Iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet, with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2,000 gigatonnes per year. More recently, the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front. So far, however, no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance (the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice-shelf base) for the whole of Antarctica. The distribution of fresh water in the Southern Ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained. Here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in Antarctica, using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding-line flux, modelled ice-shelf snow accumulation rates and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas. We obtain a total calving flux of 1,321 ± 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of -1,454 ± 174 gigatonnes per year. This means that about half of the ice-sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front, and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking. In addition, the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves. We find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering and enhanced discharge. We suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice-shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing.

ABSTRACT. This study evaluates the impact of a recent upgrade in the physics package of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 on the simulated surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet. The modelled SMB increases, in particular over the grounded ice sheet of East Antarctica (+44 Gt a -1 ), with a small change in West Antarctica. This mainly results from an increase in precipitation, which is explained by changes in the cloud microphysics, including a new parameterization for ice cloud supersaturation, and changes in large-scale circulation patterns, which alter topographically forced precipitation. The spatial changes in SMB are evaluated using 3234 in situ SMB observations and ice-balance velocities, and the temporal variability using GRACE satellite retrievals. The in situ observations and balance velocities show a clear improvement of the spatial representation of the SMB in the interior of East Antarctica, which has become considerably wetter. No improvements are seen for West Antarctica and the coastal regions. A comparison of model SMB temporal variability with GRACE satellite retrievals shows no significant change in performance.

Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intraannually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, nonlinear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth system models in their representations of past vegetation sensitivity to changes in climate.

Abstract. This paper describes gas composition, total gas content and bubbles characteristics in winter lake ice for four adjacent lakes in a discontinuous permafrost area. Our gas mixing ratios for O 2 , N 2 , CO 2 , and CH 4 suggest that gas exchange occurs between the bubbles and the water before entrapment in the ice. Comparison between lakes enabled us to identify 2 major "bubbling events" shown to be related to a regional drop of atmospheric pressure. Further comparison demonstrates that winter lake gas content is strongly dependent on hydrological connections: according to their closed/open status with regards to water exchange, lakes build up more or less greenhouse gases (GHG) in their water and ice cover during the winter, and release it during spring melt. These discrepancies between lakes need to be taken into account when establishing a budget for permafrost regions. Our analysis allows us to present a new classification of bubbles, according to their gas properties. Our methane emission budgets (from 6.52 10 −5 to 12.7 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 at 4 different lakes) for the three months of winter ice cover is complementary to other budget estimates, as our approach encompasses inter-and intra-lake variability.Most available studies on boreal lakes have focused on quantifying GHG emissions from sediment by means of various systems collecting gases at the lake surface, and this mainly during the summer "open water" period. Only few of these have looked at the gas enclosed in the winter ice-cover itself. Our approach enables us to integrate, for the first time, the history of winter gas emission for this type of lakes.

.[1] Ice-penetrating radar profiles across the grounding line of a small ice-rise promontory located within the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in the Dronning Maud Land sector of East Antarctica show downward dipping englacial radar-detected reflectors. Model results indicate that this reflector pattern is best fit by including basal melting of at least 15 cm a À1. This rate of melting is low compared with rates observed on larger ice shelves in both West and East Antarctica. Ice cores extracted from a rift system close to the ice-rise promontory show several meters of marine ice accreted beneath the shelf. These observations of low rates of basal melting, and limited distribution of accreted marine ice suggest that either Antarctic surface water may reach the ice shelf base or that circulation beneath the shelf is likely dominated by the production of high salinity shelf water rather than the incursion of circumpolar deep water, implying a weak sub-shelf circulation system here. Many of the ice shelves located along the coast of Dronning Maud Land are, like Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, characterized by frequent ice rises and promontories. Therefore, it is highly likely that these are also of shallow bathymetry and are subject to similarly weak side-shelf basal melting and refreezing.

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