Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intraannually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, nonlinear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth system models in their representations of past vegetation sensitivity to changes in climate.

Abstract. Satellite Earth observation has led to the creation of global climate data records of many important environmental and climatic variables. These come in the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Data of this kind provide new means to further unravel the influence of climate on vegetation dynamics. However, as advocated in this article, commonly used statistical methods are often too simplistic to represent complex climate-vegetation relationships due to linearity assumptions. Therefore, as an extension of linear Granger-causality analysis, we present a novel non-linear framework consisting of several components, such as data collection from various databases, time series decomposition techniques, feature construction methods, and predictive modelling by means of random forests. Experimental results on global data sets indicate that, with this framework, it is possible to detect non-linear patterns that are much less visible with traditional Granger-causality methods. In addition, we discuss extensive experimental results that highlight the importance of considering non-linear aspects of climate-vegetation dynamics.

Abstract. Satellite Earth observation has led to the creation of global climate data records of many important environmental and climatic variables. These take the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Data of this kind provide new means to unravel the influence of climate on vegetation dynamics. However, as advocated in this article, existing statistical methods are often too simplistic to represent complex climate–vegetation relationships due to the assumption of linearity of these relationships. Therefore, as an extension of linear Granger causality analysis, we present a novel non-linear framework consisting of several components, such as data collection from various databases, time series decomposition techniques, feature construction methods and predictive modelling by means of random forests. Experimental results on global data sets indicate that with this framework it is possible to detect non-linear patterns that are much less visible with traditional Granger causality methods. In addition, we also discuss extensive experimental results that highlight the importance of considering the non-linear aspect of climate–vegetation dynamics.

In diagnostics of infectious diseases, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) can be applied for the identification of pathogenic microorganisms. However, to achieve a trustworthy identification from MALDI-TOF MS data, a significant amount of biomass should be considered. The bacterial load that potentially occurs in a sample is therefore routinely amplified by culturing, which is a time-consuming procedure. In this paper, we show that culturing can be avoided by conducting MALDI-TOF MS on individual bacterial cells. This results in a more rapid identification of species with an acceptable accuracy. We propose a deep learning architecture to analyze the data and compare its performance with traditional supervised machine learning algorithms. We illustrate our workflow on a large data set that contains bacterial species related to urinary tract infections. Overall we obtain accuracies up to 85% in discriminating five different species.

Abstract. The most widely used global land cover and climate classifications are based on vegetation characteristics and/or climatic conditions derived from observational data. However, these classification schemes do not directly stem from the characteristic interaction between the local climate and the biotic environment. In this work, we model the dynamic interplay between vegetation and local climate in order to delineate ecoregions that share a coherent response to hydro-climate variability. Our novel framework is based on a multitask learning approach that discovers the spatial relationships among different locations by learning a low-dimensional representation of predictive structures. This low-dimensional representation is combined with a clustering algorithm that yields a classification of biomes with coherent behaviour. Experimental results using global observation-based datasets indicate that, without the need to prescribe any land cover information, the identified regions of coherent climate–vegetation interactions agree well with the expectations derived from traditional global land cover maps. The resulting global hydro-climatic biomes can be used to analyse the anomalous behaviour of specific ecosystems in response to climate extremes and to benchmark climate–vegetation interactions in Earth system models.