Using molecular dynamics free energy simulations with TIP3P explicit solvent, we compute the hydration free energies of 504 neutral small organic molecules and compare them to experiments. We find, first, good general agreement between the simulations and the experiments, with an RMS error of 1.24 kcal/mol over the whole set (i.e., about 2 kT) and a correlation coefficient of 0.89. Second, we use an automated procedure to identify systematic errors for some classes of compounds, and suggest some improvements to the force field. We find that alkyne hydration free energies are particularly poorly predicted due to problems with a Lennard-Jones well depth, and find that an alternate choice for this well depth largely rectifies the situation. Third, we study the non-polar component of hydration free energies -that is, the part that is not due to electrostatics. While we find that repulsive and attractive components of the non-polar part both scale roughly with surface area (or volume) of the solute, the total non-polar free energy does not scale with the solute surface area or volume, because it is a small difference between large components and is dominated by the deviations from the trend. While the methods used here are not new, this is a more extensive test than previous explicit solvent studies, and the size of the test set allows identification of systematic problems with force field parameters for particular classes of compounds. We believe that the computed free energies and components will be valuable to others in future development of force fields and solvation models.

Experimental data on the transfer of small molecules between vacuum and water are relatively sparse. This makes it difficult to assess whether computational methods are truly predictive of this important quantity or merely good at explaining what has been seen. To explore this, a prospective test was performed of two different methods for estimating solvation free energies: an implicit solvent approach based on the Poisson-Boltzmann equation and an explicit solvent approach using alchemical free energy calculations. For a set of 17 small molecules, root mean square errors from experiment were between 1.3 and 2.6 kcal/mol, with the explicit solvent free energy approach yielding somewhat greater accuracy but at greater computational expense. Insights from outliers and suggestions for future prospective challenges of this kind are presented.