Stan is a probabilistic programming language for specifying statistical models. A Stan program imperatively defines a log probability function over parameters conditioned on specified data and constants. As of version 2.14.0, Stan provides full Bayesian inference for continuous-variable models through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the No-U-Turn sampler, an adaptive form of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling. Penalized maximum likelihood estimates are calculated using optimization methods such as the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno algorithm.Stan is also a platform for computing log densities and their gradients and Hessians, which can be used in alternative algorithms such as variational Bayes, expectation propagation, and marginal inference using approximate integration. To this end, Stan is set up so that the densities, gradients, and Hessians, along with intermediate quantities of the algorithm such as acceptance probabilities, are easily accessible.Stan can be called from the command line using the cmdstan package, through R using the rstan package, and through Python using the pystan package. All three interfaces support sampling and optimization-based inference with diagnostics and posterior analysis. rstan and pystan also provide access to log probabilities, gradients, Hessians, parameter transforms, and specialized plotting.

We extend variational autoencoders (vaes) to collaborative filtering for implicit feedback. This non-linear probabilistic model enables us to go beyond the limited modeling capacity of linear factor models which still largely dominate collaborative filtering research. We introduce a generative model with multinomial likelihood and use Bayesian inference for parameter estimation. Despite widespread use in language modeling and economics, the multinomial likelihood receives less attention in the recommender systems literature. We introduce a different regularization parameter for the learning objective, which proves to be crucial for achieving competitive performance. Remarkably, there is an efficient way to tune the parameter using annealing. The resulting model and learning algorithm has information-theoretic connections to maximum entropy discrimination and the information bottleneck principle. Empirically, we show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines, including two recently-proposed neural network approaches, on several real-world datasets. We also provide extended experiments comparing the multinomial likelihood with other commonly used likelihood functions in the latent factor collaborative filtering literature and show favorable results. Finally, we identify the pros and cons of employing a principled Bayesian inference approach and characterize settings where it provides the most significant improvements.

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This work presents a scalable solution to open-vocabulary visual speech recognition. To achieve this, we constructed the largest existing visual speech recognition dataset, consisting of pairs of text and video clips of faces speaking (3,886 hours of video). In tandem, we designed and trained an integrated lipreading system, consisting of a video processing pipeline that maps raw video to stable videos of lips and sequences of phonemes, a scalable deep neural network that maps the lip videos to sequences of phoneme distributions, and a production-level speech decoder that outputs sequences of words. The proposed system achieves a word error rate (WER) of 40.9% as measured on a held-out set. In comparison, professional lipreaders achieve either 86.4% or 92.9% WER on the same dataset when having access to additional types of contextual information. Our approach significantly improves on other lipreading approaches, including variants of LipNet and of Watch, Attend, and Spell (WAS), which are only capable of 89.8% and 76.8% WER respectively. * These authors contributed equally to this work.

Deep reinforcement learning has led to many recent-and groundbreaking-advancements. However, these advances have often come at the cost of both the scale and complexity of the underlying RL algorithms. Increases in complexity have in turn made it more difficult for researchers to reproduce published RL algorithms or rapidly prototype ideas. To address this, we introduce Acme, a tool to simplify the development of novel RL algorithms that is specifically designed to enable simple agent implementations that can be run at various scales of execution. Our aim is also to make the results of various RL algorithms developed in academia and industrial labs easier to reproduce and extend. To this end we are releasing baseline implementations of various algorithms, created using our framework. In this work we introduce the major design decisions behind Acme and show how these are used to construct these baselines. We also experiment with these agents at different scales of both complexity and computation-including distributed versions. Ultimately, we show that the design decisions behind Acme lead to agents that can be scaled both up and down and that, for the most part, greater levels of parallelization result in agents with equivalent performance, just faster.

Modern web clickstream data consists of long, high-dimensional sequences of multivariate events, making it difficult to analyze. Following the overarching principle that the visual interface should provide information about the dataset at multiple levels of granularity and allow users to easily navigate across these levels, we identify four levels of granularity in clickstream analysis: patterns, segments, sequences and events. We present an analytic pipeline consisting of three stages: pattern mining, pattern pruning and coordinated exploration between patterns and sequences. Based on this approach, we discuss properties of maximal sequential patterns, propose methods to reduce the number of patterns and describe design considerations for visualizing the extracted sequential patterns and the corresponding raw sequences. We demonstrate the viability of our approach through an analysis scenario and discuss the strengths and limitations of the methods based on user feedback.