Confidence in the health care system implies an expectation that sufficient and appropriate treatments will be provided if needed. The COVID-19 public health crisis is a significant, global, and (mostly) simultaneous test of the behavioral implications arising from this confidence. We explore whether populations reporting low levels of confidence in the health care system exhibit a stronger behavioral reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. We track the dynamic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across 38 European countries and 621 regions by employing a large dataset on human mobility generated between February 15 and June 5, 2020 and a broad range of contextual factors (e.g., deaths or policy implementations). Using a time-dynamic framework we find that societies with low levels of health care confidence initially exhibit a faster response with respect to staying home. However, this reaction plateaus sooner, and after the plateau it declines with greater magnitude than does the response from societies with high health care confidence. On the other hand, regions with higher confidence in the health care system are more likely to reduce mobility once the government mandates that its citizens are not to leave home except for essential trips, compared to those with lower health care system confidence. Regions with high trust in the government but low confidence in the health care system dramatically reduce their mobility, suggesting a correlation for trust in the state with respect to behavioral responses during a crisis.
COVID-19 has had far-reaching global effects on the health and wellbeing of individuals on every continent. The economic and financial market response has been equally disastrous with high levels of volatility. This study explores temporal relations between structural breaks, market volatility and government policy interventions for 28 countries and their respective financial market indices.File description:Scripts:breaks.do – test for the unknown structural breaks in the turnover data.turnover.do – merge the mobility dataset (change in mobility to residential), stay-at-home policy, COVID stats, and turnover. It also generates the dataset for the R code (should upload yours) and the rest of the analysis.hurstexponent.R - estimates/calculates log returns, performs STL Decomposition and MFDFA analysis. Data:mobility.dat - Google mobility databloomberg_turnover.dat - Raw traded value from Bloombergturnover.do - merged traded value datacsse.dat - COVID-19 statisticsPlease contact steven.bickley@hdr.qut.edu.au for questions and refer to our accompanying paper. Recommended Citation: TBAData use policy: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY standard.
Trust in the health care system requires being confident that sufficient and appropriate treatments will be provided if needed. The COVID-19 public health crisis is a significant, global, and (mostly) simultaneous test of the behavioral implications arising from this trust. We explore whether populations reporting low levels of confidence in the health care system exhibit a stronger behavioral reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. We track the dynamic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across 38 countries and 621 regions by exploiting a large dataset on human mobility generated between February 15 and June 5, 2020 and a broad range of contextual factors (e.g. deaths or policy implementations). Using a time-dynamic framework we find that societies with low levels of health care confidence initially exhibit a faster response with respect to staying home. However, this reaction plateaus sooner, and after the plateau it declines with greater magnitude than does the response from societies with high health care confidence. On the other hand, regions with higher confidence in the health care system are more likely to reduce mobility once the government mandates that its citizens are not to leave home except for essential trips, compared to those with lower health care system confidence. Regions with high trust in the government but low confidence in the health care system dramatically reduce their mobility, suggesting a correlation for trust in the state with respect to behavioral responses during a crisis.
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