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AbstractWe conduct detailed analysis of the Polish Household Budget Survey data for the years 2006-2011 with the focus on its representativeness from the point of view of microsimulation analysis. We find important discrepancies between the data weighted with baseline grossing-up weights and official statistics from other sources. A number of re-weighting exercises is examined from the point of view of the accuracy of microsimulation results and we show that using a combination of demographic calibration targets with several economic status variables or tax identifiers from the microsimulation model substantially improves the correspondence of model results and administrative data. While demographic re-weighting is neutral from the point of view of income distribution, calibrating the grossing-up weights to adjust for economic status and tax identifiers significantly increases income inequality. We argue that although data reweighting can substantially improve the accuracy of microsimulation it should be used with caution.
Measuring social deprivation and social exclusion ▸ While material deprivation decreases with age, social deprivation affects those aged 65+ much more often compared to those aged 50-64 ▸ Estonia, Israel and Italy are countries with highest proportion of the 50+ suffering high levels of both material and social deprivation ▸ A two-dimensional measure of social exclusion shows strong correlation with poor health and with hearing and eyesight impairments. It is lower among the employed and those with income from retirement pensions
Objective: We use the panel structure of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data for 14 countries to examine the implications of material and social deprivation for health deterioration in old age and mortality. Method: To minimize the potential endogeneity bias, we examine the relationship between deprivation and changes in health rather than levels of health. We include a substantial set of fixed “initial conditions,” and extend the controls with health measures, as observed at the initial period. Results: The results of the probit regression suggest a strong and statistically significant relationship between measures of material and social deprivation and changes in physical and mental health. Mortality is only affected by the social dimension of deprivation. Discussion: Treating material and social deprivation separately rather than as a single social exclusion indicator allows for more specific identification of the role of the two dimensions, which might be important for policy decisions.
We use the microsimulation approach and household budget survey data from 2015 to estimate the short-term impact of the “Family 500+” programme on household incomes, poverty and inequality. The results suggest that the programme will have the strongest impact on the incomes of households at the lower end of income distribution. Extreme consumption poverty in the whole population is reduced in the range from 35 to 37%, while child poverty in the range from 75 to 100%, depending on the choice of equivalence scale and assumptions about changes in household expenditures. The paper shows also that the programme will reduce the Gini index of income inequality in Poland by a few percentage points. The programme can lead to a lower risk of extreme poverty for households with children as compared to small households (e.g. single-person households). Analysis based on certain equivalence scales suggests that even before the implementation of the “Family 500+” programme extreme poverty among households with children was comparable or lower than among one-person or childless households. The progressive impact of “Family 500+” programme on income distribution in Poland may be reduced in the longer run if labour market activity of low income households will be affected negatively.
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