Abstract. Isca is a framework for the idealized modelling of the global circulation of planetary atmospheres at varying levels of complexity and realism.

Tropospheric features preceding sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) are identified using a large compendium of events obtained from a chemistry–climate model. In agreement with recent observational studies, it is found that approximately one-third of SSWs are preceded by extreme episodes of wave activity in the lower troposphere. The relationship becomes stronger in the lower stratosphere, where ~60% of SSWs are preceded by extreme wave activity at 100 hPa. Additional analysis characterizes events that do or do not appear to subsequently impact the troposphere, referred to as downward and non-downward propagating SSWs, respectively. On average, tropospheric wave activity is larger preceding downward-propagating SSWs compared to non-downward propagating events, and associated in particular with a doubly strengthened Siberian high. Of the SSWs that were preceded by extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity, ~2/3 propagated down to the troposphere, and hence the presence of extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity can only be used probabilistically to predict a slight increase or decrease at the onset, of the likelihood of tropospheric impacts to follow. However, a large number of downward and non-downward propagating SSWs must be considered (>35), before the difference becomes statistically significant. The precursors are also robust upon comparison with composites consisting of randomly selected tropospheric northern annular mode (NAM) events. The downward influence and precursors to split and displacement events are also examined. It is found that anomalous upward wave-1 fluxes precede both cases. Splits exhibit a near instantaneous, barotropic response in the stratosphere and troposphere, while displacements have a stronger long-term influence.

The processes regulating the climatology and annual cycle of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and cold point are not fully understood. Three main drivers have been identified: planetary-scale equatorial waves excited by tropical convection, planetary-scale extratropical waves associated with the deep Brewer–Dobson circulation, and synoptic-scale waves associated with the midlatitude storm tracks. In both observations and comprehensive atmospheric models, all three coexist, making it difficult to separate their contributions. Here, a new intermediate-complexity atmospheric model is developed. Simple modification of the model’s lower boundary allows detailed study of the three processes key to the TTL, both in isolation and together. The model shows that tropical planetary waves are most critical for regulating the mean TTL, setting the depth and temperature of the cold point. The annual cycle of the TTL, which is coldest (warmest) in boreal winter (summer), however, depends critically on the strong annual variation in baroclinicity of the Northern Hemisphere relative to that of the Southern Hemisphere. Planetary-scale waves excited from either the tropics or extratropics then double the impact of baroclinicity on the TTL annual cycle. The remarkably generic response of TTL temperatures over a range of configurations suggests that the details of the wave forcing are unimportant, provided there is sufficient variation in the upward extent of westerly winds over the annual cycle. Westerly winds enable the propagation of stationary Rossby waves, and weakening of the subtropical jet in boreal summer inhibits their propagation into the lower stratosphere, warming the TTL.

An intermediate-complexity moist general circulation model is used to investigate the forcing of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere boreal winter by land–sea contrast, horizontal heat fluxes in the ocean, and topography. The additivity of the response to these building blocks is investigated. In the Pacific sector, the stationary wave pattern is not simply the linear additive sum of the response to each forcing. In fact, over the northeast Pacific and western North America, the sum of the responses to each forcing is actually opposite to that when all three are imposed simultaneously due to nonlinear interactions among the forcings. The source of the nonlinearity is diagnosed using the zonally anomalous steady-state thermodynamic balance, and it is shown that the background-state temperature field set up by each forcing dictates the stationary wave response to the other forcings. As all three forcings considered here strongly impact the temperature field and its zonal gradients, the nonlinearity and nonadditivity in our experiments can be explained, but only in a diagnostic sense. This nonadditivity extends up to the stratosphere, and also to surface temperature, where the sum of the responses to each forcing differs from the response if all forcings are included simultaneously. Only over western Eurasia is additivity a reasonable (though not perfect) assumption; in this sector land–sea contrast is most important over Europe, while topography is most important over western Asia. In other regions, where nonadditivity is pronounced, the question of which forcing is most important is ill-posed.

