Water can be redistributed through, in physical terms, water transfer projects and virtually, embodied water for the production of traded products. Here, we explore whether such water redistributions can help mitigate water stress in China. This study, for the first time to our knowledge, both compiles a full inventory for physical water transfers at a provincial level and maps virtual water flows between Chinese provinces in 2007 and 2030. Our results show that, at the national level, physical water flows because of the major water transfer projects amounted to 4.5% of national water supply, whereas virtual water flows accounted for 35% (varies between 11% and 65% at the provincial level) in 2007. Furthermore, our analysis shows that both physical and virtual water flows do not play a major role in mitigating water stress in the water-receiving regions but exacerbate water stress for the water-exporting regions of China. Future water stress in the main water-exporting provinces is likely to increase further based on our analysis of the historical trajectory of the major governing socioeconomic and technical factors and the full implementation of policy initiatives relating to water use and economic development. Improving water use efficiency is key to mitigating water stress, but the efficiency gains will be largely offset by the water demand increase caused by continued economic development. We conclude that much greater attention needs to be paid to water demand management rather than the current focus on supply-oriented management.water transfer | virtual water | regional water stress | multiregional input-output analysis

Summary The flow regime of a river is fundamental in determining its ecological characteristics. Impoundment of rivers has been documented to severely impact the natural flow regime, resulting in abiotic and biotic changes in downstream ecosystems. Contemporary water legislation is driving increasing concern among environmentalists and water resource managers with respect to how these impacts can be mitigated. This has stimulated research aimed at assessing the relationship between reservoir outflow modification (i.e. managed environmental flows) and downstream ecosystem responses. We carried out a critical review and synthesis of the global literature concerning post‐impoundment reservoir outflow modification and associated downstream biotic and abiotic responses. Seventy‐six studies published between 1981 and 2012 were analysed. In contrast to previous studies of this subject, we systematically assessed the methodological quality of research to identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches. We also undertook a novel quantification of ecosystem responses to flow modification, thus enabling identification of priorities for future research. We identified that: (i) there was a research bias towards North American and Western European studies; (ii) the majority of studies reported changes in flow magnitude (e.g. artificial floods) and primarily focused on traditionally monitored ecological groups (e.g. fish); (iii) relationships between flow, biota (e.g. macroinvertebrates) and water quality (e.g. electrical conductivity and suspended solids concentration) were evident, demonstrating the potential for managed environmental flows to manipulate river ecosystems; (iv) site‐specific factors (e.g. location, climate) are likely to be important as some ecosystem responses were inconsistent between studies (e.g. fish movement in response to increases in flow magnitude); and (v) quality of study design, methodological and analytical techniques varied, and these factors may have contributed to the reported variability of ecosystem response. To advance scientific understanding and guide future management of regulated flow regimes, we highlight a pressing need for: (i) diversification of study locations as well as flow modification and ecosystem response types assessed; (ii) a focus on understanding flow–ecosystem response relationships at regional scales; (iii) further quantitative studies to enable robust statistical analyses in future meta‐analyses; and (iv) robust monitoring of flow experiments and the use of contemporary statistical techniques to extract maximum knowledge from ecological response data.

19China is a country with significant but unevenly distributed water resources. The water 20 stressed north stays in contrast to the water abundant and polluted south defines China's 21 current water environment. In this paper we use the latest datasets and adopt structural 22 decomposition analysis for the years 1992 to 2007 to investigate the driving forces behind the 23 emerging water crisis in China. We employ four water indicators in China, i.e. freshwater 24 consumption, discharge of COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) in effluent water, cumulative 25 COD and dilution water requirements for cumulative pollution, to investigate the driving 26 forces behind the emerging crisis. The paper finds water intensity improvements can 27 effectively offset annual freshwater consumption and COD discharge driven by per capita 28 GDP growth, but that it had failed to eliminate cumulative pollution in water bodies.

