Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water quality model in Lake Taihu, China

Jiang, Long; Li, Yiping; Zhao, Xu; Tillotson, Martin R.; Wang, Wencai; Zhang, Shuangshuang; Sarpong, Linda; Asmaa, Qhtan; Pan, Baozhu

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.02.014

Cited by 59 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…However, the mean percent error (13.4%) and mean absolute percent error (58.2%) indicated that further improvements, for example, by reducing the uncertainty of the model inputs and/or by improving the parameter calibration, should be made. Jiang et al [57] simulated the Chl- a concentrations in different subareas of Lake Taihu using a 40-parameter environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) model and found that the fitted Chl- a concentrations were basically consistent with field observations. The analyses of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the simulations imply that the observed Chl- a concentrations, water temperature, light, and simulation time are primary factors influencing the EFDC simulation accuracy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Variations in the Distribution of Chl-a and Simulation Using a Multiple Regression Model

Deng

Chen²,

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Chlorophyll a (Chl-a) is an important indicator of algal biomass in aquatic ecosystems. In this study, monthly monitoring data for Chl-a concentration were collected between 2005 and 2015 at four stations in Meiliang Bay, a eutrophic bay in Lake Taihu, China. The spatiotemporal distribution of Chl-a in the bay was investigated, and a statistical model to relate the Chl-a concentration to key driving variables was also developed. The monthly Chl-a concentration in Meiliang Bay changed from 2.6 to 330.0 μg/L, and the monthly mean Chl-a concentration over 11 years was found to be higher at sampling site 1, the northernmost site near Liangxihe River, than at the three other sampling sites. The annual mean Chl-a concentration fluctuated greatly over time and exhibited an upward trend at all sites except sampling site 3 in the middle of Meiliang Bay. The Chl-a concentration was positively correlated with total phosphorus (TP; r = 0.57, p < 0.01), dissolved organic matter (DOM; r = 0.73, p < 0.01), pH (r = 0.44, p < 0.01), and water temperature (WT; r = 0.37, p < 0.01), and negatively correlated with nitrate (NO3−-N; r = −0.28, p < 0.01), dissolved oxygen (DO; r = −0.12, p < 0.01), and Secchi depth (ln(SD); r = −0.11, p < 0.05). A multiple linear regression model integrating the interactive effects of TP, DOM, WT, and pH on Chl-a concentrations was established (R = 0.80, F = 230.7, p < 0.01) and was found to adequately simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Chl-a concentrations in other regions of Lake Taihu. This model provides lake managers with an alternative for the control of eutrophication and the suppression of aggregations of phytoplankton biomass at the water surface.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Variations in the Distribution of Chl-a and Simulation Using a Multiple Regression Model

Deng

Chen²,

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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“…In addition, a possible reason for the insensitive responses to climatic‐driven hydrologic variability is that the temperature rate coefficient for algal growth is only related to water temperature with a functional curve in the model (Cole & Wells, ). However, water temperature gradients changed with climatic‐driven hydrologic conditions and inflow temperatures, and this coefficient might be improved if it varies according to the seasonal temperatures and is flow dependent on multivariable gradient curves (Jiang et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Well Does the Mechanistic Water Quality Model CE‐QUAL‐W2 Represent Biogeochemical Responses to Climatic and Hydrologic Forcing?

Zhang

Brett

Brattebo

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Mechanistic water quality models are applied globally for water quality management in rivers and lakes. However, it is unclear how well these models represent the response of lakes to changes in climate and hydrologic conditions. To address this question, we conducted a series of climate and hydrologic sensitivity analyses using a parameterized water quality model, CE‐QUAL‐W2, for the Spokane River and Lake Spokane system. Two experimental tests with climate and flow forcing showed that the model predictions were rather insensitive to climatic‐driven hydrologic changes and a wide range of hydrologic conditions (1st to 99th percentile flows) for two different wastewater treatment plant discharge scenarios. The model realistically represented some aspects of Lake Spokane's observed responses to climatic and hydrologic variability, for example, the water residence time and some water quality trends. However, the model overestimated the reservoir total phosphorus (TPR) concentration by ~37% and the chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration by ~31% and underestimated the minimum volume‐weighted hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DOMIN) concentration by ~26% for a wide range of flows compared to the observed data. In contrast to the model's water quality insensitivity, the modeled temperature was more sensitive to flow than was actually observed in Lake Spokane. This study provides guidance for improving the response of one of the most important mechanistic water quality models to climatic and hydrologic forcing and should help modelers and decision‐makers to develop a rigorous assessment of climate and flow sensitivity to improve the margin of safety when setting total maximum daily load targets.

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“…At a low pH value, dissolved oxygen content will decrease, which can directly affect the life of aquatic biota. At high pH values, the solubility of metal compounds decreases, followed by the development of decomposition rate, which has an impact on the decline of dissolved oxygen value [21].…”

Section: Sediment Sampling and In Situ Water Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Study of Phosphate Release from Artificial Sediment into Water Body Using Diffusive Gradient in Thin Film (DGT) Device in Oxic Condition

et al. 2020

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The phenomenon of phosphate release in sediments into water bodies under oxic environment has been investigated using the Diffusive Gradient in Thin Film (DGT) technique. This research consists of several stages: polymer synthesis and DGT probe assembly, sediment sampling, DGT deployment in oxic conditions, and phosphate analysis from DGT adsorption results. Acrylamide polymer was successfully synthesized with a composition of 15% acrylamide; N-N'-methylenebisacrylamide 0.1% and ferrihydrite as binding gels. DGT probes were assembled by placing a 16 x 3.2 cm polyacrylamide gel, binding gels and filter membranes on the DGT probes. The sediment sample was taken from the Bogor Botanical Gardens at the coordinates 6°36'00.6" S; 106°47'51.0" E. The DGT probe was placed in sediment samples for 1, 3 and 7 days in oxic conditions. After the prescribed time, the binding gel was removed and cut every 1 cm depth, then eluted using 0.25 M H2SO4 and the phosphate concentration was measured using spectrophotometry method. The results showed that the phosphate concentration tends to be higher with the increasing incubation time and depth. Maximum CDGT phosphate released on day 1, day 3 and day 7 were 1.00 µg/L at a depth of 14 cm, 6.61 µg/L at a depth of 14 cm, and 20.92 µg/L at a depth of 11 cm, respectively. This ensures that the phosphate in water bodies comes from biogeochemical processes that occur in sediments and is successfully measured through DGT techniques.

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Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water quality model in Lake Taihu, China

Abstract: This is a repository copy of Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water quality model in Lake Taihu, China.

Cited by 59 publications

References 69 publications

Variations in the Distribution of Chl-a and Simulation Using a Multiple Regression Model

Variations in the Distribution of Chl-a and Simulation Using a Multiple Regression Model

How Well Does the Mechanistic Water Quality Model CE‐QUAL‐W2 Represent Biogeochemical Responses to Climatic and Hydrologic Forcing?

The Study of Phosphate Release from Artificial Sediment into Water Body Using Diffusive Gradient in Thin Film (DGT) Device in Oxic Condition

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