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked with anomalously cold temperatures at the surface in the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere as climatological westerly winds in the stratosphere tend to weaken and turn easterly. However, previous studies have largely relied on reanalyses and model simulations to infer the role of SSWs on surface climate and SSW relationships with extremes have not been fully analyzed. Here, we use observed daily gridded temperature and precipitation data over Europe to comprehensively examine the response of climate extremes to the occurrence of SSWs. We show that for much of Scandinavia, winters with SSWs are on average at least 1 °C cooler, but the coldest day and night of winter is on average at least 2 °C colder than in non‐SSW winters. Anomalously high pressure over Scandinavia reduces precipitation on the northern Atlantic coast but increases overall rainfall and the number of wet days in southern Europe. In the 60 days after SSWs, cold extremes are more intense over Scandinavia with anomalously high pressure and drier conditions prevailing. Over southern Europe there is a tendency toward lower pressure, increased precipitation and more wet days. The surface response in cold temperature extremes over northwest Europe to the 2018 SSW was stronger than observed for any SSW during 1979–2016. Our analysis shows that SSWs have an effect not only on mean climate but also extremes over much of Europe. Only with carefully designed analyses are the relationships between SSWs and climate means and extremes detectable above synoptic‐scale variability.

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface westerlies fundamentally control regional patterns of air temperature, storm tracks, and precipitation while also regulating ocean circulation, heat transport and carbon uptake. Wind‐forced ocean perturbation experiments commonly apply idealized poleward wind shifts ranging between 0.5 and 10 degrees of latitude and wind intensification factors of between 10% and 300%. In addition, changes in winds are often prescribed ad hoc as a zonally uniform anomaly that neglects important regional and seasonal differences. Here we quantify historical and projected SH westerly wind changes based on examination of CMIP5, CMIP6, and reanalysis data. We find a significant reduction in the location bias of the CMIP6 ensemble and an associated reduction in the projected poleward shift compared to CMIP5. Under a high emission scenario, we find a projected end of 21st Century ensemble mean wind increase of ∼10% and a poleward shift of ∼0.8° latitude, although there are important seasonal and regional variations.

This work examines the life cycle of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) from composites of a large number of events. The events are sampled from idealized general circulation model (GCM) integrations and form a database of several hundred major, displacement, splitting, and weak vortex events. It is shown that except for a few details, the generic zonal-mean evolution does not depend on the definition used to detect SSWs. In all cases, the composites show the stratosphere in a positive annular mode phase prior to the events and a barotropic response in the stratosphere at onset. There is a clear positive peak in upward Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux prior to the onset date in the stratosphere and a much weaker peak in the troposphere, making the evolution more consistent with the picture of the stratosphere acting as a variable filter of tropospheric EP flux, rather than SSWs being forced by a strong “burst” in the troposphere. When comparing composites of SSWs from the database with apparent influence at the surface (downward “propagating”) to those without such influence, the only significant differences are a somewhat more barotropic response at the onset date and longer persistence in the lower stratosphere after the onset for propagating SSWs. There is no significant difference in EP flux between propagating and nonpropagating events, and none of the definitions considered here shows a particular skill in selecting propagating events.

Virtually collisionless magnetic mirror-trapped energetic ion populations often partially stabilize internally driven magnetohydrodynamic disturbances in the magnetosphere and in toroidal laboratory plasma devices such as the tokamak. This results in less frequent but dangerously enlarged plasma reorganization. unique to the toroidal magnetic configuration are confined 'circulating' energetic particles that are not mirror trapped. Here we show that a newly discovered effect from hybrid kinetic-magnetohydrodynamic theory has been exploited in sophisticated phase space engineering techniques for controlling stability in the tokamak. These theoretical predictions have been confirmed, and the technique successfully applied in the Joint European Torus. manipulation of auxiliary ion heating systems can create an asymmetry in the distribution of energetic circulating ions in the velocity orientated along magnetic field lines. We show the first experiments in which large sawtooth collapses have been controlled by this technique, and neoclassical tearing modes avoided, in high-performance reactor-relevant plasmas.