The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors

White, Ian; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Gerber, Edwin P.; Jucker, Martin; Aquila, Valentina; Oman, Luke D.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0053.1

Cited by 88 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…SSW events that are followed by a NAO event exhibit different tropospheric precursor patterns during the 10 days preceding the SSW event, with a significant positive geopotential height anomaly over Siberia as opposed to events that are not followed by a NAO event and opposite anomalies over the Arctic in the region of Northern Canada and Greenland. This suggests that the Siberian high acts as a precursor for SSW events with a downward effect, consistent with White et al ().…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…The patterns before the SSW events all exhibit a strong Aleutian low‐pressure system covering the SSW precursor region identified in Garfinkel et al (). A significant Siberian high‐pressure anomaly can be observed for the SSW events followed by a NAO event, which is consistent with White et al (), who found the Siberian high to be a characteristic of SSW events with a downward impact. The positive and negative anomalies over Siberia also both emerge in a cluster analysis of SSW precursors (Bao et al, ).…”

Section: Association Of Nao Events With Ssw Eventssupporting

confidence: 90%

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Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Domeisen

2019

JGR Atmospheres

110

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Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can exhibit long‐lasting surface impacts that promise improvements in medium‐range to seasonal predictability. Their surface impact is dominated by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Hence, the question arises if stratospheric variability, and in particular the frequency of SSW events, can in turn be estimated from surface NAO conditions. This is especially relevant for the period before frequent upper air observations became available, while daily surface observations of the NAO date back to 1850. The surface impact is here quantified by NAO characteristics that are commonly observed after SSW events: a switch from a positive to a negative NAO and an extended persistence of the negative NAO, termed NAO events. Two thirds of SSW events are found to be followed by either a persistence or switch NAO event, and a quarter of SSW events are followed by both. On the other hand, less than 25% of winter surface NAO events are preceded by a SSW event. Based on these findings, an index purely based on surface NAO observations is derived that estimates SSW frequency for the satellite era and extends it back to 1850, indicating that decadal stratospheric variability was present for the entire time series, with no significant trend. The minimum in SSW frequency in the 1990s is found to be coincident with the longest absence of NAO events since 1850, indicating that the early 1990s may constitute the longest absence of SSW events for the 150‐year record.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Association Of Nao Events With Ssw Eventssupporting

confidence: 90%

Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Domeisen

2019

JGR Atmospheres

110

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“…They argued that the main discriminating factor between propagating and non-propagating events is the lower-stratospheric circulation. White et al (2019) confirmed this result and additionally showed that propagating SSW cases are preceded by stronger tropospheric wave activity and a stronger Siberian high than their non-propagating counterparts. Kretschmer et al (2018) additionally showed, by applying a clustering technique to the lower-stratospheric circulation, that SSWs are linked to two main clusters in the lower-stratospheric circulation: SSWs that lead to a negative NAO response are dominated by their cluster 5 in the stratosphere, which exhibits a strong lower-stratospheric anticyclonic anomaly centred over the North Pole.…”

Section: 3supporting

confidence: 70%

“…White et al . () confirmed this result and additionally showed that propagating SSW cases are preceded by stronger tropospheric wave activity and a stronger Siberian high than their non‐propagating counterparts. Kretschmer et al .…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Stratospheric modulation of the large‐scale circulation in the Atlantic–European region and its implications for surface weather events

Beerli

Grams

2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex can have long‐lasting impacts on extratropical circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This provides windows of subseasonal predictability beyond the typical weather forecast horizon of about 10 days. Subseasonal forecasts of surface weather are of significant interest in weather‐dependent socio‐economic sectors. For example, demand and supply for electricity and gas are weather dependent and therefore accurate forecasts are important for the energy industry and energy trading. Here we investigate the subseasonal impact of stratospheric conditions on surface weather events relevant to the energy industry in five subregions of Europe in winter. We use a definition of seven Atlantic–European weather regimes to describe the variability of the large‐scale circulation on subseasonal time scales. Results indicate that weather events are often associated with more than one preferred weather regime. In turn, some weather regimes project onto a specific NAO phase, while others are independent of the NAO. As expected, anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states predominantly modulate the occurrence of regimes related to the NAO and affect the likelihood of their associated weather events. In contrast, the occurrence of weather regimes which do not project well onto the NAO is not affected by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states. These regimes provide pathways to unexpected weather events in extreme stratospheric polar vortex states. For example, weak stratospheric polar vortex states enhance the likelihood of negative NAO. High wind events in Central Europe predominantly occur during the zonal regime, strongly projecting onto positive NAO. However, these events also occur during the Atlantic trough regime, which is unaffected by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states and thus provides a pathway to Central European high wind events during weak stratospheric polar vortex states. A correct NAO prediction alone is therefore not sufficient to correctly predict surface weather after extreme stratospheric polar vortex states. Moreover, weather regime life cycles independent of the NAO also need to be forecast accurately.

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“…SSW events are often preceded by anomalously strong vertical propagation of waves into the extratropical stratosphere, and favorable tropospheric circulation patterns exist that promote such wave generation (e.g. Bao et al, ; Charlton & Polvani, ; Cohen & Jones, ; Domeisen, ; Garfinkel et al, ; Jucker & Reichler, ; Kolstad & Charlton‐Perez, ; Martius et al, ; White et al, ). Note that not all SSW events are preceded by significant tropospheric anomalies and there are a range of internal stratospheric processes that have been suggested to give rise to SSW events (Birner & Albers, ; de la Camara et al, ; Domeisen, Martius, & Jiménez‐Esteve, ; Esler & Matthewman, ; Matthewman & Esler, ; Plumb, ).…”

Section: Precursors and Remote Influences On The Nh Stratospherementioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling

et al. 2020

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The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S prediction systems to capture two important links between the stratosphere and troposphere: (1) changes in probabilistic prediction skill in the extratropical stratosphere by precursors in the tropics and the extratropical troposphere and (2) changes in surface predictability in the extratropics after stratospheric weak and strong vortex events. Probabilistic skill exists for stratospheric events when including extratropical tropospheric precursors over the North Pacific and Eurasia, though only a limited set of models captures the Eurasian precursors. Tropical teleconnections such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation increase the probabilistic skill of the polar vortex strength, though these are only captured by a limited set of models. At the surface, predictability is increased over the United States, Russia, and the Middle East for weak vortex events, but not for Europe, and the change in predictability is smaller for strong vortex events for all prediction systems. Prediction systems with poorly resolved stratospheric processes represent this skill to a lesser degree. Altogether, the analyses indicate that correctly simulating stratospheric variability and stratosphere‐troposphere dynamical coupling are critical elements for skillful S2S wintertime predictions.

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The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors

Cited by 88 publications

References 59 publications

Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Stratospheric modulation of the large‐scale circulation in the Atlantic–European region and its implications for surface weather events

The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling

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