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Product lifespan estimates are important information for understanding progress toward sustainable consumption and estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products. Publications reported actual lifespan of products; however, quantitative data are still limited for many countries and years. This study presents regional and longitudinal estimation of lifespan distribution of consumer durables, taking passenger cars as an example, and proposes a simplified method for estimating product lifespan distribution. We estimated lifespan distribution parameters for 17 countries based on the age profile of in-use cars. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the shape parameter of the lifespan distribution can be replaced by a constant value for all the countries and years. This enabled a simplified estimation that does not require detailed data on the age profile. Applying the simplified method, we estimated the trend in average lifespans of passenger cars from 2000 to 2009 for 20 countries. Average lifespan differed greatly between countries (9-23 years) and was increasing in many countries. This suggests consumer behavior differs greatly among countries and has changed over time, even in developed countries. The results suggest that inappropriate assumptions of average lifespan may cause significant inaccuracy in estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products.

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Lifespan is an essential parameter for the accounting and analysis of material stocks and flows, one of the main research topics in industrial ecology. Lifespan is also important as a parameter that portrays the current and historical situation of industrial metabolism, which is an area of interest to industrial ecologists.In the present article, the available information from various reports on product lifespan was reviewed. Although we found a large number of data for many durables, the definition of lifespan in published articles varied, which limited our ability to compare reported values. We therefore first defined lifespan and then compared the international and historical data.We compiled more than 1,300 data sets from various sources and identified some differences among the types of goods and among regions. With the reviewed data noted in this article, we established a database, named LiVES (Lifespan Database for Vehicles, Equipment, and Structures), and will disclose it on the Internet to share the information.

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