Background: Lung cancer screening is already implemented in the USA and strongly recommended by European Radiological and Thoracic societies as well. Upon implementation, the total number of thoracic computed tomographies (CT) is likely to rise significantly. As shown in previous studies, modern artificial intelligence-based algorithms are on-par or even exceed radiologist’s performance in lung nodule detection and classification. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an AI-based system in the context of baseline lung cancer screening. Methods: In this retrospective study, a decision model based on Markov simulation was developed to estimate the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and lifetime costs of the diagnostic modalities. Literature research was performed to determine model input parameters. Model uncertainty and possible costs of the AI-system were assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: In the base case scenario CT + AI resulted in a negative incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as compared to CT only, showing lower costs and higher effectiveness. Threshold analysis showed that the ICER remained negative up to a threshold of USD 68 for the AI support. The willingness-to-pay of USD 100,000 was crossed at a value of USD 1240. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed model robustness for varying input parameters. Conclusion: Based on our results, the use of an AI-based system in the initial low-dose CT scan of lung cancer screening is a feasible diagnostic strategy from a cost-effectiveness perspective.
ImportanceDifferentiating between malignant and benign etiology in large-bowel wall thickening on computed tomography (CT) images can be a challenging task. Artificial intelligence (AI) support systems can improve the diagnostic accuracy of radiologists, as shown for a variety of imaging tasks. Improvements in diagnostic performance, in particular the reduction of false-negative findings, may be useful in patient care.ObjectiveTo develop and evaluate a deep learning algorithm able to differentiate colon carcinoma (CC) and acute diverticulitis (AD) on CT images and analyze the impact of the AI-support system in a reader study.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsIn this diagnostic study, patients who underwent surgery between July 1, 2005, and October 1, 2020, for CC or AD were included. Three-dimensional (3-D) bounding boxes including the diseased bowel segment and surrounding mesentery were manually delineated and used to develop a 3-D convolutional neural network (CNN). A reader study with 10 observers of different experience levels was conducted. Readers were asked to classify the testing cohort under reading room conditions, first without and then with algorithmic support.Main Outcomes and MeasuresTo evaluate the diagnostic performance, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for all readers and reader groups with and without AI support. Metrics were compared using the McNemar test and relative and absolute predictive value comparisons.ResultsA total of 585 patients (AD: n = 267, CC: n = 318; mean [SD] age, 63.2 [13.4] years; 341 men [58.3%]) were included. The 3-D CNN reached a sensitivity of 83.3% (95% CI, 70.0%-96.6%) and specificity of 86.6% (95% CI, 74.5%-98.8%) for the test set, compared with the mean reader sensitivity of 77.6% (95% CI, 72.9%-82.3%) and specificity of 81.6% (95% CI, 77.2%-86.1%). The combined group of readers improved significantly with AI support from a sensitivity of 77.6% to 85.6% (95% CI, 81.3%-89.3%; P < .001) and a specificity of 81.6% to 91.3% (95% CI, 88.1%-94.5%; P < .001). Artificial intelligence support significantly reduced the number of false-negative and false-positive findings (NPV from 78.5% to 86.4% and PPV from 80.9% to 90.8%; P < .001).Conclusions and RelevanceThe findings of this study suggest that a deep learning model able to distinguish CC and AD in CT images as a support system may significantly improve the diagnostic performance of radiologists, which may improve patient care.
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