A Prediction Method for the Number of Waste Durable Goods

Tasaki, Tomohiro; Oguchi, Masahiro; Kameya, Takashi; Urano, Kohei

doi:10.3985/jswme.12.49

Cited by 59 publications

(44 citation statements)

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“…( 1 ) 18) , and variance in log normal distribution for``Construction（Japan)'' is 0.401 20) .  2 Assumed as the same of``Fabricated metal (Japan)''.…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessment of Recycling Potential of Aluminum in Japan, the United States, Europe and China

博樹¹,

市朗²,

泰也³

et al. 2008

J. Japan Inst. Metals

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Global aluminum consumption has exhibited significant growth in recent years, due to its useful properties. As this will result in a large amount of aluminum accumulation as urban mines, the exploitation of these urban stocks will be an important issue in the future.To examine the recycling potential of urban stocks, a dynamic material flow analysis on aluminum was conducted focusing on Japan, the United States, Europe and China. The concentrations of the alloying elements were also investigated, since carryover of alloying elements during recycling results in off specification secondary metals and alloys. The recycling of aluminum scrap was optimized from the results of dynamic material flow analysis using multi material pinch analysis.It was estimated that Japan, the United States, Europe and China have the potential to reduce their primary aluminum consumption to 60, 65, 30 and 85 of their present levels, respectively. In 2050, it is estimated that 11400 kt of primary aluminum will be required among the four countries, while 12400 kt of obsolete scrap will not be able to be recycled due to high concentrations of alloying elements.

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“…( 1 ) 18) , and variance in log normal distribution for``Construction（Japan)'' is 0.401 20) .  2 Assumed as the same of``Fabricated metal (Japan)''.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Recycling Potential of Aluminum in Japan, the United States, Europe and China

博樹¹,

市朗²,

泰也³

et al. 2008

J. Japan Inst. Metals

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“…The present study focuses on three gasoline vehicle types (ordinary passenger vehicles, small passenger vehicles, and light passenger vehicles) and the Weibull distributions for the vehicle types were specified by using statistics for the passenger vehicle purchases and stocks from the Japanese Automobile Inspection and Registration Association (AIRA) (see Tasaki et al, 2001, for more details). Using the statistics of new registration (purchase) of vehicle type k defined as c k t or c k t2y and vehicle stock defined as K t21,k or K tk , the number of each type of vehicles disposed of during year t (i.e.…”

Section: Passenger Vehicle Purchase Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The shape parameter was set to 4.0 for all the passenger vehicles in the present study (see Tasaki et al, 2001, for a previous study). We consequently assume that the (t 2 y)-vintage passenger vehicles disposed of in the time period t follow the average lifetime in the time period.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Economic and Environmental Consequences of Automobile Lifetime Extension and Fuel Economy Improvement: Japan's Case

Kagawa¹,

Kudoh²,

Nansai³

et al. 2008

Economic Systems Research

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The present paper develops a structural decomposition analysis with cumulative product lifetime distributions to estimate the effects of both product lifetime shifts and energy efficiency changes on the embodied energy consumptions. The empirical analysis focuses on automobile use (ordinary passenger vehicles, small passenger vehicles, and light passenger vehicles) in Japan during the period 1990-2000. It reveals that the lifetime extension of existing old vehicles during the study period was more beneficial to the environment than purchasing new passenger vehicles with a relatively high fuel economy, because the lifetime extension empirically contributed to reducing the embodied energy consumption at the production and end-use stages. We also found that the energy-saving impact of a one-year lifetime extension was approximately 1.3 times larger than that of the most significant technological improvement in the electric power generation sector.

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“…12) Other parameters of product lifetime were based on past research on consumer durables (Tasaki et al). 6) Beverage cans were assumed to be discarded in the production year because their mean lifetime was less than one year. For the ''Automobile'' category, a lifetime distribution was defined from the 11,16) Window frames were the main product in the ''Construction'' category, therefore the lifetime of products in this category was represented by that of dwellings.…”

Section: Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis On Scrapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kleijn et al 1) and Van der Voet et al 2) developed a dynamic approach for estimating the material outflow (as end-of-life products) from in-use stock. Using similar approaches, previous research has estimated the amount of discarded material likely to be recovered in the future, in particular focusing on steel (Kakudate et al, Daigo et al), 3,4) construction minerals (Hashimoto et al), 5) consumer durables (Tasaki et al) 6) and TVs (Yamada et al). 7) This paper focuses on the recyclability of aluminum, which is one of the most widely used metals in Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Substance Flow Analysis of Aluminum and Its Alloying Elements

et al. 2007

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Aluminum demand in Japan has grown significantly during the last few decades. For most uses, small amounts of other metals are added to the primary aluminum to make harder alloys, which are classified by the nature and concentrations of their alloying elements. Aluminum scraps from end-of-life products, which are used as raw materials for secondary aluminum, are often mixtures of several alloys. Therefore, not only the amount of scrap but also the concentrations of their alloying elements must be taken into account when assessing the maximum recycle rate of aluminum scraps.This paper reports a dynamic substance flow analysis of aluminum and its alloying elements in Japan, focusing on the alloying elements Si, Fe, Cu and Mn. We devised eight categories of aluminum end uses and 16 types of aluminum alloys. The amount of each alloy in each end-use category was estimated from statistical data. We then estimated future quantities of discarded aluminum in each of the eight categories using the population balance model. At the same time, we calculated the concentrations of the alloying elements in each of the end uses.It was estimated that the amount of aluminum recovered in Japan would be about 1800 kt in 2050, which is 2.12 times that recovered in 1990. Calculated concentrations of alloying elements in aluminum scraps showed good correlation with those of the measured data.

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A Prediction Method for the Number of Waste Durable Goods

Cited by 59 publications

References 0 publications

Assessment of Recycling Potential of Aluminum in Japan, the United States, Europe and China

Assessment of Recycling Potential of Aluminum in Japan, the United States, Europe and China

The Economic and Environmental Consequences of Automobile Lifetime Extension and Fuel Economy Improvement: Japan's Case

Dynamic Substance Flow Analysis of Aluminum and Its Alloying Elements

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