Designing tight binding ligands is a primary objective of small molecule drug discovery.Over the past few decades, free energy calculations have benefited from improved force fields and sampling algorithms, as well as the advent of low cost parallel computing.However, it has proven to be challenging to reliably achieve the level of accuracy that would be needed to guide lead optimization (~5X in binding affinity) for a wide range of ligands and protein targets. Not surprisingly, widespread commercial application of free energy simulations has been limited due to the lack of large-scale validation coupled with the technical challenges traditionally associated with running these types of calculations.Here, we report an approach that achieves an unprecedented level of accuracy across a broad range of target classes and ligands, with retrospective results encompassing 200 ligands and a wide variety of chemical perturbations, many of which involve significant changes in ligand chemical structures. In addition, we have applied the method in prospective drug discovery projects and found a significant improvement in the quality of the compounds synthesized that have been predicted to be potent. Compounds predicted to be potent by this approach have a substantial reduction in false positives relative to compounds synthesized based on other computational or medicinal chemistry approaches. Furthermore, the results are consistent with those obtained from our retrospective studies, demonstrating the robustness and broad range of applicability of this approach, which can be used to drive decisions in lead optimization.3

Molecular force fields have been approaching a generational transition over the past several years, moving away from well-established and well-tuned, but intrinsically limited, fixed point charge models towards more intricate and expensive polarizable models that should allow more accurate description of molecular properties. The recently introduced AMOEBA force field is a leading publicly available example of this next generation of theoretical model, but to date has only received relatively limited validation, which we address here. We show that the AMOEBA force field is in fact a significant improvement over fixed charge models for small molecule structural and thermodynamic observables in particular, although further fine-tuning is necessary to describe solvation free energies of drug-like small molecules, dynamical properties away from ambient conditions, and possible improvements in aromatic interactions. State of the art electronic structure calculations reveal generally very good agreement with AMOEBA for demanding problems such as relative conformational energies of the alanine tetrapeptide and isomers of water sulfate complexes. AMOEBA is shown to be especially successful on protein-ligand binding and computational X-ray crystallography where polarization and accurate electrostatics are critical.

Using molecular dynamics free energy simulations with TIP3P explicit solvent, we compute the hydration free energies of 504 neutral small organic molecules and compare them to experiments. We find, first, good general agreement between the simulations and the experiments, with an RMS error of 1.24 kcal/mol over the whole set (i.e., about 2 kT) and a correlation coefficient of 0.89. Second, we use an automated procedure to identify systematic errors for some classes of compounds, and suggest some improvements to the force field. We find that alkyne hydration free energies are particularly poorly predicted due to problems with a Lennard-Jones well depth, and find that an alternate choice for this well depth largely rectifies the situation. Third, we study the non-polar component of hydration free energies -that is, the part that is not due to electrostatics. While we find that repulsive and attractive components of the non-polar part both scale roughly with surface area (or volume) of the solute, the total non-polar free energy does not scale with the solute surface area or volume, because it is a small difference between large components and is dominated by the deviations from the trend. While the methods used here are not new, this is a more extensive test than previous explicit solvent studies, and the size of the test set allows identification of systematic problems with force field parameters for particular classes of compounds. We believe that the computed free energies and components will be valuable to others in future development of force fields and solvation models.