Much attention has been paid to burden shifting of CO2 emissions from developed regions to developing regions through trade. However, less discussed is that trade also acts as a mechanism enabling wealthy consumers to shift water quantity and quality stress to their trading partners. In this study, we investigate how Shanghai, the largest megacity in China, draws water resources from all over China and outsources its pollution through virtual quantity and quality water flows associated with trade. The results show that Shanghai's consumption of goods and services in 2007 led to 11.6 billion m3 of freshwater consumption, 796 thousand tons of COD, and 16.2 thousand tons of NH3‐N in discharged wastewater. Of this, 79% of freshwater consumption, 82.9% of COD and 82.5% of NH3‐N occurred in other Chinese Provinces which provide goods and services to Shanghai. Thirteen Provinces with severe and extreme water quantity stress accounted for 60% of net virtual water import to Shanghai, while 19 Provinces experiencing water quality stress endured 79% of net COD outsourcing and 75.5% of net NH3‐N outsourcing from Shanghai. In accordance with the three “redlines” recently put forward by the Chinese central government to control water pollution and cap total water use in all provinces, we suggest that Shanghai should share its responsibility for reducing water quantity and quality stress in its trading partners through taking measures at provincial, industrial, and consumer levels. In the meantime, Shanghai needs to enhance demand side management by promoting low water intensity consumption.

There is a need to investigate processes that enable sludge re-use while enhancing sewage treatment efficiency. Mechanically disintegrated thickened surplus activated sludge (SAS) and fermented primary sludge were compared for their capacity to produce a carbon source suitable for BNR by completing nutrient removal predictive tests. Mechanically disintegration of SAS using a deflaker enhanced volatile fatty acids (VFAs) content from 92 to 374 mg l(-1) (4.1-fold increase). In comparison, primary sludge fermentation increased the VFAs content from 3.5 g l(-1) to a final concentration of 8.7 g l(-1) (2.5-fold increase). The carbon source obtained from disintegration and fermentation treatments improved phosphate (PO(4)-P) release and denitrification by up to 0.04 mg NO(3)-Ng(-1)VSS min(-1) and 0.031 mg PO(4)-Pg(-1)VSS min(-1), respectively, in comparison to acetate (0.023 mg NO(3)-Ng(-1)VSS min(-1)and 0.010 mg PO(4)-Pg(-1)VSS min(-1)). Overall, both types of sludge were suitable for BNR but disintegrated SAS displayed lower carbon to nutrient ratios of 8 for SCOD:PO(4)-P and 9 for SCOD:NO(3)-N. On the other hand, SAS increased the concentration of PO(4)-P in the settled sewage by a further 0.97 g PO(4)-P kg(-1)SCOD indicating its potential negative impact towards nutrient recycling in the BNR process.

Trade of commodities can lead to virtual water flows between trading partners. When commodities flow from regions of high water productivity to regions of low water productivity, the trade has the potential to generate water saving. However, this accounting of water saving does not account for the water scarcity status in different regions. It could be that the water saving generated from this trade occurs at the expense of the intensified water scarcity in the exporting region, and exerts limited effect on water stress alleviation in importing regions. In this paper, we propose an approach to measure the scarce water saving associated with virtual water trade (measuring in water withdrawal/use). The scarce water is quantified by multiplying the water use in production with the water stress index (WSI). We assessed the scarce water saving/loss through interprovincial trade within China using a multi-region input-output table from 2010. The results show that interprovincial trade resulted in 14.2 km 3 of water loss without considering water stress, but only 0.4 km 3 scarce water loss using the scarce water concept. Among the 435 total connections of virtual water flows, 254 connections contributed to 20.2 km 3 of scarce water saving. Most of these connections are virtual water flows from provinces with lower WSI to that with higher WSI. Conversely, 175 connections contributed to 20.6 km 3 of scarce water loss. The virtual water flow connections between Xinjiang and other provinces stood out as the biggest contributors, accounting for 66% of total scarce water loss. The results show the importance of assessing water savings generated from trade with consideration of both water scarcity status and water productivity across regions. Identifying key connections of scarce water saving is useful in guiding interregional economic restructuring towards water stress alleviation, a major goal of China's sustainable development strategy.

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This is a repository copy of Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water quality model in Lake Taihu, China.