many empirical studies have produced the disturbing finding that diseases continue to persist in modern city centers with zero or low rates of transmission. We develop spatial models of vector-borne disease dynamics on a network of patches to examine how the movement of humans in heterogeneous environments affects transmission. We show that the movement of humans between patches is sufficient to maintain disease persistence in patches with zero transmission. We construct two classes of models using different approaches: (i) Lagrangian models that mimic human commuting behavior and (ii) Eulerian models that mimic human migration. We determine the basic reproduction number R0 for both modeling approaches. We show that for both approaches that if the disease free equilibrium is stable (R0 < 1) then it is globally stable and if the disease free equilibrium is unstable (R0 > 1) then there exists a unique positive (endemic) equilibrium that is globally stable among positive solutions. Finally, we prove in general that Lagrangian and Eulerian modeling approaches are not equivalent. The modeling approaches presented provide a framework to explore spatial vector-borne disease dynamics and control in heterogeneous environments. As an example, we consider two patches in which the disease dies out in both patches when there is no movement between them. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the disease becomes endemic in both patches when humans move between the two patches.

Coexisting plants that share pollinators can compete through interspecific pollen transfer. A long-standing idea holds that divergence in floral morphology may reduce this competition by placing pollen on different regions of the pollinator's bodies. However, surprisingly little empirical support for this idea exists. Burmeistera is a diverse neotropical genus that exhibits wide interspecific variation in the degree to which the reproductive parts are exserted outside the corolla. Coexisting Burmeistera share bats as their primary pollinators, and the degree of exsertion determines the site of pollen deposition on the bats' heads. Here we study the mechanism, process and pattern of floral character displacement for assemblages of coexisting Burmeistera. Flight cage experiments with bats and pairs of Burmeistera species demonstrate that the greater the divergence in exsertion length, the less pollen transferred interspecifically. Null model analyses of exsertion lengths for 19 species of Burmeistera across 18 sites (each containing two to four species) demonstrate that observed assemblage structure is significantly overdispersed relative to what would be expected by chance. Local evolution, rather than ecological sorting, appears to be the primary process driving this pattern of overdispersion because local adaptation of the nine widespread species accounts for a large portion of the observed pattern. Taken together, results of this study provide strong support for the idea that competition through interspecific pollen transfer can drive character displacement in plants.

A fundamental question in ecology is how many species occur within a given area. Despite the complexity and diversity of different ecosystems, there exists a surprisingly simple, approximate answer: the number of species is proportional to the size of the area raised to some exponent. The exponent often turns out to be roughly 1/4. This power law can be derived from assumptions about the relative abundances of species or from notions of self-similarity. Here we analyze the largest existing data set of location-mapped species: over one million, individually identified trees from five tropical forests on three continents. Although the power law is a reasonable, zeroth-order approximation of our data, we find consistent deviations from it on all spatial scales. Furthermore, tropical forests are not self-similar at areas ≤50 hectares. We develop an extended model of the species-area relationship, which enables us to predict large-scale species diversity from small-scale data samples more accurately than any other available method.

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Tree architecture, growth, and mortality change with increasing tree size and associated light conditions. To date, few studies have quantified how size-dependent changes in growth and mortality rates co-vary with architectural traits, and how such size-dependent changes differ across species and possible light capture strategies. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian model to quantify size-dependent changes in demographic rates and correlated demographic rates and architectural traits for 145 co-occurring Malaysian rain-forest tree species covering a wide range of tree sizes. Demographic rates were estimated using relative growth rate in stem diameter (RGR) and mortality rate as a function of stem diameter. Architectural traits examined were adult stature measured as the 95-percentile of the maximum stem diameter (upper diameter), wood density, and three tree architectural variables: tree height, foliage height, and crown width. Correlations between demographic rates and architectural traits were examined for stem diameters ranging from 1 to 47 cm. As a result, RGR and mortality varied significantly with increasing stem diameter across species. At smaller stem diameters, RGR was higher for tall trees with wide crowns, large upper diameter, and low wood density. Increased mortality was associated with low wood density at small diameters, and associated with small upper diameter and wide crowns over a wide range of stem diameters. Positive correlations between RGR and mortality were found over the whole range of stem diameters, but they were significant only at small stem diameters. Associations between architectural traits and demographic rates were strongest at small stem diameters. In the dark understory of tropical rain forests, the limiting amount of light is likely to make the interspecific difference in the effects of functional traits on demography more clear. Demographic performance is therefore tightly linked with architectural traits such as adult stature, wood density, and capacity for horizontal crown expansion. The enhancement of a demographic trade-off due to interspecific variation in functional traits in the understory helps to explain species coexistence in diverse rain forests.

Summary1. Tree architecture is thought to allow species to partition horizontal and vertical light gradients in the forest canopy. Tree architecture is closely related to light capture, carbon gain and the efficiency with which trees reach the canopy. Previous studies that investigated how light gradients drive differentiation in tree architecture have produced inconsistent results, partially because of the differences in which tree species and ontogenetic stages were studied. 2. We examined the relationship between stem diameter, tree height, foliage height, crown width and life-history strategy over a broad size range of 200 randomly selected, co-occurring tree species in a lowland rainforest in Peninsular Malaysia. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to account for both intra-and interspecific variation and describe the relationships among tree architectural variables. We analysed interspecific variation in tree architectural variables in relation to adult stature and light requirement for species regeneration as a function of tree size. 3. There was little interspecific variation in architectural variables, this is partly because of large intraspecific variation in response to canopy heterogeneity, but it also suggests architectural convergence within this community. However, interspecific analyses showed that, for large-statured species, small size classes had thinner stems with narrow and shallow crowns, whereas large-size classes had wider crowns. Light-demanding species (as indicated by high sapling mortality in shaded conditions) showed weak trends in tree architecture and were only characterized by wide crowns at intermediate sizes.4. In summary, tree architectural traits overlapped across the species community. This suggests that architectural convergence and equalizing effects occur in this diverse tropical forest and that community-wide allometric equations can be used to describe forest height and carbon storage. Light resource partitioning also occurs, indicating stabilizing effects. Interspecific architectural variation in relation to adult stature supports the theory of the trade-off between early reproduction and vegetative growth. In closed rainforests, adult stature imposes a stronger force on architectural differentiation of species than regeneration light requirements.