Abstract. Low oxygen conditions, often referred to as oxygen deficiency, occur regularly in the North Sea, a temperate European shelf sea. Stratification represents a major process regulating the seasonal dynamics of bottom oxygen, yet, lowest oxygen conditions in the North Sea do not occur in the regions of strongest stratification. This suggests that stratification is an important prerequisite for oxygen deficiency, but that the complex interaction between hydrodynamics and the biological processes drives its evolution.In this study we use the ecosystem model HAMSOM-ECOHAM to provide a general characterisation of the different zones of the North Sea with respect to oxygen, and to quantify the impact of the different physical and biological factors driving the oxygen dynamics inside the entire subthermocline volume and directly above the bottom.With respect to oxygen dynamics, the North Sea can be subdivided into three different zones: (1) a highly productive, non-stratified coastal zone, (2) a productive, seasonally stratified zone with a small sub-thermocline volume, and (3) a productive, seasonally stratified zone with a large subthermocline volume. Type 2 reveals the highest susceptibility to oxygen deficiency due to sufficiently long stratification periods ( > 60 days) accompanied by high surface productivity resulting in high biological consumption, and a small subthermocline volume implying both a small initial oxygen inventory and a strong influence of the biological consumption on the oxygen concentration.Year-to-year variations in the oxygen conditions are caused by variations in primary production, while spatial differences can be attributed to differences in stratification and water depth. The large sub-thermocline volume dominates the oxygen dynamics in the northern central and northern North Sea and makes this region insusceptible to oxygen deficiency. In the southern North Sea the strong tidal mixing inhibits the development of seasonal stratification which protects this area from the evolution of low oxygen conditions. In contrast, the southern central North Sea is highly susceptible to low oxygen conditions (type 2).We furthermore show that benthic diagenetic processes represent the main oxygen consumers in the bottom layer, consistently accounting for more than 50 % of the overall consumption. Thus, primary production followed by remineralisation of organic matter under stratified conditions constitutes the main driver for the evolution of oxygen deficiency in the southern central North Sea. By providing these valuable insights, we show that ecosystem models can be a useful tool for the interpretation of observations and the estimation of the impact of anthropogenic drivers on the North Sea oxygen conditions.

Oxygen (O 2 ) deficiency, i.e., dissolved O 2 concentrations below 6 mg O 2 L −1 , is a common feature in the southern North Sea. Its evolution is governed mainly by the presence of seasonal stratification and production of organic matter, which is subsequently degraded under O 2 consumption. The latter is strongly influenced by riverine nutrient loads, i.e., nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). As riverine P loads have been reduced significantly over the past decades, this study aims for the quantification of the influence of riverine and non-riverine N inputs on the O 2 dynamics in the southern North Sea. For this purpose, we present an approach to expand a nutrient-tagging technique for physical-biogeochemical models -often referred to as 'trans-boundary nutrient transports' (TBNT) -by introducing a direct link to the O 2 dynamics. We apply the expanded TBNT to the physical-biogeochemical model system HAMSOM-ECOHAM and focus our analysis on N-related O 2 consumption in the southern North Sea during 2000-2014. The analysis reveals that near-bottom O 2 consumption in the southern North Sea is strongly influenced by the N supply from the North Atlantic across the northern shelf edge. However, riverine N sources -especially the Dutch, German and British rivers -as well as the atmosphere also play an important role. In the region with lowest simulated O 2 concentrations (around 56 • N, 6.5 • E), riverine N on average contributes 39% to overall near-bottom O 2 consumption during seasonal stratification. Here, the German and the large Dutch rivers constitute the highest riverine contributions (11% and 10%, respectively). At a site in the Oyster Grounds (around 54.5 • N, 4 • E), the average riverine contribution adds up to 41%, even exceeding that of the North Atlantic. Here, highest riverine contributions can be attributed to the Dutch and British rivers adding up to almost 28% on average. The atmospheric contribution results in 13%. Our results emphasize the importance of anthropogenic N inputs and seasonal stratification for the O 2 conditions in the southern North Sea. They further suggest that reductions in the riverine and atmospheric N inputs may have a relevant positive effect on the O 2 levels in this region.

