The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from −20% to more than −50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.

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The mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone. Surface climate impacts of north-south summer JSL displacements are not uniform across Europe, but rather create a northwestern-southeastern dipole in forest productivity and radial-growth anomalies. Summer JSL variability over the eastern North Atlantic-European domain (5-40E) exerts the strongest impact on European beech, inducing anomalies of up to 30% in modelled gross primary productivity and 50% in radial tree growth. The net effects of JSL movements on terrestrial carbon fluxes depend on forest density, carbon stocks, and productivity imbalances across biogeographic regions.

Извод: У раду је истраживан утицај температуре и падавина на прираст стабала културе црног бора на подручју планине Рудник. У ту сврху је узето 50 серија радијалног прираста, из 25 доминантних стабала. Поменути утицај анализиран је применом три процедуре: корелације између сезонских величина температуре и падавина и RES хронологије индекса радијалног прираста, корелације између месечних температура и падавина и RES хронологије индекса радијалног прираста и тзв. одзивне функције. Резултати су показали да је црни бор у датим условима веома сензитиван према износима падавина у летњим месецима, на тај начин да веће количине падавина у лето проузрокују статистички значајно веће износе прираста. Варирање прираста много мање је условљено варијацијама температуре, при чему је регистрован слаб негативан утицај виших јулских температура на величину прираста. Закључено је да је реакција црног бора на овом локалитету у погледу прираста и његове зависности од климе слична реакцији црног бора у Србији и земљама у непосредном окружењу, које се карактеришу сродним климатским условима.

This study was mainly aimed at constructing polymorphic site index curves for beech in the central (Rudnik mountain – RU, about 15,000 ha) and eastern (Žagubica – ŽA, about 7,000 ha) part of its distribution in Serbia. To obtain suitable height-age data and evaluate the best-fit growth model we used 107 felled dominant beech trees. The Korf, Korsun and Chapman-Richards growth functions per site class were first parameterized and then mutually compared with respect to residual statistics and the significance of their parameters. They were additionally parameterized in line with empirical data on the value and age of the culmination of current annual height increment (CAI_h). The obtained results indicated that the Chapman-Richards growth function showed the best results both by statistical (residuals standard error, significance of the parameters, distribution of residuals, and homoscedasticity) and by empirical criteria (the CAI_h culmination time, the maximal values of the CAI_h, and the attained height of trees at a certain age) of the height-age beech modelling in the analyzed regions. The obtained polymorphic site index curves which classify sites with regard to their productivity can be very helpful in planning appropriate silvicultural treatments, and for decision-making in forest management planning, forest policy and ecology and, consequently, in the sustainable management of beech forests in Serbia and some neighbouring countries with a similar forestry sector development.