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We employed a coupled physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for the reconstruction of the historic (H), pre-industrial state of a coastal system, the German Bight (southeastern North Sea), and we investigated its differences with the recent, control (C) state of the system. According to our findings: i) average winter concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIN and DIP) concentrations at the surface are ∼70-90% and ∼50-70% lower in the H state than in the C state within the nearshore waters, and differences gradually diminish towards off-shore waters; ii) differences in average growing season chlorophyll a (Chl) concentrations at the surface between the two states are mostly less than 50%; iii) in the off-shore areas, Chl concentrations in the deeper layers are affected less than in the surface layers; iv) reductions in phytoplankton carbon (C) biomass under the H state are weaker than those in Chl, due to the generally lower Chl:C ratios; v) in some areas the differences in growth rates between the two states are negligible, due to the compensation by lower light limitation under the H state, which in turn explains the lower Chl:C ratios; vi) zooplankton biomass, and hence the grazing pressure on phytoplankton is lower under the H state. This trophic decoupling is caused by the low nutritional quality (i.e., low N:C and P:C) of phytoplankton. These results call for increased attention to the relevance of the acclimation capacity and stoichiometric flexibility of phytoplankton for the prediction of their response to environmental change.

Hydrodynamic Ocean Circulation Models and Lagrangian particle tracking models are valuable tools e.g. in coastal ecology to identify the connectivity between offshore spawning and coastal nursery areas of commercially important fish, for risk assessment and more for defining or evaluating marine protected areas. Most studies are based on only one model and do not provide levels of uncertainty. Here this uncertainty was addressed by applying a suite of 11 North Sea models to test what variability can be expected concerning connectivity. Different notional test cases were calculated related to three important and well-studied North Sea fish species: herring (Clupea harengus), and the flatfishes sole (Solea solea) and plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). For sole and plaice we determined which fraction of particles released in the respective spawning areas would reach a coastal marine protected area. For herring we determined the fraction located in a wind park after a predefined time span. As temperature is more and more a focus especially in biological and global change studies, furthermore inter-model variability in temperatures experienced by the virtual particles was determined. The main focus was on the transport variability originating from the physical models and thus biological behavior was not included. Depending on the scenario, median experienced temperatures differed by 3. °C between years. The range between the different models in one year was comparable to this temperature range observed between modelled years. Connectivity between flatfish spawning areas and the coastal protected area was highly dependent on the release location and spawning time. No particles released in the English Channel in the sole scenario reached the protected area while up to 20 of the particles released in the plaice scenario did. Interannual trends in transport directions and connectivity rates were comparable between models but absolute values displayed high variations. Most models showed systematic biases during all years in comparison to the ensemble median, indicating that in general interannual variation was represented but absolute values varied. In conclusion: variability between models is generally high and management decisions or scientific analysis using absolute values from only one single model might be biased and results or conclusions drawn from such studies need to be treated with caution. We further concluded that more true validation data for particle modelling are required. © 2017 Elsevier B.V

Processes of stratification and destratification in the German Bight region of fresh water influence (ROFI) are investigated following an extreme river discharge event in June 2013. For this purpose, a high‐resolution baroclinic ocean model is set up and validated against field data. The model results are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of stratification and the duration of persistent stratification in 2013. The relevant processes affecting stratification are investigated by analyzing the potential energy anomaly budget, with a focus on mixing and tidal straining. It is shown that the stratification in the German Bight is highly affected by the spring‐neap tidal cycle, with generally less stratification at spring tides due to dominant tidal mixing. It is also shown that the location of the river plume can modify this pattern. During spring tides, if the river plume is confined to the eastern region, stratification decreases significantly, as expected, due to the dominance of mixing over tidal straining. On the other hand, if the river plume moves toward deeper regions at spring tides, strong tidal straining becomes present. In this condition, mixing is weak, and the dominant tidal straining results in persistent stratification.

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